Kyler Murray: Is This His Comeback Story?

Don't Call It A Comeback; He's Been Here For Years

Kyler Murray has an average draft position of 76th overall as the 10th quarterback off the board. While it's great to see the young franchise signal caller back in fantasy managers' good graces, it's still a few spots later than he should be drafted. The fascinating part of Murray's narrative is that he's finally ready to break out, or more accurately, to make his comeback. Yet, the data tells a different story. 

RELATED: See Spotlight on Dak Prescott here >>>
RELATED: See Spotlight on Anthony Richardson here >>>

Kyler Murray's Fantasy Ranking, Per Game 

• 2019 -- QB15 (17.7 fantasy points)
• 2020 -- QB5 (24.2)
• 2021 -- QB5 (21.5)
• 2022 -- QB12 (17.9)
• 2023 -- QB11 (18.0)

After a Heisman-winning season at the University of Oklahoma, Murray was the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft. The Arizona Cardinals paired him with wunderkind coach Kliff Kingsbury, who was supposed to bring the aggressive spread attack dominating the college landscape with him to the NFL, a system quite similar to the one Murray ran under Lincoln Riley at OU. Although he didn't quite hit fantasy QB1 value as a rookie, he was named the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year and cemented himself as a high-upside starting quarterback. 

The 2020 season vaulted Murray into fantasy stardom, and he delivered back-to-back top-5 seasons (on a per-game basis) as a dual-threat option. The team rewarded him with a 5-year, $230 million extension before the 2022 season. Things were going reasonably well in 2022 before Murray tore his ACL, ending his season and putting the nail in GM Steve Kein's and Coach Kingsbury's coffins. 

Enter new GM Monti Ossenfort, head coach Jonathan Gannon, and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. The new regime understood they would play at least a portion of the 2023 season without Murray as he rehabbed his knee. Beyond the knee rehab, there was speculation about Murray's interest in remaining with the Cardinals and uncertainty about whether the new power structure wanted to make a clean break.

The Cardinals started the season 1-9 without Murray, removing any question about whether the team could or should move on from him. But would Murray want to return and play for a team with no postseason hopes? We now know that, in fact, he did return and played well enough to erase any doubts about who would be under center in 2024. 

The key takeaways:

1. Murray was a top-5 fantasy quarterback before tearing his ACL.
2. Upon his return last year, he delivered top-12 (QB11) value despite learning a new system without a preseason and dealing with one of the worst receiving corps in the NFC.

Welcome to the Marvin Harrison Jr. Era

Murray's ability to deliver QB1 value last year in the final eight games is made all the more impressive when you consider the receivers he had at his disposal. 

Arizona Cardinals Pass Catchers (2023, Weeks 10 through 18)

While tight end Trey McBride is a bonafide young start in the making, Murray's leading receiver was Greg Dortch. No disrespect to Dortch, but he doesn't put fear in the hearts of opposing defensive backs. Marquise Brown was supposed to be the alpha, but he played just 60 snaps over the final six weeks. Rookie Michael Wilson also missed four of Murray's eight games. It was a barren wasteland.

But 2024 should be much different, thanks to rookie Harrison Jr. The son of Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison Sr. was marked for greatness long before he set foot on Ohio State's campus. He dominated Big Ten competition, catching 150 passes for 2,495 yards and 31 touchdowns in 25 starts. He won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's best receiver and graded out as a generation talent in arguably the best receiver class in a decade. The Cardinals drafted him 4th overall, and he'll step into the No. 1 role immediately. 

While veteran Zay Jones isn't nearly the difference-maker Harrison will be, he also joins the receiving corps this year and should be an upgrade at the No. 3 spot.

Three Potential Flies in the Ointment

We can't confidently recommend drafting Murray as your starting quarterback without addressing the potential ways things can go wrong. As I see it, there are three:

1. Concerns about his work ethic
2. The offensive line
3. OC Drew Petzing as a play-caller

The Work Ethic Narrative = Nonsense

Let's put the work ethic narrative to bed quickly. Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury—who were supposed to be a match made in heaven—did not gel. There were uncredited reports that Murray was immature and more interested in playing video games than studying film. Those rumors peaked after it was disclosed that Murray's new contract extension contained a clause requiring Murray to devote at least four hours to studying opponent film each week. While the clause was ultimately removed, the reputational damage didn't go away as easily.

But let's give it no more oxygen for the following reasons:

• People mature; are you the same person at 27 years old that you were at 23? I certainly wasn't.
• The new front office had their chance to move on but didn't.
• Murray's willingness to rehab and return mid-year, when there was nothing to play for, speaks to his commitment and confidence that he would show the new coaches what they could look forward to with a healthy 2024 preseason.

Drew Petzing's Play Calling

This risk factor is harder to dismiss because we have little data to assuage our concerns. Before becoming the Cardinals OC, Petzing had never been a coordinator or play-caller. Coach Gannon hired him away from the Browns, where he was the quarterback coach for Jacoby Brissett and Deshaun Watson, which isn't a resounding endorsement. His first season in Arizona yielded mixed results:

• 24th in points scored
• 19th in yards
• 26th in passing yards
• 24th in passing touchdowns
• 28th in net yards per attempt
• 4th in rushing yards
• 9th in rushing touchdowns
• 2nd in yards per rush

But if we zero in on the Cardinals' pro-rated output once Murray returned, things look more encouraging:

• 13th in points scored
• 7th in yards
• 17th in passing yards (with Dortch as WR1)
• 22nd in passing touchdowns (Dortch)
• 21st in net yards per attempt
• 2nd in rushing yards
• 7th in rushing touchdowns
• 1st in yards per rush

Although we can't say for sure Drew Petzing is a plus play-caller, there was enough to praise in his first season to bet on the Cardinals' talent, with a healthy Murray and Harrison Jr's arrival. 

An "Offensive" Line

If there's one reason Kyler Murray will fall short of our ebullient outlook, it's because the Cardinals' offensive line lets him down. The line finished 25th in PFF's year-end rankings and projects as the 26th-best line in this year's preseason rankings.

Projected Starting O-Line

• LT -- Paris Johnson Jr. (moving from right tackle)
• LG -- Evan Brown (free agent)
• C -- Hjalte Froholdt
• RG -- Will Hernandez
• RT -- Jonah Williams (free agent)

On paper, the starting five has improved, but only marginally. The X-factor is whether Paris Johnson Jr. performs well at left tackle after disappointing at right tackle as a rookie. 

Kyler Murray Stats

Kyler Murray 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

Kyler Murray is one of the more enticing bets at quarterback this season. We know he can be a top-5 quarterback because he's already done it twice. And even in the two ACL-shortened seasons, he delivered QB1 numbers (QB12 and QB11), which means he's got the rare combination of a high ceiling and floor. Although there are questions about the offensive line and Drew Petzing's play-calling, the positives far outweigh the risks, particularly with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. If you're uncomfortable drafting one of the elite quarterbacks in the first two or three rounds, Murray should be on your shortlist once you've got your starting receivers and running backs rostered. 

Footballguys Follow @Footballguys