Two-Game Slate
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 46
- Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 48.5
Injury Roundup
- Tee Higgins IN
- Evan Engram OUT - Upgrade Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, and Brenton Strange
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow is healthy and gets Tee Higgins back in the lineup in this one. This is the perfect spot for him to dominate through the air. He's at home and has a dream matchup against an awful Commanders defense that ranked dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last season. Through two weeks this year the Commanders defense has allowed 289 passing yards and 4 pass touchdowns to Baker Mayfield and also managed to make Daniel Jones look competent.
The Jaguars have a solid defense but we all know Josh Allen is matchup proof. He's the best quarterback in fantasy football and gets to play this one at home. Allen ranked third at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (25.8) in 2022 and first (25) in 2023.
Jayden Daniels ranks seventh at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (20.8) through two weeks and has run the ball 16 and 10 times, respectively. Joe Burrow projects to find plenty of success against the Commanders defense so Daniels will be needed in a big way to keep up. He has a great matchup in his own right. The Bengals defense is banged up and only ranked 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed in 2023.
Running Backs
James Cook is such a talented player. His 17.1 opportunities per game ranked 20th last season but he produced the ninth most total yards per game (94.7). The dual-threat just scored three touchdowns last week and the Bills are 5.5-point home favorites.
Brian Robinson Jr is averaging a strong 18 opportunities per game to begin the season and the Bengals defense is vulnerable right now. They're banged up and only ranked 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed last season.
Travis Etienne Jr. is averaging 16 chances through two weeks and there is room for improvement. He ranked sixth in the NFL in opportunities per game (19.9) last season and the Jaguars are 0-2. They can't afford to consistently spell Etienne in this competitive and important contest. And the matchup is decent with the Bills linebacker corps banged up.
Joe Burrow projects to find plenty of success against the Commanders defense, which is a large reason why the Bengals are eight-point home favorites. That makes Austin Ekeler an intriguing tournament play. The Commanders should be in a passing game script and Kliff Kingsbury's offense emphasizes the intermediate passing game. Ekeler has caught all seven of his targets for 99 yards so far.
Zack Moss is the Bengals' number one running back. He has played 84 snaps compared to Chase Brown's 30 snaps. The Bengals are eight-point home favorites and Moss has a great matchup against a Commanders defense that ranked dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Rush EPA Allowed last season. Moss has touchdown upside here.
Wide Receivers
Even without Joe Burrow for much of last season, Ja'Marr Chase still finished with 100 receptions for 1,216 yards and 7 touchdowns in just 16 games. Chase ranked 12th in targets per game (9.3), eighth in receptions per game (6.4), 12th in receptions (100), 12th in receiving yards per game (79.8), and 12th in receiving yards (1,216). He has Burrow back and is at home in a dream matchup here. Chase is a must-play.
Tee Higgins makes his 2024 debut on Monday night. Many will be afraid to play him coming off of a hamstring injury, especially since his utilization during games where he was less than 100% last season was tricky to say the least. But the upside in this awesome spot is worth the risk in tournaments, especially when factoring in Higgins operated as Burrow's number-one receiver all offseason while Ja'Marr Chase held out for a new contract. Don't expect that offseason chemistry developed to disappear just because of two missed games by Higgins to begin the season.
Terry McLaurin inexplicably only has eight receptions for 39 yards through two games. But let's zoom out a bit. There will be long completions between Jayden Daniels and McLaurin this season. Daniels throws a beautiful deep ball and McLaurin is one of the best deep receivers in the league. And regardless of how much Kliff Kingsbury wants to keep running his "horizontal raid" offense, he projects to have to be more aggressive in this one as the Commanders are eight-point road underdogs.
Christian Kirk's beginning to the 2024 season is wild. He only caught one pass for 30 yards in Week 1 and one pass for -1 yards in Week 2. That's not great! But it allows us to smartly roster Kirk in tournaments thanks to his underlying usage. Kirk has run a route on 53 of Trevor Lawrence's 61 dropbacks. That's an 87% route rate. And Kirk's usage should theoretically increase with Evan Engram out due to injury.
Brian Thomas Jr. is a highlight machine. His calling card entering the league was his big play upside and he just caught an impressive 66-yarder last week. Long touchdown catches are in play for Thomas every week an he'll be needed in this one as the Jaguars are 5.5-point road underdogs.
The Bills receiving pecking order is tough to predict after just two weeks, especially since Buffalo dominated the Dolphins in Week 2 and Josh Allen only had to throw the ball 19 times. Routes run on Allen's 50 dropbacks so far this season: Keon Coleman 45 and Khalil Shakir 38. Both are in play in tournaments as this game projects to be closer than last weeks was.
Tight Ends
It's only been two weeks of poor production for Dalton Kincaid so let's zoom out a bit: Kincaid amassed tons of experience and production lined up in the slot in college as Utah essentially utilized him as a receiver. He didn't disappoint, producing a 70-890-8 line last year and catching 16 total touchdowns over his final two collegiate seasons. He produced a solid season as a rookie in 2023 as well. Kincaid has run 40 routes on Josh Allen's 50 dropbacks, good for an 80% route rate. He's still a massive favorite to lead this team in receiving.
Zach Ertz won't put any electrifying plays on tape anymore but he's run 60 routes on 72 Jayden Daniels dropbacks, good for an 83% route rate. Ertz caught all four of his targets for 62 yards last week and Washington projects to operate in a passing game script for most of this one as they're eight-point road underdogs.
Evan Engram projects to miss another game here. In his absence last week, Brenton Strange had a 72% route rate and caught three of is six targets for 65 yards.
Tee Higgins' return should diminish Mike Gesicki's receiving role. The tight end to have moving forward is rookie Erick All Jr., who the Bengals have been raving about. All ran 15 routes last week, just six fewer than Gesicki. He's a sneaky tournament play in large field tournaments.
Team Defenses
Bills D/ST
Trevor Lawrence is struggling to hit the easy button to begin the season. He's missing intermediate throws and has only completed 26 of 51 attempts. The Bills are 5.5-point home favorites.
Jaguars D/ST
Jaguars at Bills is the preferred game to roster a D/ST in. The Jaguars have a solid defensive unit and for as elite as Josh Allen is, he tends to make silly mistakes from time to time.
Bengals D/ST
The Bengals defense has been struggling but they're eight-point home favorites in this spot. They still have defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and Jayden Daniels is starting just his third NFL game.
