Links to all of this year's Reading the New Defense Articles
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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023 that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.
The Importance of Scheme and Deployment
2024 is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.
Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024
Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%
AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%
Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx
Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.
#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024
BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ???
SLOT: 9.6% ?
-- Average: 9.1% --
DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?
Changing Schemes
In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.
This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach, Mike Macdonald, has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.
Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald’s success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.
Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.
? Drew Rosenhaus, who represents multiple Miami Dolphins players, on Vic Fangio: “There were quite a few players that didn’t necessarily get along with Fangio. It wasn’t a great relationship with many of the players.” (@TheMozKnowz) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/cFIiVNgX7j
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) January 24, 2024
The innovation Vic Fangio advanced that Mike Macdonald employs is to build out coverages first and allocate remaining resources to run defense. This results in the “light box” – a total of six players along the defensive line and behind it at linebacker depth. Frequently, then, both safeties align deep, more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.
Dolphins defense baited the QB run from the Eagles on that last 3rd down.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 23, 2023
Eagles motion to Empty, Dolphins show a Quarters shell. But watch the Dolphins Safeties signaling.
Hurts checks into a direct QB run - which makes sense against a light box. Dolphins instead bring Cover 0 pic.twitter.com/GOdb72V1LW
Shane Bowen, the new defensive coordinator of the New York Giants has evolved his defense to include more two-high-safety looks. Bowen, like Fangio, focuses on limiting explosive plays. He will place less emphasis on aggression and more on assignment-sound football. Bowen’s nine years of NFL experience include stints under Romeo Crenel in Houston and Mike Vrabel in Tennessee. He coordinated a Titans defense for three years that schematically stems from Bill Belichick’s Patriots.
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Erecting Defensive Fronts
The 2023 Giants blitzed nearly half the time. Only the Vikings under Brian Flores blitzed more often. Former coordinator Wink Martindale had defenders attacking downhill, making decisions on the fly, and defending the run on their way to the quarterback. The 2024 Giants under Bowen will play gap-sound football. His pass rushers will rush in a more controlled fashion to maintain gap integrity and reduce running lanes.
This contrast in pass rushes between Martindale and Bowen mirrors this column’s last subject team, Green Bay. The Packers fired Joe Barry for a conservative, gap-sound approach with too few big defensive plays. Jeff Hafley will be more aggressive.
Martindale’s Giants tied with the Ravens with a league-leading 31 turnovers forced in 2023, but New York allowed a full yard per play more, on average, than Baltimore. Despite frequent blitzing, the Giants finished 28th (tied) with just 34 sacks.
The Packers under Barry and the Titans under Bowen forced 18 and 14 turnovers, respectively. Each of these two teams recorded 45 quarterback sacks in 2023.
The parallels break down when considering tackles for loss. Bowen’s Titans made 90 of them, one more than Mike Macdonald’s Ravens. The Giants and Packers each collected 76 tackles for loss, a total that placed them in the league’s bottom ten teams in the statistic. Cleveland’s aggressive defense led the category with 113.
Giants Edge Defenders
Shane Bowen’s top three edge defenders in Tennessee included a traditional defensive end, Denico Autry, who played over the tackle and on the edge. The Giants have no comparable player since they traded Leonard Williams to Seattle. They will field a base 3-4 defense with two outside linebackers poised for high-volume roles. These edge defenders will play a few snaps per game in coverage as Bowen simulates pressure. The coverage snaps could boost their tackle totals.
The Giants traded with the Panthers for Brian Burns. The two-time Pro Bowler will bookend the defense with New York’s 2022 first-round pick Kayvon Thibodeaux. Both players have taken at least 79 percent of their defenses’ snaps in each of the past two years. Under Shane Bowen, Harold Landry III averaged more than 900 snaps per season. Burns and Thibodeaux are positioned for similar workloads in 2024.
Kayvon Thibodeaux mic'd up at Giants' camp was pure CINEMA??#Giants100 #NYGiants pic.twitter.com/xpON1dgVz8
— Fireside Giants (@FiresideGiants) August 7, 2024
Giants Defensive Tackles
Shane Bowen deployed one of the league’s best defensive tackles in scheme-diverse Jeffery Simmons. In 2024, he will have Dexter Lawrence II, one of the NFL’s best nose tackles.
Simmons is a perennial DT1 for fantasy football, but he may not be a precedent for Lawrence. The Giant was one of the most successful interior pass rushers by win rate in 2023, yet he merely maintained his average of 4.5 quarterback sacks per season. Lawrence has never made more than 7 tackles per loss, which ranked outside the top 25 defensive tackles last year. Bowen’s gap-sound system could help Lawrence increase his tackle total. His powerful bull rush will complement the scheme well.
Under Bowen, the Titans were one of the league’s leading practitioners of penny personnel. Autry’s flexibility to move inside helped activate the five-man front. Bowen must rotate personnel more frequently to maintain penny use in New York and avoid double-teams of Lawrence.
Like Burns and Thibodeaux, Lawrence is poised to play more than 900 snaps in 2024. The trio has little talent behind them both on the depth chart and in the secondary.
Dexter Lawrence II put Quenton Nelson on his back with this bull-rush
— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) January 2, 2023
Lawrence continued to build on an excellent season in yesterday's win over the Colts pic.twitter.com/MHPqga66MD
Building Out Coverages
Independent content creator Cody Alexander covers each NFL defense at an intermediate level in his Substack MatchQuarters. He converted coverage tendencies from Pro Football Focus into a spider graph to contrast Shane Bowen with Wink Martindale (image below).
Bowen not only showed two-high shells at a high rate in 2023, he also remained in MOFO coverages after the snap. Bowen’s use of Cover-2 and Cover-4 (quarters) ranked among the highest in the league. Compared to other zone coverages, Cover-4 operates more similarly to off-man coverage.
Giants Safeties
The Giants return one of two starters from 2023. Third-year safety Jason Pinnock will likely pair with 2024 second-round pick Tyler Nubin.
Pinnock played almost two-thirds of his defensive snaps deep in Martindale’s single-high coverages. Bowen will deploy him more evenly around the field in 2024, but the less aggressive scheme won’t afford Pinnock the pass-rush opportunities that he and Xavier McKinney enjoyed last year.
Giants Cornerbacks
New York’s first-round pick of the 2023 NFL draft, Deonte Banks, enjoyed a successful first season despite frequent isolation in man coverage with just one single-high safety behind him. Banks should take a step forward with more support in the secondary.
No viable second boundary cornerback exists in the Giants’ roster. Cor'Dale Flott, who has been in and out of the lineup at nickel, is the leading candidate. Third-round rookie Dru Phillips will man the slot.
The Giants sucked yesterday but watch Deonte Banks, this kid was a fantastic.
— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) September 11, 2023
Absolutely locked down his assignments and even helped out others before the cramps kicked in.
?@nickfalato
pic.twitter.com/LCydH9Tt73
Giants Linebackers
Bobby Okereke looked like a risky signing at $40 million over four years. Zaire Franklin leapfrogged him on the Colts’ depth chart in his contract year of 2022. Okereke proved doubters wrong with a strong 2023 in the middle of a struggling defense.
Six forced turnovers and 2.5 sacks fueled his fourth overall finish among fantasy linebackers. Bowen’s more conservative approach will cost Okereke opportunities for big plays.
Micah McFadden returns as a proverbial two-down thumper. Isaiah Simmons could cut into the LB2’s reps in passing situations.
Bobby Okereke this season:
— evin (@KayvonOjulari) November 23, 2023
• 5th in tackles
• 2nd in forced fumbles (1st among LBs)
• 5th in tackles for loss
• 5th in run stuffs
• 3rd in pass deflections among LBs
• 1 INT
• 3 passes tipped that got picked off
All-Pro? ?? pic.twitter.com/r6WGm9WICp
2024 Giants Outlook
Fantasy Fades
Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II surprised with 7.5 sacks and a ninth-place finish among fantasy defensive tackles in 2022. He fell back to earth in 2023; however, early drafters expect a big rebound. Average-draft-position data collected by The IDP Show reports Lawrence as the 7th tackle off the board. Lawrence could see more double-teams in 2024 due to less blitzing and has a weak secondary behind him. His playmaking behind the line of scrimmage is unlikely to statistically double and justify fantasy gamers’ investment.
The LB5 price tag for Micah McFadden’s services is not steep, but he has little upside. Linebackers in camp battles for larger roles are more interesting investments.
Isaiah Simmons will, at best, split reps with McFadden. Fantasy gamers drafting Simmons are chasing the mirage of a regular linebacker with DB eligibility.
Tyler Nubin is competing with Dane Belton for the starting safety job. The winner is likely to provide replacement-level production for fantasy gamers. Nubin’s ADP of 29th among safeties is misguided.
Fantasy Holds
Jason Pinnock finished 2023 as a SAF2 despite his deep role. Fantasy gamers are wise to consider him mere depth for 2024.
Edge defenders Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux and linebacker Bobby Okereke are among the first 20 players off the board in most formats. Playing in front of more two-high shells, Okereke will have upside from the 149 combined tackles he collected in 2023. He will need growth in that category to replace fantasy points from turnovers. Another top-five finish is not out of the question.
Burns and Thibodeaux are each low-end DE1s by average draft position. Both need the volume they’re likely to see to meet expectations. Burns has always converted pressures into sacks at a disappointing rate. Thibodeaux accomplished the reverse in 2023, making him the riskier pick of the two. The sack conversion rate of each should regress to the mean.
Summer Plans
With big names expecting high volume entrenched at premium positions, the Giants offer little opportunity for fantasy value. The previous eight editions of this series offer fantasy gamers value plays for their upcoming drafts.
Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.
