This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs LAR) vs Tre'Davious White
The Rams' secondary has completely fallen flat so far this year. They have allowed a combined 9 catches for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns to Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jameson Williams so far this year. White has looked like a shell of the player he was in Buffalo and this defense is going to see a lot of extra work as the offense struggles with injuries to their star players. Aiyuk is also due a bump in targets with Debo Samuel expected to miss several weeks with a calf injury. The Rams have faced the 6th fewest targets for receivers but are still allowing the 11th most fantasy points. Capitalize on the struggle this week and start Aiyuk and the rest of the 49ers' offense.
WR Drake London (ATL vs KC) vs Jaylen Watson
London and the Atlanta offense woke up last week against the Eagles. Kirk Cousins led a 4th quarter game-winning touchdown drive during a prime-time game and London caught the pass. Watson and the KC secondary have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing receivers so far this year and top corner, Trent McDuffie, continues to slide into the slot where he has excelled in coverage. London should see at least 50% of his routes covered by Watson and has a chance to put up a big game this week against the Chiefs.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.. (ARZ vs DET) vs Carlton Davis
The panic surrounding Harrison from week 1 was short-lived as he went out and dominated in week 2. The rookie receiver found the endzone twice in the 1st quarter and was a prominent feature in the offense. This week he will have the pleasure of lining up against Davis and a struggling Lions' secondary. The veteran corner is currently allowing 0.56 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 32% of the time. Chris Godwin had a big game against the Lions last week and Harrison is in a position to do the same thing. Look for Kyler Murray to target his new weapon early and often this week.
WR Jerry Jeudy (CLE vs NYG) vs Cor'Dale Flott
The offensive struggles of Cleveland aside, Jeudy is in a prime spot to do damage this week. The Giants have struggled on all sides of the ball, but the defense continues to be overworked more than anyone else. With Deonte Banks shadowing Amari Cooper, Flott is slated to cover Jeudy. The young corner has allowed 0.61 fantasy points per coverage snap and is targeted 19% of the time. He is being targeted a relatively low amount, but continues to give up big plays and touchdowns. If you are looking for a deep sleeper this week, Jeudy has one of the more favorable matchups against the Giants.
WR DJ Moore (CHI vs IND) vs Jaylon Jones
The Bears offense continues to look like a trap, but the matchup against the Colts is too hard to pass up. The zone-heavy scheme plays right into Moore's strength, and all we need is for Caleb Williams to get him the ball. The Colts are currently allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the 4th most to the outside. Moore has shown his catch-and-run ability last year and just needs a chance to catch a seam this week. Look for at least one big play for Moore and for this Bears offense to finally breathe some life into their season. Jones is currently allowing 0.46 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 26% of the time.
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs BAL) vs Marlon Humphrey
Humphrey is one of the better cover slow corners in the league, but he has struggled with some tough matchups to start the season. He is currently allowing 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Lamb continues to be the most consistent part of the Dallas offense and was set to have a much bigger game last week before Dallas was blown out by the Saints. Look for a quick bounceback for Lamb this week against Baltimore.
TE Brock Bowers (LV vs CAR)
Bowers has quickly emerged as one of the top tight ends this season. He is already commanding a 25% target share in this offense with just a single target fewer than Davante Adams. He has finished as a top 3 tight end in each of the first two weeks and is TE2 overall in total scoring. The rookie is having a phenomenal start to his career and is walking into a great matchup against Carolina.
TE Hunter Henry (NE vs NYJ)
It may feel too early and that there are not enough injuries or Bye weeks to be considering Henry, but he is quietly putting together a great start to the season. Henry led all tight ends with 12 targets last week and finished TE2. He currently leads the Patriots in targets, catches, and yards. That elite level of usage is impossible to ignore. Start Henry while he is hot and cash in on the Patriots not having any other offensive weapons.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Mike Evans (TB vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Surtain has quickly turned into a cornerback matchup to avoid every week. He has already shadowed George Pickens and DK Metcalf so far this season and held them to a combined 5 catches for 58 yards on 8 targets. Evans may be able to escape to the slot where he lines up nearly 20% of the time, but there is always the chance Surtain follows. This should be the toughest matchup of the season for Evans and a situation to avoid if possible. Look for Baker Mayfield to target Chris Godwin heavily this week with a much easier matchup against Riley Moss.
WR Garrett Wilson (NYJ vs NE) vs Christian Gonzalez
Gonzalez does not currently carry the same name recognition of Surtain above, but he is quickly becoming one of the best young cover corners in the NFL. DK Metcalf broke a big play last week against the New England defense and that has skewed the early numbers. However, Gonzalez locked down Ja'Marr Chase in week 1 and did not solely cover Metcalf last week when he exploded. Expect Wilson to see Gonzalez on 60-70% of routes this week. He should be downgraded early as the Jets have not established an offensive identity and he has one of the tougher matchups of the week.
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs HOU) vs Derek Stingley Jr.
Jefferson is mostly matchup proof and has averaged nearly 100 yards per game across his career. There are a few things to monitor this week when it comes to this matchup. Jefferson is currently dealing with a thigh contusion that forced him out of the end of the game last week. Stingley has also proven adept at shadow coverage across his career. He did not have the best showing against the Colts earlier this season and struggled in the zone defense. We can expect him back in a shadow role this week where he has excelled in his career. There is no reason to panic about Jefferson, but we should monitor the injury the rest of the week and downgrade his overall projection slightly with the tougher matchup.
WR Amari Cooper (CLE vs NYG) vs Deonte Banks
The week 1 numbers on Banks were a false negative. He was tasked with covering Justin Jefferson but did not perform well. He quickly rebounded against Terry McLaurin in week 2 where he held the speedy receiver to 6 catches for 22 yards. Banks may have allowed 6 catches, but he was quick to react and even quicker to tackle. This week he will shadow a struggling Cooper and underperforming Deshaun Watson. This is a situation to avoid until the Browns can get some sort of offensive consistency going.
WR Christian Kirk (JAX vs BUF) vs Taron Johnson
Buffalo went through a major overhaul in the secondary and the results have been overwhelmingly positive. The group is currently allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and has allowed just 2 players to eclipse 50 receiving yards. Marvin Harrison Jr., Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle have all been held to under 50 yards and the Jacksonville receiving core has struggled to get anything going. Kirk is likely riding the bench in many leagues after posting back-to-back duds to start the season. The Jacksonville offense is struggling right now, and this is not the week for them to get back on track.
WR Zay Flowers (BAL vs DAL) vs Trevon Diggs
The Dallas defense did not look great last week against New Orleans, but it was Alvin Kamara who did most of the damage out of the backfield. Diggs has continued to play well at corner and has been giving up fewer big plays this season. He is currently allowing just 0.14 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 14% of the time. Flowers is the top receiving option for the Ravens, but he is going to find it hard to run against Diggs. Look for Lamar Jackson to work the ball to Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely across the middle while Flowers garners the attention of Diggs on the outside.
TE Dalton Schultz (HOU vs MIN)
There is simply not enough volume to go around in this Houston offense. Through 2 games, Schultz currently has 5 catches for 37 yards and a single-digit total of fantasy points. The three-headed monster at receiver is eating into his production and Joe Mixon is taking the remaining offensive snaps on the ground. Schultz is a touchdown-dependent tight end who does not see looks in the red zone. Avoid this situation at all cost.
TE Colby Parkinson (LAR vs SF)
This felt like such a great spot to target last week. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua down with injury, Parkinson should have seen a big jump in targets. Unfortunately, he only saw 2 targets for 1 catch and 12 yards. Matthew Stafford spread the ball around and did not focus on any one player to make up for the loss of his big weapons. The Rams are going to struggle and even with potential volume there for the taking, this is a situation to avoid.
