Whether you’re a homeowner or renter, chances are you have lived in a place that wasn’t exactly your favorite. Sometimes, we think the grass will be greener on the other side, but only to learn that it is green where you water it. Even if you want to water that grass in some places, things can happen that simply stop the momentum, leaving you in that same old dingy place you stay. So, what happens when you’re finally free of those four walls? A new and fresh outlook on the same life you had the previous week that felt deflated by your circumstances. We saw a change when edge rusher Matthew Judon left the Baltimore Ravens for the pastures of New England. I believe this new, fresh mindset will be front of mind for freshly traded Judon on the Atlanta Falcons. Last season was disappointing, but the sky is the limit for a player with talent like Judon. He will flourish in his new Atlanta home, and here is why!
Who is Matthew Judon?
Judon is one of the rare players who got better the older he got. He has been breaking the fantasy football mindset since he double-digit sacks for the first time in his career in 2021 at age 29. For most of his career, he was a sack-dependent player who didn’t have enough sack production to be relied upon other than in spot starts due to bye weeks or injury. This may be a harsh reality, but he was also coded as a linebacker, a death sentence for a player like Judon. When ranked among the top linebackers in the NFL, his point production is significantly underwhelming, but when the position designation changed to a more traditional position designation as defensive end. Since this change was made in most IDP formats around the 2021-22 season, we have seen Judon’s value (and point production) skyrocket! In 2022, we saw the best version of Judon when he achieved a career-high in sacks with 15 and a stable tackle floor for a defensive end with 60 total. This was his second straight season where he achieved a career-high in sacks and 60 tackles, giving us a consistent measurement of what to expect with Judon within this defense. Tragedy struck in 2023 when Judon tore his biceps, effectively ending his season just four games in (he had already achieved four sacks at that point).
New Team, Same Judon
In all forms of fantasy football, we look at players who change teams and immediately reevaluate whether we like them or not, for good reason. We have all been burned by hype trains that never leave the station for certain guys on teams two, three, four… We should think more often about how this player and their skill set fits into their new team. In some cases, it is okay not to be in on a player in a new scheme or system. But when it comes to Judon being traded to the Atlanta Falcons this preseason, this is a big win for both IDP fantasy managers and the Falcons themselves. The Atlanta Falcons are amid one of the more interesting rebuilds in the NFL this season. We all know the Kirk Cousins/Michale Penix Jr. situation caused a massive stir on draft night, but what may be lost in the analysis of this pick was that originally, it was projected that the Falcons would be the first to take a defensive player and likely would have taken a pass rusher. This defense is dying for a star player to help assist Jessie Bates III on this defense, and I believe the best position to achieve this was with an edge rusher. Now, the Falcons have acquired a known commodity in Judon, likely at a discounted rate due to his age and injury. They also play in a division that isn’t exactly ripe with quarterback or offensive line talent, giving Judon some tasty matchups minimally six times this upcoming season, playing two games each against Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, and Derek Carr, who all fell in the bottom 16 of sacks taken.
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Should You Acquire Him?
I am aggressive about buying older players when you're in a win-now mindset. Judon absolutely could be a big, game-changing player for a team contending for their league’s title. One of the reasons this can be an effective strategy is getting good short-term value, which we don’t talk about much specifically in dynasty formats. Yes, it is sexy when you get that stud rookie pass rusher and get to watch his career development on your team, but you know what else is sexy? WINNING YOUR LEAGUE. Players like Judon, who have value dips due to circumstance changes and coming off injuries, get lost in the free-agent/waiver-wire scuffle in down seasons, but they have resumes that need to be reevaluated. We saw Judon at the peak of his powers three of the last four seasons, and now he has even greater an opportunity to shine as arguably the best pass rusher on his team. He is the player who can bolster a position on your team with big boom week potential, which wins your leagues more than one would think. As mentioned, if you look at the production over his last three healthy seasons, you will see he has a dependable and stable tackle floor that won’t lose you weeks, even if he doesn’t get to the quarterback. We have also seen him explode for multiple sacks in multiple games, which has week-winning potential on your contending team. He is a big buy for me in nearly all formats, specifically in leagues that reward big plays.
Conclusion
Sometimes, a change of scenery is all you need, and we saw a great example from Judon’s first to second stop. I believe we will see a similarly motivated Judon on the Falcons this season, and his fantasy stock will elevate early and often. I do not believe it is out of pocket to say he can be a top 8 pass rusher this season due to the divisional quarterback play, the Falcons ascending offensive weapons and ability, and essentially getting a rest year while recovering from a biceps injury. He’s 32 years old, which will scare away some fans of IDP, and I understand why. But remember, when you get that new house or apartment, all the hope and opportunity you see with those walls, especially if you didn’t like the old ones, can make for a whole different mindset when living your life. Take it from a guy who moved a time or two: once you find a true home, you realize just how much you missed while not watering your grass!