This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.. (ARZ vs WAS) vs Benjamin St-Juste
Harrison has bounced back since a disappointing week 1 with touchdowns in each of the last two weeks. This week, he will face a Washington team that was unable to turn over or make the Bengals punt once last week. St-Juste struggled against Ja'Marr Chase and has allowed 0.63 fantasy points per coverage snap. Washington ranks 31st overall against the pass, and the entire Arizona offense is primed to have a big game this weekend. Look for Kyler Murray to spread the ball around and have a big game with Harrison on the outside.
WR Rome Odunze (CHI vs LAR) vs Tre'Davious White
It was a fight over the touchdown ball between Caleb Williams and Odunze last week when they both scored the first touchdown of their careers. However, that feeling may quickly be replicated again this week with Odunze having a top matchup against White. The former Bills corner is currently allowing 0.83 fantasy points per coverage snap and was outplayed by Jauan Jennings last week. Look for the Williams-to-Odunze connection to go off this week in a prime matchup.
WR Malik Nabers (NYG vs DAL) vs Caelen Carson
In the past, it would have been easy to assume that Trevon Diggs would shadow Nabers, but Dallas has kept their corners on a single side and played a lot of zone this season. Nabers can easily escape Diggs by simply lining up on the other side. Carson has been torched for 0.68 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 24% of the time. Look for Nabers to line up all over the field and avoid Diggs through simple motion to the other side. Nabers should continue his elite production despite the shaky quarterback play.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs DET) vs Carlton Davis
Metcalf exploded in what should have been a tough matchup against Christian Watson last week. He had 10 catches for over 100 yards and a touchdown. This week, he has a prime matchup against Davis on the outside and could do even more damage. With Keneth Waler injured, Seattle has been throwing the ball to their top receivers and finding success. Davis is currently allowing 0.55 fantasy points per coverage snap and could see that number balloon even higher with a tough matchup against Seattle.
WR Tank Dell (HOU vs JAX) vs Montaric Brown
Houston struggled last week against Minnesota but will get a great matchup against a floundering Jacksonville team. Brown has been targeted on 26% of his coverage snaps and is allowing 0.49 fantasy points per snap. He is being picked on opposite Ronald Darby. This should open things up for Dell, as Nico Collins should see a lot of Darby on the other side. Look for Houston to bounce back as a whole against Jacksonville this week.
WR Chris Godwin (TB vs PHI) vs Avonte Maddox
Godwin has been one of the most consistent receivers early this season. Mike Evans is seeing the toughest coverage on the outside, and Godwin is being heavily targeted across the middle. He currently leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards. Godwin also has a top matchup against Maddox and an Eagles' secondary that is allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing slot players. Maddox is being targeted 25% of the time and is allowing 0.39 fantasy points per coverage snap. Look for Godwin to have another big game against the Eagles.
TE Dallas Goedert (PHI vs TB)
Goedert exploded last week for 170 yards on 11 targets. He is one of the only healthy options in the offense right now with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith injured. He also has a great matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends dating back to last season. The combination of volume and matchup should make Goedert one of the top-scoring tight ends in week 4.
TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF vs BAL)
Kincaid finally put up a respectable stat line in Week 3 by scoring a touchdown and registering 13.1 fantasy points. Buffalo played ahead of Jacksonville for the entire game, and Kincaid was not needed after the first half. He easily could have had an even bigger game. This week, he gets a Ravens defense that has allowed the 2nd most PPR points to opposing tight ends going back to last season. At a thing tight end position, look for Kincaid to have a top-10 finish this week.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Garrett Wilson (NYJ vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Surtain is proving to be one of the toughest matchups of the season, no matter who the WR is. He has currently held George Pickens, DK Metcalf, and Mike Evans to a combined 7 catches for 75 yards on 11 targets. The Broncos are playing the highest rate of man coverage in the league and are currently allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. The chemistry between Aaron Rodgers and Wilson is still developing, and this is a matchup to avoid, if possible, this week.
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs GB) vs Jaire Alexander
Jefferson is usually one of the most matchup-proof WRs in the NFL. However, Alexander has proven to be his only kryptonite based on their previous matchups. They did not match up at all in 2023, with one or the other being injured during both games, but in 2022, Alexander won both matchups. Jefferson has managed just 4 catches for 41 total yards across multiple matchups with Alexander. This is a tough call and will likely depend on what type of league you are in. The overall volume for Jefferson in this offense should be enough to carry you in a season-long setting, but the likely price and tough matchup make Jefferson a player to avoid in DFS settings.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs NE) vs Christian Gonzalez
Despite being one of the only healthy options for the 49ers, Aiyuk has struggled so far this season. However, he is likely to still be treated as the WR1 this week and will see the shadow treatment from Gonzalez on the outside. While some other big receivers have had success against Gonzalez this season, the emergence of Jauan Jennings and the struggles of Aiyuk make this a matchup to avoid. Look for Gonzalez to bounce back from his tough games against DK Metcalf and Garret Wilson and to lock down Aiyuk on the outside.
WR Michael Pittman Jr. (IND vs PIT) vs Joey Porter Jr..
Avoiding the Pittsburgh defense as a whole is a good rule to keep early this season. Porter has shadowed Drake London, Courtland Sutton, and Quentin Johnston across three weeks and has rarely been targeted. The defense as a whole is allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and the 2nd fewest to perimeter receivers. Pittman has also gotten off to a slow start, with Anthony Richardson struggling to get the ball to him consistently. Try to avoid the Indianapolis wide receiver room while their quarterback works on consistency and accurately getting them the ball.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs NYJ) vs Sauce Gardner
The Broncos are coming off a big road win against Tampa Bay, but now are going to run into the buzz saw secondary that is the Jets. D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II have bounced back from injury, and this defense is running on all cylinders. Gardner remains an elite cover corner who locks down anyone on his side. The Jets currently allow the 11th fewest fantasy points to receivers overall and the fewest to the outside. Sutton lines up on the perimeter 82% of the time and will see a lot of Garnder and Reed. Avoid the Denver offense this week with a tougher-than-usual matchup against the Jets defense.
WR Zay Flowers (BAL vs BUF) vs Rasul Douglas
The overhaul of the Buffalo defense has shown positive results right away. The squad is currently allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points overall to receivers and the 5th fewest to the perimeter. Douglas is playing particularly well on the outside, currently allowing just 0.15 fantasy points per coverage snap, and is being targeted just 11% of the time. Even with Buffalo playing ahead and teams throwing to catch up, this defense continues to rise to the occasion. Downgrade the Baltimore receiving group this week in a tough matchup on Sunday night.
TE Hunter Henry (NE vs SF)
Henry was one of the top additions a week ago, coming off an 18.9-point finish. He followed that up with a sub-3-point dud. He has now scored fewer than 4 points in two out of three games this season and saw his snap percentage drop with Austin Hooper emerging on the other side. Henry also has a tough matchup against a 49ers defense who have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Keep Henry on the bench until he consistently shows he is a part of this offense.
TE Jonnu Smith (MIA vs TEN)
It was easy to think Smith would be a safety blanket for whoever played quarterback for the Dolphins. Unfortunately, it did not matter who was under center last week; they struggled to move the ball. Smith scored just 3.8 points, and Tennessee has been tough on tight ends. The Titans have allowed just one tight end to eclipse 11 points against them going back to last season. The tough matchup, paired with the ineptitude at quarterback right now, has Miami as an offense to avoid.
