Reading the Defense is a weekly column that considers the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players' fantasy value. While analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.

The IDP Trade Market

Numerous resources exist to assist fantasy gamers with trading offense players in dynasty leagues. Footballguys alone has rankings, a value chart, and a trade calculator. Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase constitute the top tier of dynasty assets. Rookie receivers chosen on Day 1 of the NFL draft who have yet to emerge rank anywhere from 69 and 108. Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey have flashed and elevated their rankings into the top 50 players on Footballguys' dynasty board.

If one were to assume a linear relationship between these assets in value. One might trade Jefferson for the duo of McConkey and Thomas or a trio of Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, and Ricky Pearsall. The trade value chart, however, indicates that Jefferson's value is five times greater than that of Pearsall, who's barely played, or Coleman, who's now hurt.

IDP gamers en masse haven't figured out that the value curve is not unique to offense. Perhaps a lack of trading resources for defenders is a factor. Roquan Smith is the top fantasy linebacker according to Footballguys' IDP dynasty ranks. He parallels Justin Jefferson. Week 8's NFC Defensive Player of the Week, Edgerrin Cooper, is the Brian Thomas Jr. of this comparison. Like Keon Coleman, Junior Colson had the prime draft-day landing spot but couldn't capitalize in Year 1.

IDP gamers are too quick to deal a player like Roquan Smith for Junior Colson and a second-round pick in a future rookie draft. If Edgerrin Cooper went off the board in the early second round of a league's 2024 rookie draft, then Smith is solidly worth a first-round pick. Finding a trade partner for Smith – or any IDP – at that value will be difficult. Holding him will be the safest path to maintaining future roster value just as an offer of Coleman and Pearsall for Jefferson would amount to an immediate rejection without comment.

Trade Targets

Last week's edition of Reading the Defense offered players that dynasty and contract leaguers looking to 2025 should deal away. In the difficult IDP trade market, gamers should pay all the way up or all the way down. If gamers looking to 2025 are offering Roquan Smith, Fred Warner, T.J. Watt, and Brian Burns at deep discounts, as hypothesized above, contenders should pounce. Absent premium options, gamers should seek sneaky values. The options that follow are both recommended redraft and dynasty targets.

Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati

Any of several top edge defenders could be targeted in trade. IDP gamers struggle to adjust to the decrease in scarcity brought about by true-position designation. With little fanfare in a modest city, Trey Hendrickson has joined the elite tier of pass rushers by elevating his game in 2024. Ranking second in pass-rush win rate this year, he is bound to add to his 11.0 quarterback sacks in Weeks 15 and 16 versus the Titans and Browns. His Bengals face the league's most favorable remaining schedule for fantasy edge defenders, according to Footballguys' Strength-of-Schedule tool.

Here are all 4 sacks and 6 pressures from Trey Hendrickson from yesterday pic.twitter.com/iWb7OL2dRg

— mike (@bengals_sans) November 4, 2024

Josh Hines-Allen, Jacksonville

Fewer IDPs have been bigger disappointments to fantasy gamers than Josh Hines-Allen in 2024. The Jaguars' pass defense has ranked among the league's worst.

Jacksonville's best cornerback, Tyson Campbell, has returned to play from a preseason injury. The Jaguars face Will Levis and the Titans in Weeks 14 and 17, with the Jets and Raiders in between.

The risk with Allen is that he gets nicked up and shut down for the year as Jacksonville plays out the string. Hendrickson could pose the same risk if the Bengals can't beat the Chargers in a game head coach Zach Taylor called a one-game playoff.

30s of Josh Hines-Allen vs Cam Robinson pic.twitter.com/UqUQocg0j7

— Gus Logue (@gus_logue) November 11, 2024

Dayo Odeyingbo, Indianapolis

The Colts selected Dayo Odeyingbo in the second round of the 2021 NFL draft despite a torn Achilles suffered in January 2021. Odeyingbo played sparingly as a rookie gradually returning to form. He played rotationally for the next two years and only became a regular starter after injuries to Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis earlier in 2024.

Now in a contract year, Odeyingbo has begun to emerge, ranking 15th among NFL edge defenders in pass-rush win rate as tracked by NFL NextGen Stats and reported by ESPN. His Colts face the Titans and Giants in Weeks 16 and 17 as Odeyingbo builds a resume for unrestricted free agency next March.

D.J. Wonnum, Carolina

The Panthers traded away Brian Burns and backfilled their outside linebacker room with former South Carolina Gamecocks Jadeveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum. Wonnum's 2-year $12.5 million contract surprised many due not only to his performance as a Viking but also the torn quad he suffered last December.

Wonnum finally made his debut for a struggling Panthers' defense badly in need of pressure on the quarterback. He collected 6 combined tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 quarterback hits, and 1.0 sack in 50 snaps versus the Giants. His share of the defensive workload should only increase. Like Odeyingbo, he could be on waivers in shallow to medium-depth fantasy leagues, as noted in this Week's IDP Stock Report.

Blake Cashman, Minnesota

When Brian Flores coached the Dolphins, he relied as much on man coverage and a single high safety as anyone in the league. Now the Vikings' defensive coordinator, Flores, is among the leading practitioners of zone and two-high coverages.

Flores and the Vikings signed unrestricted free agent linebacker Blake Cashman to man the middle of this tackle-rich environment. Cashman has shown his ceiling in plus matchups like the 49ers in Week 2: 13 combined tackles, 3 passes defensed, and 1.0 sack.

Cashman returned from a three-week absence and recorded another sack against the Jaguars in Week 10; however, his 5 combined tackles in an anemic 12-7 win might have soured gamers on his rest-of-season outlook.

Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, Buffalo

Linebacker Matt Milano, an All-Pro in 2022, will soon debut in 2024 after a preseason injury. He's a must-add from waivers in redraft leagues because he's sure to play full-time as he returns to form. The floor of paying all the way down for linebackers must land at full-time players. The 30-year-old Milano has never been a tackle magnet and hasn't played a game in 13 months, so he might be easily acquirable in dynasty leagues too.

IDP gamers mistakenly assume that high tackle volume indicates high performance. Buffalo linebacker Dorian Williams has been a fantasy revelation with 93 tackles in just 10 games. He is also the league's second-most targeted linebacker behind Roquan Smith despite playing just 76 percent of the Bills' defensive snaps. Williams is affording himself tackle opportunities by allowing a completion percentage of 70.8.

In contrast, Williams's running mate, Terrel Bernard, has allowed 56.7 percent of 30 targets to be completed. With Milano resuming his starting role in place of Williams, Bernard's fantasy prospects also improve. The duo's fantasy relevance has arisen from big plays and should again as the Bills aim for a fifth consecutive AFC East title.

With Matt Milanos return coming soon due to his 21 day practice window opening yesterday here's some Matt Milano highlights! ? pic.twitter.com/omxRns0Tnk

— BillsMuse (@BillsMusee) November 13, 2024

Thanks for Reading!

Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify whom to target or fade and why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.