Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
Thanksgiving has come and gone, and Week 13 is kicking into full swing. With just a couple of weeks remaining in the fantasy regular season, quite a few managers are in a position where they absolutely, positively have to find some way to scrape out a victory.
So, let's help them get one.
Panic Meter, C.J. Stroud Edition
This isn't a good time for fantasy managers to be worrying about starters, but the production from C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans of late has been—concerning. Been a while since a Panic Meter (1 to 5), and name a lesser name you think sails past Stroud this week.
Harris: The Panic Meter is at 1 for me. Panic has turned to resignation. Stroud is what he is right now. In Week 12, he threw multiple touchdown passes for the first time since Oct. 13, but he also threw multiple interceptions for the second time in three weeks and was sacked four times. Houston's line has allowed 17 sacks in its past four games. That seems like his season in a microcosm. So, he's fallen outside my circle of trust.
That said, he plays the Jaguars this week, and Jacksonville has allowed a league-high 23.1 points per game to the position this year. Eight opposing quarterbacks have scored at least 18 points against the Jags; seven have scored more than 20 points; two scored more than 30 points. By the way, one of those 20-point scorers was Stroud in Week 4 (23.5). So, I won't be surprised if Stroud comes through again this week.
That means finding a lesser light ready to soar past Stroud will be a challenge. The way to suss it out is to find the best matchup. That being the case, the team giving up the second-most points to opposing signal callers would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who give up 22.3 points per game to the position. This week, the Bucs will go up against a suddenly competent Bryce Young, who completed 21 of 35 passes for 263 yards and a TD while taking two sacks against a good Chiefs defense last week. He handled the blitz, in particular, like a seasoned pro. He was blitzed on 38 percent of dropbacks. He was 11 of 13 for a season-high 135 yards with a touchdown against five or more defenders.
Like the Jaguars, Tampa Bay has given up 18 or more fantasy points to eight enemy field generals. Six have scored over 20 points. Two have topped 30. I will acknowledge that, given similar matchups, expecting Young to outperform Stroud is a reach. But that's the whole idea here, and I'm embracing it.
Davenport: Harris hit the nail on the head (as usual) where Stroud is concerned. You can say that the Panic Meter is 5, but you're just howling at the moon—things aren't suddenly going to change where he's concerned. Even when Stefon Diggs was healthy, it's not like Stroud was posting big numbers—he has just four multi-touchdown games this season and hasn't thrown for 300 yards since the first week of October.
Stroud's not a QB1—although he should be a decent fantasy starter this week against the Jaguars' non-existent defense. If he can't get it done against Jacksonville, he should be glued to benches for the rest of the season.
Like Stroud, Kyler Murray of the Cardinals hasn't exactly been lighting up the stat sheet of late—just one touchdown pass over the last three games combined. If the Redbirds have any hope of beating the Vikings in Minnesota this week, it will have to be with the passing game—the Vikes are 28th in the league in pass defense this season. Murray has a good shot at a solid stat line in Week 13.
Rebound Running Back
It was a rough Week 12 for many running backs—injury and insult in equal measure. But that was then, and this is now—name a running back who goes from the outhouse to the penthouse in Week 13.
It can't be Saquon Barkley. He did OK.
Harris: Do I get to define the outhouse? If so, an RB1 (in this case, RB8 on the season) finishing outside the top 12 qualifies. And that means Kyren Williams, who's been struggling with ball security. He's fumbled four times in the last four games, with two coming during Sunday night's loss to the Eagles. The issues were enough for head coach Sean McVay to be asked on Wednesday whether Williams is still the starter. The good news? He is. The better news? This week, he gets a rebound opportunity against a Saints defense that's given up multiple rushing touchdowns to opposing backs in four of their past six games.
This is where I remind you that Williams ranks second in both red-zone and goal-line rushes this season.
But wait! There's more . . . New Orleans also allows the second-most yards per carry this season (5.1 yards), and they've given up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. They've yielded at least 16 points to eight different backs, giving up 20 points five times and more than 30 twice.
Welcome back to RB1 territory, Kyren Williams!
Davenport: Like Williams, Joe Mixon of the Houston Texans has been a fantasy RB1 this season—he's ninth in PPR points at his position. Like Williams, Mixon had a letdown last week against the Tennessee Titans, posting his second-fewest PPR points of the season in Week 12.
Like Williams, Mixon should be well-positioned to rebound this week. The Texans have to be seething after last week's defeat, and the Jaguars aren't much better against the run than they are against the pass. Jacksonville has given up more than 135 yards on the ground per game this year, and the Jags have surrendered the second-most PPR points per game to running backs this season.
Wide Receiver Bargains
We'll keep this a simple two-parter—which wide receiver currently outside the top-20 in fantasy points lights up December like a Christmas tree? How about one who will be a Secret (Top 40-plus) Santa this week?
It has begun.
Harris: Titans wideout Calvin Ridley currently sits at WR24 on the Footballguys consensus rankings. Ridley has averaged 16.9 points per game without DeAndre Hopkins this year (with Hopkins, Ridley was at 7.5 points per week). As a result, Ridley is WR7 from Weeks 8 through 12. He's averaging 90.2 yards per game over that span. On Sunday, he'll go up against a Commanders defense that's run cold, then hot, and now cold again when it comes to slowing opposing receivers. Over the last two games, Washington is tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed on deep passes.
Looking outside the top 40, there is only one answer, and I'll brook no argument: The new, improved Marques Valdes-Scantling is the only acceptable answer. While the Saints' offensive resurgence began with the return of Derek Carr three weeks ago, the new, improved Valdes-Scantling, who joined the team only a month ago, has proved he can be an explosive element with Rashid Shaheed (knee) out for the season. The new, improved MVS has now scored three touchdowns in two games, tying the team lead in receiving touchdowns. He had a 71-yard touchdown in the first against the Browns before last week's bye.
Of course, I say all this knowing the old Valdes-Scantling, who drops almost as many passes as he catches, is out there somewhere. I'm hoping we don't see him against the Rams this week.
Davenport: Brook no argument? What year is this?
I've already talked up Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray as a good fantasy play this week, and if Murray goes off it stands to reason that Marvin Harrison Jr.. will be a beneficiary. I cautioned fantasy managers that Harrison was overvalued in drafts over the summer, but even I didn't expect numbers this pedestrian from the former Ohio State star. Still, I remain a believer in Harrison's talent, and the Vikings have surrendered the most PPR points per game in the NFC to wideouts this season.
I am officially on board the Devaughn Vele bandwagon—Vele has posted three straight games with double-digit PPR points and ranks among the top 25 fantasy receivers over that span. The Browns have given up the 10th-most PPR points per game to wide receivers this year—Vele is going to crash the fantasy WR2 ranks this week.
Tight End Talk
Given the waking nightmare that the tight end position has been in fantasy in 2024, trying to be clever here just seems—mean. Name one tight end outside the top 12 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings who will make fantasy managers thankful in Week 13. And one inside the top 10 who will not.
What? Said it was mean. Not that it wouldn't happen.
Harris: Pat Freiermuth has yet to make anybody anything but frustrated this season. As USA Today suggested this week, Freiermuth's lack of involvement in the offense is as much the fault of Russell Wilson and the coaches as it is him, but we still need to see someone besides George Pickens making some playing in the passing game. If not this week, going up against a Bengals defense that's given up the third-most receiving yards and fourth-most catches to opposing tight ends, when? Six tight ends have scored at least 15 points against Cincinnati's defense this year. The Chargers' Will Dissly and Baltimore's Mark Andrews hit 18 points in the last two weeks.
This week's disappointment will be Cleveland's David Njoku, who will take on the Broncos in Denver on Monday Night Football. While Njoku can deliver any given week, he'll face a Broncos defense that limited Brock Bowers to 7.8 points a week ago. It's not that they're especially great against tight ends. The bigger issue is Denver's defense has owned opposing quarterbacks. Only three have scored 14 or more fantasy points against them this season, and only Lamar Jackson put up 18-plus on them. No opposing quarterback has scored more than 13.7 points in a game against them at Mile High this season. Only once this season have the Broncos allowed multiple touchdown passes at home. The last quarterback to play in Denver, Kirk Cousins, in Week 11, was held to 4.9 fantasy points. Shut down the quarterback, and you will also put the kibosh on his weapons. I don't see Njoku making good on his TE9 ranking this week.
Davenport: I can't believe I'm doing this, and as I write it, I already regret doing so. There's no real reason to expect Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons (TE15) to have a big Week 12—the Chargers rank outside the top-20 in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends this year. But things like reason and logic long ago flew out the window with Pitts. Coming out of the bye in need of a win, the Falcons will get Pitts involved in the gameplan early, and the former fourth overall pick will respond with his first big outing in weeks.
Unless he doesn't. I don't know. Tight ends this year are chaos. Complete chaos.
Evan Engram of the Jacksonville Jaguars (TE7) has had his moments this season—he's 10th in PPR points per game among tight ends since returning to the lineup in Week 6, and it appears that Trevor Lawrence will be back under center for the Jags Sunday against the Texans. But Houston has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends this year, and outside wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.. I have a hard time trusting any Jacksonville players in a must-win week.
Plant the Flag
We're going to close every edition of this column this season with a little exercise called "Plant the Flag."
Make a player a polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top 25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for week-winning numbers.
Harris: As NFL Network's Marcas Grant noted this week, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has multiple outings with more than 19 fantasy points, but it's hard to say it's been a good season. He hasn't had 90 scrimmage yards in a game since Week 5. Last week, he produced a season-low 13 total yards and failed to catch either of his targets en route to a 1.3-point fantasy outing. All that helps explain why he's ranked as RB26 in one of the week's most favorable running back matchups. The Colts are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including some monster games with five opposing rushers going over 20 points. Over the last four weeks, the Colts have given up six total touchdowns to the position. It's enough for me to bank on an RB2 finish for Stevenson.
Davenport: The Los Angeles Rams roll into Week 12 needing a win in the worst way to avoid falling too far off the pace in a tightly-packed NFC West. At 256.6 passing yards allowed per game, the New Orleans Saints rank 30th in the league in pass defense. Harris already talked up Rams running back Kyren Williams in Week 13, but quarterback Matthew Stafford could also be in for good numbers with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp at his disposal against a Saints secondary that has struggled this season. Rams win, and Stafford throws for 300-plus yards in the victory.
Pass the gravy.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.
Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.
