Links to all of this year's Reading the New Defense Articles
Atl | Chi | Dal | GB | Jac | LAC | Mia | NYG | Phi | Sea | Ten | Was
Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023 that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.
The Importance of Scheme and Deployment
2024 is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.
Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024
Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%
AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%
Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx
Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.
#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024
BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ???
SLOT: 9.6% ?
-- Average: 9.1% --
DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?
Changing Schemes
In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.
This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach, Mike Macdonald, has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.
Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories, including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald’s success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.
Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.
? Drew Rosenhaus, who represents multiple Miami Dolphins players, on Vic Fangio: “There were quite a few players that didn’t necessarily get along with Fangio. It wasn’t a great relationship with many of the players.” (@TheMozKnowz) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/cFIiVNgX7j
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) January 24, 2024
The innovation Vic Fangio advanced that Mike Macdonald employs is to build out coverages first and allocate remaining resources to run defense. This results in the light box – a total of six players along the defensive line and behind it at linebacker depth. Frequently, then, both safeties align deep, more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.
Dolphins defense baited the QB run from the Eagles on that last 3rd down.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 23, 2023
Eagles motion to Empty, Dolphins show a Quarters shell. But watch the Dolphins Safeties signaling.
Hurts checks into a direct QB run - which makes sense against a light box. Dolphins instead bring Cover 0 pic.twitter.com/GOdb72V1LW
Macdonald diverges from Fangio by deploying more press-man coverage. Like the Super Bowl champion Chiefs, the 2023 Ravens relied on penetrating interior pressure and physical cornerback play at the line of scrimmage to disrupt quick-hitting offenses. The approach compensated for pedestrian edge talent.
Fangio’s Dolphins planned a 2023 defense potent at cornerback and edge defender, but injuries prevented the unit from coming together. Joe Barry coordinated a defense similar to Vic Fangio’s in Green Bay last season. The Dolphins’ and Packers’ defenses each took conservative approaches to middling finishes that let down effective offenses late in the season. Barry, too, was relieved of his duties.
Erecting Defensive Fronts
The Packers hired Jeff Hafley away from Boston College, where he served as head coach for four years. The hire suggests a startling divergence in defensive philosophy for 2024. Hafley’s Eagles led the Atlantic Coast Conference in use of Cover-1, the most common man coverage; Cover-3, another single-high-safety coverage; and heavy boxes, personnel groupings with 8 defenders across from the offensive line.
Hafley’s more aggressive approach will have pass rushers getting upfield with reckless abandon. In contrast, Joe Barry’s more controlled pass rush required defenders to mind running lanes in a more controlled pursuit of the quarterback. While Barry’s defense sought to prevent chunk plays, Hafley’s unit is expected to force the action, pressure offenses into mistakes, and create turnovers.
Barry’s units finished outside the top 20 NFL defenses in tackles for loss in each of his three seasons in Green Bay. Hafley’s arrival should change that, even if his defense trades offensive losses for explosive plays.
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Packers Edge Defenders
Hafley ran a 4-3 defense both at Boston College and in his one year as Ohio State’s defensive coordinator. The change from a 3-4 base defense to a 4-3 should benefit the Packers’ 2023 first-round pick, Lukas Van Ness, in 2024.
Van Ness found his footing with his hand in the dirt in the second half of 2023. In college at Iowa, he played across from offensive tackles as well as wide. He profiles as a better fit as a 4-3 end relative to the more diverse responsibilities of a Joe Barry outside linebacker.
? Lukas Van Ness is right on schedule pic.twitter.com/Zk8bDeVgJJ
— Pack-A-Day (@PackADayPodcast) July 9, 2024
Preston Smith, who performed admirably as an outside linebacker with coverage duties, may find himself the third-best pass rusher by the end of the 2024 season. If Smith does not give way to Van Ness, the franchise might begin to regret using the 13th-overall pick on him.
Rashan Gary has emerged as one of the league’s best pass rushers. His pitch count coming off a 2022 ACL tear combined with low tackle totals may have fantasy gamers unnecessarily hesitant to pursue his services.
Packers Defensive Tackles
The emergence of 2021 5th-round pick T.J. Slaton at nose tackle freed up Kenny Clark for a banner year as a pass rusher last season. Slaton, a traditional two-down, space-eating nose tackle, will find a small role in Jeff Hafley’s one-gapping attack. Clark should move back into the middle but as a one-technique in asymmetrical base fronts.
Clark will man one of two three-technique roles in nickel subpackages, in which he will attack the ‘B’ gap. His interior running mate should be Devonte Wyatt, one of two defenders selected by the Packers in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft. Wyatt is developing as a pass rusher; however, he struggled to control blockers in Joe Barry’s run defense. Wyatt, like Van Ness, will have every opportunity to thrive in the new system.
Karl Brooks surprised as a rookie and 6th-round pick in 2023. He could cut into Wyatt’s projected workload and bears watching in deep fantasy leagues.
A minute of Devonte Wyatt ruining interior offensive linemen: pic.twitter.com/Hfgb3pz0LT
— Ross Uglem (@RossUglem) March 31, 2024
Building Out Coverages
Independent content creator Cody Alexander covers each NFL defense at an intermediate level in his Substack MatchQuarters. He converted coverage tendencies from Pro Football Focus into a spider graph to contrast Joe Barry with Jeff Hafley (image below).
BC’s use of Cover 1, the most common man coverage, exceeded that of any NFL team in 2023. The closest comparable NFL defense in 2023 was Jim Schwartz’s Cleveland unit. Hafley acknowledges, however, that overreliance on a single high safety might not translate to the NFL despite Schwartz’s veritable scoff at the leaguewide trend toward two-high shells. The Browns feature Myles Garrett and one of the league's best cornerback rooms. (This column covered Schwartz’s return to coordinating last summer.)
Packers Safeties
Despite Joe Barry’s regular two-high shells and MOFO coverages, his Packers allowed a frustratingly high number of explosive pass plays. The front office responded by allowing their top three safeties to leave with Barry and invest heavily in upgrades.
Former Giant Xavier McKinney signed a 4-year $67 million contract as an unrestricted free agent. UGA alumnus Javon Bullard arrives in Green Bay as a second-round pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
As training camp begins, sophomore Anthony Johnson is battling Bullard for the starting role alongside McKinney. Fantasy gamers should root for Johnson to hold off the rookie. Johnson’s limitations would likely increase McKinney’s deployment closer to the line of scrimmage, contributing to Hafley’s heavy boxes. Bullard and McKinney could be used more interchangeably in line with leaguewide tendencies.
Allen Lazard, known for his run blocking as a WR, but Xavier McKinney wasn’t having any of it. pic.twitter.com/Fi6g5k0F6e
— Andy Herman (@AndyHermanNFL) June 20, 2024
Packers Cornerbacks
It’s easy to forget that Green Bay has former first-rounders at each corner, including a two-time second-team All-Pro. Jaire Alexander earned a 4-year $84 million deal after a stellar 2022, but he’s missed 24 starts through the past three seasons. Eric Stokes is entering the final year of his rookie contract after missing all but two of a possible 27 starts, including the postseason.
The Packers need Alexander and Stokes to return to form to activate a lockdown defense. Stokes showed promise with 14 pass breakups as a rookie in 2021. Alexander has recorded 63 passes defensed in 71 career games. Jeff Hafley’s desire for aggressive, press-man coverage should help them build on their ball-hawking results.
“Playoff football is when it counts, and that’s when I’m gonna make my money.”
— GBP Daily - Rob Westerman lll (@GBPdaily) August 1, 2024
- Jaire Alexander
pic.twitter.com/fZppAwQmEj
Packers Linebackers
Boston College led not only the ACC but all of FBS college football in heavy box usage in 2023. The base personnel grouping most often includes four linemen, three linebackers, and a safety in the box.
Close observers of the team disagree on how often the Packers will use base defense. One forecasts 30 percent of snaps. In this scenario, Green Bay could resemble recent 49ers defenses under Robert Saleh and Demeco Ryans. Saleh innovated by deploying quarters, a MOFO coverage, behind a front with two wide-9-technique defensive ends and three linebackers. Hafley points to this approach to combat running quarterbacks in high-leverage situations.
No team showed dime personnel less often than the 49ers in 2023. Hafley is expected to follow suit. The personnel deployment will provide two virtually full-time linebackers for fantasy gamers. Quay Walker, the team’s first draft pick in 2022, will lead the position group.
The Packers drafted Edgerrin Cooper in the second round three months ago to play right away. The question is whether he is the second or third linebacker. Former Day-3 pick and Boston College alumnus Isaiah McDuffie has the advantage of knowing Hafley’s defense from their time together in Boston. McDuffie played effectively in relief of injury-plagued De'Vondre Campbell last season.
The rookie played a moneybacker position at Texas A&M like collegiate Fred Warner or Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Developing in a part-time SAM role, in which the reads might be simpler, could benefit Cooper in Year 1.
if the packers are looking at 700+ snaps of Isaiah McDuffie next season, this’ll do pic.twitter.com/RqbkrEREoA
— zach jacobson (@zacobson) March 31, 2024
2024 Packers Outlook
The IDP Show is conducting dozens of IDP-only best-ball leagues that are generating ADP data. Whether by dumb luck or the wisdom of the masses, Packers are being drafted at reasonable values across almost all positions.
The Packers’ top fantasy assets, linebacker Quay Walker and edge defender Rashan Gary, are being drafted as second options at their respective positions. Gary’s track record in the tackles column suppresses his value, and the man-heavy scheme won’t support the high volume of tackles a linebacker needs to achieve an LB1 season.
Surprisingly, rookie fever has not inflated Edgerrin Cooper’s price. He is fitting onto rosters as an LB5, coming off the board a few spots ahead of Isaiah McDuffie. The competition between the two for reps makes each a nice addition behind four linebackers assured of roles playing more than 80 percent of snaps.
Similarly, Lukas Van Ness and Preston Smith rank just four overall spots apart as ED4 and ED5, respectively. Smith’s staying power suppresses the urge to gamble on Van Ness’s upside as a recent high draft pick.
Drafters expect Xavier McKinney to duplicate the SAF1 season of a year ago despite his change of scenery. Hafley’s defense should be as aggressive as Wink Martindale’s New York defense from a year ago and thus supportive of an impact safety for fantasy football. Ample opportunities to man heavy boxes elevate his opportunities to collect tackles as Jon Macri reports in the tweet earlier in this article.
Coming off consecutive DT2 seasons, Kenny Clark is reasonably drafted as such in The IDP Show’s best-ball leagues. Breakout candidate Devonte Wyatt fits rosters well as a DT3, given concerns over his prospective workload.
Jaire Alexander’s talent and situation make him look like a value as the 44th cornerback off of best-ball draft boards. Drafters might recall the friction between him and the club in 2023 resulting in a one-game suspension. Still, Alexander is a value at fantasy football’s least predictable position.
Summer Plans
Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.
