Moving past the July 4th holiday in the United States has always signaled what I would consider the start of summer’s farewell tour. You ramp back into back-to-school shopping as a parent, and if your school had a summer reading/working program, you likely began to cram this in as we start to return to the fall-spring routine! For the upcoming fantasy football season, one of those routines is beginning to get ready (or maybe continuing the leg work for you true degenerates) to win your league! While it is normal for people to look at the star sleeper who no one knows will emerge and lead your team to victory, it is also important to look at who may have a favorable reputation but could be in for a letdown. Welcome to the 2024 IDP Busts series! We start with future Hall of Famer Khalil Mack.
Khalil Mack Returns to Form
To be considered a bust this season, we must identify why a player would be worthy of a high pick. Last season, Mack had his best statistical output since 2017. He had 74 tackles, with 17 sacks and 5 forced fumbles. He had five games where he recorded multiple sacks, and despite many doubts about whether he would be productive (let alone dominant), he proved to us that the former two-position all-pro was far from being considered washed. Comparing his latest season with his overall resume as a player, you may begin to talk yourself into why Mack will be a dominating player till the bitter end. He finished last season as DE2 (depending on your scoring), and he plays a position group loaded with talent in the NFL and college. He also didn’t miss a start last season despite having injury designations all season. So, everything is perfect, and Khalil Mack is a league winner, right? I'm sorry to say that this season, he will take a step backward.
Overcoming Volatility
IDP Fantasy Football is a game that is won with consistency. Players who win weeks are volatile; players who win leagues are consistent. Khalil Mack is an extreme example of player volatility that wins (and in a lot of cases loses) weeks. The ultimate week winner happened in Week 4 when Mack had 10 tackles, six sacks, and two forced fumbles. There is a high likelihood that if you played him in your lineup, he singlehandedly won you a game, and kudos to you if you were smart enough to start him. He had a combined nine total tackles in Weeks 14, 15, and 16 (arguably the most important stretch of the fantasy season). Would you rather have an all-time game in Week 4 or better consistency in the fantasy playoffs?
I mentioned previously that Mack had five games where he recorded multiple sacks in the same game. Any team in their right mind wants a player who can do this. A player like Mack also makes you pay for it on his off weeks. Mack also had five games where he had two or fewer total tackles. Tackle floors are key to winning in IDP Fantasy Football, but unfortunately, we don’t get a good read on what Mack can do. Mack had two or fewer tackles or multiple sacks in ten games last season. If you’re reading this, you’re likely a fan of dynasty football leagues. If this were your team and you had the choice of building around any edge rusher, how long would it take you to get to Mack as a viable option for the longevity of your dynasty?
Does Khalil Mack Have Value?
While the preceding text may appear that I have no faith or positivity towards Mack as a player, it is important to note that players like Mack still have value. He could fetch some decent capital investment from other managers, depending on your scenario. Just because he isn’t the most consistent player doesn’t mean he lacks value as your third or fourth option at the position. He has a new head coach with an old-school mindset, so running and defense come to mind immediately. This could give Mack an early season jolt of energy and motivation to improve your selling point on him as a player. Capitalize on this in any format, but specifically in Dynasty leagues.
As a player, Mack is unique because he is a buy or a sell, depending on your situation in your league. I believe he is more sell than buy, but I'll explain the buy window first. If you are a team that can compete and you are deep enough at other positions to warrant the volatility with this player, he is the ultimate buy and could push you into league-winning potential. It takes just one week with multiple sacks for you to look like a genius, and he proved that at age 32, he can still do this at a very high level. He cannot be your DE1 if you’re trying to win, but he can be a defensive flex or your DE2. If he isn’t the positional focal point of your team, he can and will help you. I am choosing to sell him as soon as possible because, as we see with most players who play a position of such intensity, you never know when it could be over. Last year, Mack achieved his first monster season in nearly eight years. This year, there will likely be a beginning-of-the-year pop that managers can and should take advantage of. Thirty-three is old in the NFL, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Closing
Khalil Mack will undoubtedly go down in history as one of his generation's most dominating defensive football players. He was a star the moment he was drafted out of Buffalo in 2014 and has been a model of what NFL star players should be like. His time as a fantasy asset is ending, and managers should see what he will be worth on the block. This will be his last season as a double-digit sack performer, and we likely never see his tackles reach this limit again. So get out while you can, but make sure you hold till you get the price he is worth! This is a chess game, folks. While I have dragged him in this article, he still is a valuable player in the right formats. Isn’t that why we love this game so much?
Follow me on X @mattmontyff and make sure you’re following @Footballguys to save time, worry less, and win more!