Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
We have just about reached the halfway point of the 2024 fantasy regular season. And while some players kindly followed the script, many have not. There’s a quarterback in the top-five who wasn’t drafted in many leagues. Young running backs are emerging around the NFL, muddying the waters in several backfields.
Harris and Davenport will get to that soon enough. But there’s only one place to start this week’s Polarizing Players—and that’s with the blockbuster wide receiver trades that rocked the NFL this week.
Davante Adams Joins His Bae in the Big Apple
So much for starting things off with a quarterback like usual because Week 7 got unusual from the jump. Davante Adams got his bae back (again), and there’s been plenty written and said about it since. No pressure or anything, but the biggest fantasy winner and loser of his move to the Jets with the wisdom of Confucius—go.
Harris: It remains to be seen who the biggest winner is, but Jets on-field GM (and quarterback) Aaron Rodgers gets a win here. Adams, 31, spent eight seasons with the Packers playing alongside Rodgers. He led the league with 18 touchdowns in 2020, as Green Bay went 13-3 and Rodgers won MVP. In fact, Rodgers won three of his four MVP awards during Adams' run in Green Bay. Adams was a rookie who was a non-factor in Rodgers' 2014 MVP. But in addition to contributions in 2020, the wideout caught 123 passes with 11 touchdowns during Rodgers' most recent MVP campaign in 2021.
So yeah, adding that component to a receiving corps already boasting Garrett Wilson and a surprisingly productive Allen Lazard has to work in Rodgers' favor on the field almost as much as it boosts his Machiavellian, behind-the-scenes puppet-master reputation off it.
Wilson investors are the losers here. They spent first-round draft capital on a player with the dominant role we've seen the last two weeks when he turned a combined 33 targets into 21 catches for 208 yards and two touchdowns. He'll still have productive -- and maybe even high-end -- games. But as The Athletic said in reporting this trade news: "Wilson will not be the Jets' No. 1 receiver as long as Adams is around, and Rodgers is the quarterback."
In Vegas, Brock Bowers can continue to dominate targets and receiving production without the specter of Adams' return.
Davenport: I won’t argue that Rodgers is a “winner” here, but I don’t know that he’ll suddenly morph into a viable weekly starter in fantasy. The fact is that Rodgers’ didn’t post big numbers in his last full healthy season in Green Bay, finishing as QB13 in fantasy points. If the Jets are smart, they won’t go pass-wacky with the addition of Adams—that offense is more efficient when Breece Hall gets his.
This isn’t necessarily good news for Adams’ fantasy value. Either. Last year, no wideout in the AFC saw more targets than Adams. The veteran will get his, but ignoring Garrett Wilson at Adams’ expense would be an exceptionally Jets thing to do. When the dust settles, both will probably land in WR2 territory, which fantasy managers don’t want for either. Allen Lazard gets relegated to the fringes of the fringe, and Mike Williams was dead the moment he fell down on that deep route against the Bills.
I wouldn’t completely count out Jakobi Meyers in Vegas. Bowers is going to be the top target in the passing game, but opponents know that as well as we do. Meyers showed some ability to be a quasi-No. 1 receiver with a shaky quarterback in New England—he should be a third-fantasy starter or “flex” option once healthy.
Oh, and “Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.”
Amari Cooper Heads to Buffalo
The Cleveland Browns are a vortex of despair from which very little escapes, but Amari Cooper rode an escape pod to Buffalo to become Josh Allen’s new No. 1 receiver. What does the move mean in Buffalo, and is there any fantasy value in Cleveland at all?
Harris: Cooper will become the alpha Buffalo lacked in the post-Stefon Diggs era. While his numbers this year have been nothing to write home about, Cooper finished the 2023 season with 72 receptions for 1,250 yards with five touchdowns. With Joe Flacco at quarterback in the team's Week 16 matchup against the Texans, Cooper caught 11 passes for a single-game franchise record 265 yards. With Cooper in the mix, it's fair to believe Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and the other receiving assets in Buffalo will take hits. But with the Bills averaging just 26 passes a game so far this season (31st in the league). I'd love to believe adding Cooper leads to 10 more pass attempts per game. That's probably not realistic.
As for the Browns, I commend your understated "vortex of despair" description. That's like Noah saying, "It looks a little like rain."
Cleveland just became the first team in 10 years to score fewer than 20 points in each of its first six games of a season. They've scored once in their last 29 drives. So even if fantasy managers with Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku can expect slight bumps due to Cooper's vacated targets (he led the team with a 26 percent target share), any hope for a significant offensive turnaround here seems minimal as long as Deshaun Watson is starting.
Davenport: That the Browns won’t sit Watson and start Jameis Winston is the most Cleveland thing in years. Apparently, Kevin Stefanski, Andrew Berry, and Jimmy Haslam (who is probably the person making this idiotic decision) have never heard of sunk cost fallacy. In any event, Harris is spot-on here—any boost in value guys like Jeudy and Njoku might see will be muted by the avalanche of suck that is Cleveland’s offense.
The addition of Cooper is great for the Bills—and maybe it will spark a shift in offensive philosophy. After all, Joe Brady wasn’t this deliberate and conservative last year with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the team. If that happens, Cooper’s ceiling could be the top 15, and Allen’s fantasy value would get a bump as well.
But “ifs” and “maybes” are how fantasy managers get their hearts broken. Frankly, if another manager enamored with Cooper in his new home came to me with a reasonable offer, I’d likely sell. That slow play rate. Cooper’s propensity for drops. Learning a new offense on the fly. There are legitimate concerns with Cooper, and if folks think he’s going to become Diggs 2.0, they are setting themselves up for disappointment.
Zero RB Heaven
The past couple of weeks have been replete with big performances from the sort of Zero-RB backs that make fans of that strategy swoon. You can have one of those running backs for the rest of the year. Who is it, and why?
Harris: I'm torn. If the Panthers hadn't opened Jonathon Brooks' practice window this week, the easy answer would be Chuba Hubbard. I talked to Mike Kaye, who covers the Panthers for the Charlotte Observer, last week. Kaye is adamant that Hubbard will remain a factor because coaches appreciate his "violent" style of play. But a timeshare is coming at some point.
I don't think that will be the case with J.K. Dobbins in Los Angeles. I am aware of the former Ravens' injury history, but I tend to be injury-agnostic. The bigger concern is Dobbins' efficiency has diminished since his hot start. As NBC Sports' Kyle Dvorchak notes, Dobbins has 1.9 yards after contact per attempt over his past three games. Over the first two weeks, Dobbins posted 4.8 yards after contact per carry.
Dobbins' numbers could even out, however. I'm also more confident in Dobbins retaining his feature-back level workload in the Chargers run-heavy offense than I am in Hubbard.
I'd normally be all about Nick Chubb in his return to the active roster, but I'm reliably told Cleveland's offense is a "vortex of despair," so I'm going with Dobbins and the anticipated volume.
Davenport: Well, since Hubbard and Dobbins are off the board (Doubling up is lazy for me and no help to you, oh Cherished Reader), I’ll go a little deeper and single out rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. of the New York Giants.
I actually believed that Devin Singletary was a great “Zero RB” target. And until he got hurt, I had a puncher’s chance at being right. But Singletary hurt his groin. Tracy stepped into a lead role. And the youngster shined.
Over the last two weeks, Tracy has averaged over five yards a carry and topped 100 total yards in both outings as New York’s lead back. He’s run hard and shown promise as a receiver. Were it not for Singletary’s prowess as a pass-protector, I’d say there was a real chance he’d get the full Wally Pipp from Tracy. But the Giants have to give the rookie more work—he has just been the better running back.
Baker Mayfield…Superstar?
This is the second time we have discussed Baker Mayfield this season because, apparently, nothing matters anymore. It doesn’t appear to be a matter of Mayfield cracking the top 10 anymore. It’s a matter of how high he finishes. Does he stay in the top five? And (SLEEPER ALERT!) what under-the-radar quarterback will out-score him this week?
Yes, you have to pick one.
Harris: As much as I'd like to believe some of the running quarterbacks I've invested in will rise -- I'm looking at you, Anthony Richardson, and Kyler Murray; Mayfield has matured into a solid passer with great weapons. A top-10 season is almost inevitable. A top-five finish seems optimistic but not unrealistic. Final call: Mayfield won't make that top-five cut.
As for who outscores him this week? Let me check the schedule to see if the Giants play in prime time . . . Nope, it's a daytime kickoff against a generous Eagles secondary with Malik Nabers on track to play. I'll go with Daniel Jones.
Davenport: I’m inclined to agree with Harris that Mayfield won’t be able to stay inside the top five quarterbacks—too many guys with rushing upside behind him. Unless Mayfield leads the NFL in passing scores, he’s going to slide into the back half of QB1 territory. That doesn’t take away from what he’s accomplished this season—Mayfield’s resurgence in Tampa Bay has been remarkable.
Just one more knife in the heart of Browns fans—although I don’t think Mayfield is the quarterback he is had he not gone through the adversity of the Cleveland divorce and a year wandering the quarterback desert.
I’m gonna go way down the quarterback ranks for my surprise star—and across the Atlantic Ocean. Drake Maye’s first NFL start looked a lot like a first NFL start. But the third pick in April’s draft threw three touchdown passes and provided New England’s languishing offense with a desperately needed spark. Now Maye faces a Jaguars defense that ranks dead last against the pass and has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. 300-plus passing yards and multiple touchdown throws are coming. You just gotta get up early to see it.
Plant the Flag
We’re going to close every edition of this column this season with a little exercise called “Plant the Flag.”
Make a player a polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top 25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for week-winning numbers.
Harris: As our colleague Sigmund Bloom noted in his Week 7 Offensive Sleepers article this week, Demario Douglas looked like the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Drake Maye's first start. Bloom added that Douglas led the team in targets (he has a 28 percent target share in each of the last two games), and Jerod Mayo said they would look at putting him in two-receiver sets in the future, which could lead to more opportunities. And the only thing better than opportunities are opportunities in great matchups. Eight different wide receivers have scored 15-plus fantasy points against Jacksonville in six games. It'll be at least nine after Sunday with Douglas, who was WR8 in Week 6, easily outperforming his WR33 ranking.
Davenport: Harris making my Drake Maye call look good—nice.
I’ll go with a quarterback here. Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions has essentially been what we expected this year from a fantasy perspective—a low-end QB1. From an NFL perspective, he has played as well as any signal-caller in the league, and this week against the undefeated Vikings, I expect the Lions to open up the passing attack more than in recent weeks. Minnesota leads the NFC in run defense—but ranks last in the conference against the pass. Goff is going to smash his QB17 ranking this week. In fact, he’s a solid bet to finish inside the top five.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.
Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.