Links to all of this year's Reading the New Defense Articles
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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023 that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.
The Importance of Scheme and Deployment
2024 is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.
Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024
Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%
AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%
Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx
Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.
#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024
BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ???
SLOT: 9.6% ?
-- Average: 9.1% --
DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?
Changing Schemes
In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.
This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach Mike Macdonald has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.
Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald’s success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.
Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.
? Drew Rosenhaus, who represents multiple Miami Dolphins players, on Vic Fangio: “There were quite a few players that didn’t necessarily get along with Fangio. It wasn’t a great relationship with many of the players.” (@TheMozKnowz) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/cFIiVNgX7j
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) January 24, 2024
The innovation Vic Fangio advanced that Mike Macdonald employs is to build out coverages first and allocate remaining resources to run defense. This results in the “light box” – a total of six players along the defensive line and behind it at linebacker depth. Frequently, then, both safeties align deep, more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.
Dolphins defense baited the QB run from the Eagles on that last 3rd down.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 23, 2023
Eagles motion to Empty, Dolphins show a Quarters shell. But watch the Dolphins Safeties signaling.
Hurts checks into a direct QB run - which makes sense against a light box. Dolphins instead bring Cover 0 pic.twitter.com/GOdb72V1LW
Fangio describes his departure from Miami as a mutual decision. He further offers that he would have succeeded Jonathan Gannon in Philadelphia in 2023 had the timing of events, including Gannon’s recruitment by Arizona, happened differently. A Pennsylvania native, 65-year-old Fangio hopes his job with the Eagles will be his last.
Former Fangio assistant Sean Desai coordinated the 2023 Eagles’ defense. Desai was hired in part due to substantial similarities between his scheme and Fangio’s.
Head coach Nick Sirianni lost confidence in Desai’s game-planning midway through the season. Desai was sent to the booth and replaced by Matt Patricia as play-caller.
The defensive scheme remained Desai’s. The defenses in Philadelphia and Miami each underperformed for similar reasons. Fangio lost premium edge rushers to injury, while Haason Reddick had a down year in Philadelphia.
Miami’s Xavien Howard and Philly’s James Bradberry IV each seemed to fall off a cliff. Bradberry is trying to make the 2024 roster as a safety, while Howard is out of a job.
Inconsistency at linebacker and safety also hurt, but the big-money positions matter most to these defenses.
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Erecting Defensive Fronts
Coverage of Vic Fangio’s schematic tendencies is well documented in light of their widespread adoption across the league. The Philadelphia chapter of SB Nation offered intermediate-level analysis of the scheme as Eagles preseason football began. The first edition of the first season of this column at Footballguys.com previewed Fangio’s arrival in Miami.
In Philadelphia, Fangio will use odd and even fronts. Like most coordinators across the league, he will utilize 4-2-5 nickel subpackages roughly half the time. Base and penny personnel will both show five rushers. The latter includes just one off-ball linebacker.
Eagles Edge Defenders
Philadelphia traded Haason Reddick to the Jets for a future third-round draft pick. They used the cleared cap space to sign Bryce Huff away from the Jets in unrestricted free agency. Huff was by one measure the league’s most efficient pass rusher in 2023.
The Eagles got three-and-a-half years younger AND recouped an early draft pick in the process. Every fantasy gamer recognizes that as a win. The football question is whether the former Jets’ designated pass rusher can develop into a three-down player.
Back-to-back weeks of Bryce Huff showing he's no slouch vs. the run.
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) September 25, 2023
This guy is way too talented to be limited to obvious pass situations. Needs more 1st/2nd down reps so he can get as many pass-rush snaps as possible pic.twitter.com/m2Zpf10NV6
The underrated Josh Sweat returns at the other outside linebacker spot. The former fourth-round pick ranked among the top 20 edge rushers in pass-rush win rate according to ESPN reporting NFL NextGen Stats for a second straight season in 2023
Fifteen-year veteran Brandon Graham and sophomore Nolan Smith round out the regular four-man rotation.
Eagles Defensive Tackles
Jalen Carter was the best prospect coming into the 2023 NFL draft nearly by consensus. He looked the part early but faded down the stretch. Fangio notes that Carter and the team are working on his conditioning.
Carter will align at three-technique alongside nose tackle Jordan Davis. Milton Williams is the third interior lineman in odd fronts. Davis and Williams have each shown out as NFL-caliber players in limited reps. Stalwart Fletcher Cox led the position group in 2023 in snaps despite playing just 59 percent of the defense’s snaps.
For years, Philadelphia’s defensive line rotations have resembled platoons in which the second team substitutes for the first team en masse. The 2024 Eagles need Marlon Tuipulotu or Moro Ojomo to emerge as a viable option this month to keep the practice going.
Vic Fangio might conclude that his outside linebackers aren’t stout enough on the edge and rely heavily on penny personnel (5-1-5). In this scenario, Jalen Carter overcomes the volume limitations that have mired their pass rushers in boom/bust tiers for fantasy football. This scenario further assumes the former Georgia Bulldog, who slid in the draft over character concerns, is prepared for the 17-game NFL season.
Jalen Carter is filthy. pic.twitter.com/jTi4svQ8NQ
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 15, 2023
Building Out Coverages
Vic Fangio surprised many observers including this writer in 2023 by deploying Jalen Ramsey almost exclusively on the boundary opposite Xavien Howard and then calling zone coverages at high rates relative to the rest of the league. While other coaches like Mike Macdonald get more aggressive with press-man coverage, Fangio seemed to drift from it while coaching the Dolphins.
Eagles Cornerbacks
Darius Slay returns as the Eagles’ CB1. He’s long been one of the league’s best in man coverage, but at 33, his play has begun to decline.
First-round pick Quinyon Mitchell profiles as a strong zone defender; however, he impressed in man coverage at the Senior Bowl. Mitchell’s alma mater, Toledo ran quarters coverage extensively. Quarters more closely resembles off-man coverage than other zone coverages.
The Eagles used their top two picks this spring to improve their cornerback room. Second-rounder Cooper DeJean projects as a slot defender with inside-outside flexibility in Vic Fangio’s defense. Without fluid hips, DeJean may be not asked often to turn and run with slot receivers in press-man coverage.
The trio should play most of the Eagles’ cornerback snaps as the season wears on. Their experience and skill sets suggest Fangio will again highly utilize zone coverages from MOFO structures.
Eagles Safeties
Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson comprise the duo at the back end of Fangio’s defense. Gardner-Johnson returns to the scene of his best season. He was leading the league in interceptions when injury cut his 2022 short. After another injury-truncated season, that in Detroit, Gardner-Johnson will seek to stabilize a defensive backfield that cycled through multiple left safeties last year.
Eagles Linebackers
Devin White headlined articles naming “sell” candidates in dynasty fantasy football last fall. He fell out of favor and contract in Tampa Bay. As an employee, he could not have found a much softer landing than Philadelphia for 2024.
The Eagles’ starting linebacker duo of Devin White and Zack Baun evidences the subtle scheme changes Fangio brings to Philadelphia in place of Sean Desai. Fangio wants linebackers that can rush the passer in his simulated pressures. White and Baun attack from the second level while a player like Bryce Huff drops in coverage. Fangio wants linebackers that can shed blocks and run sideline to sideline to defend the run from light boxes. Fangio intends to stabilize the Eagles’ porous run defense while affording fewer bodies to it in 2024.
.@Eagles @DevinWhite__40 brings much needed Speed & Thump to Vic's Defense. Time to throw a "Hittin Party" in So Philly. Played just under 30 snaps thus far as they have rotated quite avfew players at ILB. #FlyEaglesFly #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/mOVkovFOjy
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) August 20, 2024
Incumbent starter Nakobe Dean is running with the second unit during the preseason but should still contribute. Fangio rotated his LB2 in Miami, utilizing David Long in base and Andrew Van Ginkel in nickel at the beginning of 2023. Fangio explains he prefers not to rotate but that skill sets can necessitate it. According to Pro Football Focus, Zack Baun has played a total of 180 snaps in pass coverage throughout his four-year career. Dean hasn’t proven himself in coverage either, but he profiles as an asset at the second level of pass defense.
2024 Eagles Outlook
Fantasy Fades
According to data collected by The IDP Show for dozens of best-ball leagues, fantasy gamers are drafting Nakobe Dean as though he is Philadelphia’s LB2. His average draft position of 44th among linebackers looks certain to disappoint based on preseason rotations.
Gamers are taking Cooper DeJean as though he can duplicate Brian Branch’s 2023. Injuries this summer have delayed DeJean’s competition for the starting slot role. His ADP indicates he’s drafters’ third choice at cornerback. He might not be his own team’s third cornerback on opening day.
Gamers are targeting C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Reed Blankenship as fantasy SAF2s. The Eagles could show more two-high-safety coverages this year than last. Each player has just one fantasy-relevant season on his resume and fits better as a third safety behind more certain options for opening day.
Fantasy gamers are betting on upside by selecting the Eagles’ second Day-1 pick of 2023 at 45 among edge defenders. Nolan Smith played only 188 snaps last season, a total that might need to triple to enable him to provide fantasy gamers a return on investment.
Bryce Huff is the first edge defender off the board in average fantasy drafts. Josh Sweat will almost certainly play more snaps. At 26th and 32nd among edge defenders, their ADPs are mistakenly reversed.
#Eagles DC Vic Fangio on EDGE Bryce Huff playing on all downs:
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) July 26, 2024
“Does he look like he can do it today … No. but I do think eventually he will.”
(? @EliotShorrParks) pic.twitter.com/5gaWUJcSK6
Fantasy Holds
Jalen Carter is the classic boom/bust fantasy pick. He has the talent and the path to volume to justify or even exceed his mid-DT1 draft status. The downside is severe if he runs afoul of the surly Fangio.
Carter’s interior running mate, Jordan Davis, fits rosters as a DT3. Draft options at tackle drop off earlier and more quickly than at other defensive positions.
Fantasy Values
Fantasy gamers have clearly heard that Brandon Graham announced his retirement. They missed, however, that the retirement is effective at the end of this season. Graham is free in fantasy drafts and fits as a spot starter. He and Josh Sweat have each proven themselves fantasy assets whom fantasy gamers should not overlook in favor of youth and uncertainty.
Devin White was 2020’s top overall IDP. His fall from grace among fantasy gamers has been slow and steady. In a significant rebound, White has LB1 upside in Fangio’s zone-heavy, two-high defense. His ADP of 28th among linebackers makes White one of the best draft-day values for shallow IDP leagues.
Zach Baun has reentered the radar after four quiet years in New Orleans. The preseason revelation fits deep rosters at a very low cost but needn’t be sought after in shallow leagues. Penny and dime personnel, coupled with his performance in coverage, could keep his snap counts below the 80 percent needed for weekly fantasy consideration.
Quinyon Mitchell ranked among FBS college football’s leaders in passes defensed in 2022 and 2023. He should win a full-time role opposite Darius Slay and revalidate Footballguy John Norton’s “rookie corner rule.”
Summer Plans
Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.
