This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs NYG) vs Adoree' Jackson
The Giants have the same corners on the outside that finished the season, allowing the 4th most receptions and 5th most fantasy points to opposing receivers. While the Vikings may struggle initially with Sam Darnold under center, Jefferson has proven he can catch the ball from anyone, and he should be targeted early and often with T.J. Hockenson out to start the year. Look for the offense in Minnesota to run even more through Jefferson to start the season and for a big Week 1 with a favorable matchup against a poor New York secondary.
WR Stefon Diggs (HOU vs IND) vs JuJu Brents
Diggs has found himself a new home in Houston and a great matchup in Week 1. The Colts as a whole ranked near the middle of the pack in receptions allowed and fantasy points to opposing receivers, but Brents was one of the weaker links last season. Brents allowed 0.45 fantasy points per coverage snap and was targeted 24% of the time when in coverage. Diggs may have to contend with more of a target share issue than he did in Buffalo, but C.J. Stroud is great at spreading the ball around. Look for Diggs to kick off his new tenure in Houston with a bang in Week 1 against the Colts.
WR Puka Nacua (LAR vs DET) vs Carlton Davis III
Nacua exploded onto the scene last season and will look to continue his dominance in Week 1 against the Lions. Even with Cooper Kupp back and healthy, Nacua showed he can consistently get open and had a better nose for the end zone. He will see a lot of coverage from Davis despite lining up all over the field. Davis was targeted on 22% of his coverage snaps and allowed 0.43 fantasy points on those throws. Opposite Davis is rookie Terrion Branch, so both Kupp and Nacua should see a lot of targets this week. This is slated to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week and should not disappoint.
WR DeVonta Smith (PHI vs GB) vs Eric Stokes
The Eagles and Packers have the makings of a playoff matchup later down the road and should be one of the better games of Week 1. A.J. Brown will get his targets, but it is Smith on the other side with the better matchup this week. Stokes was prone to giving up the big play while allowing 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap and only being targeted 16% of the time. Smith has the ability to stretch the field and has a great shot at a long touchdown this week against Green Bay.
WR Malik Nabers (NYG vs MIN) vs Byron Murphy II
The New York offense is not coming into the season with high expectations, but Nabers has a chance to set the tone in Week 1 with a great matchup against the Vikings. Murphy was one of the weak links in the secondary last season and will not have an easy time against Nabers this week. Last season, Murphy was targeted on 21% of coverage snaps and allowed 0.47 fantasy points per snap. The Vikings' defense was much improved last season but still allowed fantasy points to opposing receivers in bunches. Justin Jefferson also has a great matchup on the other side of the ball, but Nabers has a chance to steal the show against Murphy.
WR Ja'Marr Chase (CIN vs NE) vs Christian Gonzalez
Putting aside all of the practice and contract drama, if Chase suits up in Week 1, he has an elite matchup against Gonzalez on the outside. The young corner is projected to shadow Chase and should be in for a long day. Gonzalez was targeted 31% of the time and allowed 0.47 fantasy points per coverage snap last season. Joe Burrow and Chase have an established relationship, and there should be no drop-off due to missed practice time. Look for instant fireworks if Chase is on the field this week.
TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF vs ARZ)
Kincaid has a lot going for him this week against the Cardinals. Arizona is one of the top matchups for opposing tight ends, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points a season ago. Kincaid also benefits from the Bills losing almost their entire starting receiving core from last season and both major additions suffering some sort of preseason injury. The volume alone should make Kincaid a solid start this week and the great matchup is just an added benefit.
TE Evan Engram (JAX vs MIA)
Engram has a great matchup to start the season against Miami. The Dolphins allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and 7 total touchdowns. Jacksonville threw to their tight ends nearly 27% of the time and lost Calvin Ridley to free agency. Look for Engram to fill the target vacuum and easily put up a top-10 receiver finish in Week 1 at tight end.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Amari Cooper (CLE vs DAL) vs Trevon Diggs
It is hard to speculate what might have been if Diggs had not gotten hurt last season. The elite corner was shadowing top receivers and only allowing 0.08 fantasy points per coverage snap and was only being targeted 12% of the time. He seemed to have learned from his mistakes of always going for the interceptions and was not being burned for long touchdowns. As long as Diggs comes back fully healthy, it should be a nightmare for Cooper. Diggs will likely shadow the big receiver and make it difficult to find room to run all game. Downgrade Cooper in a tough matchup against Diggs and the Dallas defense.
WR Gabe Davis (JAX vs MIA) vs Jalen Ramsey
Ramsey missed a chunk of last season but then went on to play at a high level when he returned. Davis is playing with an entirely new team and will be asked to lead this receiver group on the outside. Through 351 snaps, Ramsey was targeted on 13% of coverage and allowed just 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap. There are going to be some growing pains in the Jacksonville offense to start the season, and Davis has a particularly tough matchup in Week 1.
WR Rashee Rice (KC vs BAL) vs Kyle Hamilton
Rice is by far the best receiving option for the Chiefs, but he is walking into the most difficult matchup against Baltimore this week. Hamilton has been a lockdown corner in the slot while allowing just 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted just 16% of the time. This is another early season matchup that could easily be a playoff game later in the year. This matchup will be one of the biggest keys to the game with the slight edge going to Baltimore and Hamilton.
WR George Pickens (PIT vs ATL) vs A.J. Terrell
Terrell was one of the best cover corners in the league last season and is projected to shadow Pickens in Week 1. He traveled with Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, and DeAndre Hopkins last season and will likely have a similar workload this year. Atlanta was one of the biggest man-coverage teams in the league last season, and Pittsburgh struggled mightily on offense throughout the preseason. Pickens should be downgraded in any format this week, with Terrell expected to be in coverage 80%+ of the time.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Surtain is the most likely corner to shadow in Week 1. Metcalf is the clear number 1 for Seattle and rarely travels inside, and Surtain has a history of traveling with the top receiver. Metcalf faced Surtain back in Week 1 of 2022 and caught 7 passes for just 36 yards. Surtain left nothing open and got the better of the big receiver. Geno Smith tends to spread the ball around and not focus on a single receiver. Metcalf can be considered touchdown-dependent this week in a tough matchup against Surtain and the Broncos.
WR Adam Thielen (CAR vs NO) vs Paulson Adebo
Carolina is not expected to make a major leap on offense coming into this season, but a regression from Thielen is likely. With Diontae Johnson coming over and slotting into the top receiver spot, Thielen will already be losing out on targets. Throw in a tough matchup against Adebo or Marson Lattimore on the other side, and Thielen is a player to avoid in Week 1. The Saints allowed the 9th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and are in a good spot to continue those numbers against the Panthers.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs TEN)
Kmet saw a resurgence last season and finished as a top 8 tight end. The only issue is that the Bears have undergone a complete overhaul on offense, and none of that benefits the big tight end. The Bears brought in Gerald Everett, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze this offseason. Kmet's biggest strength was in the red zone last year, and the new offensive scheme may limit those chances. On top of that, the Titans allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season. Kmet should be on the bench this week with a tough matchup.
TE Dalton Schultz (HOU vs IND)
Much like Kmet above, Schultz will feel the negative impact of off-season additions. Stefon Diggs will vacuum targets, while Joe Mixon will take away red-zone chances. Schultz has also only averaged 7.3 fantasy points in 3 career games against Indianapolis. Schultz will be touchdown-dependent most of the season unless there is a major injury.
