The Consensus Top Dog
Josh Allen has been one of the best fantasy players at any position for the last four seasons. He has finished as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback three times and came in a close second in the other year. His dual-threat abilities set him apart in an era of mobile quarterbacks, and he once again ranks as the top option across the industry.
Allen is the consensus QB1 across the industry. He is our consensus QB1, as well, with 9 of 13 staffers ranking him QB1. One staffer ranks him QB2, two more (me included) rank him QB3, and one ranks him QB4. No one ranks him lower. His ADP is QB1, and he is 27th overall.
Is History on His Side?
Josh Allen is in rarified air. He's been a top-2 fantasy quarterback in four consecutive seasons, and if our 2024 rankings are accurate, he's set to make it a five-year streak. For context, I looked at the top-3 fantasy quarterbacks in each of the last 25 seasons.
Top-3 Fantasy (Points per Game) QBs (2009-2023, Minimum 8 Games)
| Player | Top-3 Finishes | Longest Top-3 Streak | Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 5 | 2008-2012, 2014, 2016 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 4 | 2020-2023 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 3 | 2002, 2004-2006 |
| Drew Brees | 5 | 3 | 2008, 2009, 2011-2013 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 2 | 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 2 | 2002, 2023 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 2 | 2000, 2001, 2003 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 2 | 2014, 2015, 2017 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 2 | 2007, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2021 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 2017 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 1 | 2014 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 1 | 2007, 2009, 2018 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 1 | 2000 |
| Cam Newton | 1 | 1 | 2015 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 2005 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 1 | 2017 |
| Deshaun Watson | 1 | 1 | 2019 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 1 | 2021 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 1 | 19,992,001 |
| Kyler Murray | 1 | 1 | 2020 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 1 | 2019, 2023 |
| Marc Bulger | 1 | 1 | 2005 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 1 | 2016, 2018 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 2019 |
| Michael Vick | 3 | 1 | 2002, 2006, 2010 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 1 | 2013 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | 3 | 1 | 2018, 2020, 2022 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 1 | 2004, 2006, 2013 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 1 | 2008 |
| Rich Gannon | 1 | 1 | 2002 |
| Robert Griffin III | 1 | 1 | 2012 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 1 | 1999 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 1 | 1999, 2003 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 1 | 2007 |
Key Takeaways
- Aaron Rodgers is the only player with a five-year consecutive streak and the overall leader with seven top-3 finishes.
- Tom Brady had six top-3 finishes but never did it for more than two consecutive years.
- Drew Brees achieved five top-3 finishes, with his longest streak being three years.
- Josh Allen is already alone in second place with his four-year streak.
While rare, it's not impossible for Allen to deliver another top-3 finish in 2024.
Life without Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs is now a Houston Texan. Regardless of what you think about Diggs in 2024 and beyond, it's impossible to overstate how valuable he was to Josh Allen during his 4-year run atop the fantasy rankings.
Stefon Diggs Stats and % of Bills Passing Game (2020-2023)
| Year | Gms | Tgts | Recs | Yds | YPR | TDs | %Tgts | %Recs | %Yds | %TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 16 | 166 | 127 | 1,535 | 12.1 | 8 | 27.9% | 31.0% | 33.2% | 20.0% |
| 2021 | 17 | 164 | 103 | 1,225 | 11.9 | 10 | 25.0% | 24.8% | 28.6% | 27.8% |
| 2022 | 16 | 154 | 108 | 1,429 | 13.2 | 11 | 26.8% | 29.9% | 34.1% | 31.4% |
| 2023 | 17 | 160 | 107 | 1,183 | 11.1 | 8 | 27.6% | 27.8% | 28.5% | 27.6% |
| Average | 16.5 | 161 | 111 | 1,343 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 26.8% | 28.4% | 31.1% | 26.7% |
Diggs was an alpha in the true sense, commanding nearly 27% of Josh Allen's targets, passing touchdowns, and over 31% of his passing yards. But the 2023 stat line hides a mysterious falloff in Diggs' performance late in the season.
- Weeks 1-9: WR4 with 70 receptions, 834 yards, and 7 touchdowns
- Weeks 10-18: WR45 with 37 receptions, 349 yards and one touchdown
The question we need answered is how Diggs' drop-off affected Josh Allen's fantasy value. The answer? Not at all.
- Weeks 1-9: QB2 with 2,423 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 9 interceptions, 233 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns
- Weeks 10-18: QB1 with 1,883 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 9 interceptions, 291 rushing yards, and 9 rushing touchdowns
Allen remained atop the fantasy standings (in fact, he went from QB2 to QB1), although how he got there changed. His passing effectiveness fell off considerably, but his rushing touchdowns spiked enough to keep him atop the rankings.
The Bills WRs ADP vs. Allen's: Something Has to Give
It's hard to understand how we can all feel confident in Allen's continued success as the top quarterback while we seemingly have no faith in his wide receivers. Here are the current ADPs for the Bills' receiving corps:
2024 Bills Wide Receivers, Current Positional, and Overall ADP
| Player | WR-ADP | Ovr-ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 46 | 99 |
| Curtis Samuel | 50 | 114 |
| Khalil Shakir | 54 | 126 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 110 | 277 |
| Chase Claypool | 115 | 294 |
| Mack Hollins | 132 | 342 |
Rookie Keon Coleman is the first off the board but is being targeted as a low-end WR4 in 12-team leagues. Veteran free agent Curtis Samuel follows closely behind at WR50, and incumbent Khalil Shakir comes off the board at WR54.
If we're right about Allen's fantasy prospects, we're collectively wrong about the Bills receivers.
Here is a list of the top five fantasy quarterbacks for each of the last five seasons, along with their No. 1 and No. 2 receivers and their rankings.
64% of the top-5 quarterbacks had a top-12 fantasy receiver, and 80% had at least a top-24 fantasy receiver. Nearly everyone had a top-36 option. So, while it's not impossible for Josh Allen to sustain elite production without an alpha receiver, the odds are strongly against it. I know some of you are saying, "Dalton Kincaid is the de facto No. 1." While that's true, you have to understand that many of these quarterbacks also had robust secondary fantasy options, including elite tight ends.
The Joe Brady Era
I wrote a deep dive into all the NFL's new play-callers and analyzed Joe Brady, who took over as interim last year before officially getting the job this offseason. He's enigmatic, and we cannot be sure he'll sustain the Bills' recent productivity.
No one can argue with a 6-1 record after the team—a preseason AFC favorite—had struggled to a 5-5 record under Dorsey. Ultimately, what changed was fairly simple: Brady remained committed to running the ball regardless of the game script. Dorsey fell in love with the passing game and would too often abandon the run, which led to turnovers and predictable play patterns. Brady dramatically altered the run/pass ratio, and that seemed to fix things, even though statistically, the offense was already putting up a ton of points.
2023 Bills Offense: Ken Dorsey vs. Joe Brady
| Play-Caller | Dorsey | Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 7 |
| Cmps/Gm | 24.6 | 19.9 |
| Atts/Gm | 35.0 | 32.7 |
| Cmp% | 70.3% | 60.7% |
| PaYds/Gm | 260.0 | 243.7 |
| YPA | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| PaTD/Gm | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| TD% | 5.4% | 4.4% |
| INT/Gm | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| INT% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Sack% | 3.1% | 5.7% |
| Rush/Gm | 25.2 | 37.0 |
| RuYds/Gm | 116.5 | 149.4 |
| YPRush | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| RuTD/Gm | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| TD/Gm | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Pass% | 58.9% | 48.3% |
| Run% | 41.1% | 51.7% |
| PPG | 26.2 | 27.0 |
We don't want to read too much into a seven-game sample, but if Brady's tendencies last year hold, Allen will look very different in 2024 and will need to rely on his rushing output even more than he already does to sustain fantasy greatness.
Is the Offensive Line a Competitive Advantage?
The Bills offensive line ranked 6th in PFF's year-end analysis, partly because the unit played all 17 games together.
- LT Dion Dawkins (1,120 snaps)
- LG Connor McGovern (1,136 snaps)
- C Mitch Morse (1,129 snaps)
- RG O'Cyrus Torrence (1,164 snaps)
- RT Spencer Brown (1,161 snaps)
This year's unit will look a bit different as Morse departed in free agency. The plan entering training camp is to move McGovern to center and insert David Edwards, last year's swingman, into the left guard spot.
- LT Dion Dawkins
- LG David Edwards
- C Connor McGovern
- RG O'Cyrus Torrence
- RT Spencer Brown
It's worth noting that Footballguys offensive line guru Matt Bitonti is skeptical about this year's reshuffled line, ranking the unit 15th versus PFF slotting them in as the No. 8 unit.
What If Allen's Rushing TDs Normalize, but the Passing Offense is More Conservative?
Josh Allen scored 15 rushing touchdowns last season, which helped offset Joe Brady's conservative passing attack in the second half of the season. Let's play devil's advocate and say that Brady's run/pass ratio sustains, but Allen's rushing touchdowns normalize. How would he rank as a fantasy quarterback?
| Year | Gms | Rush | RuYds | RuTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 12 | 89 | 631 | 8 |
| 2019 | 16 | 109 | 510 | 9 |
| 2020 | 16 | 102 | 421 | 8 |
| 2021 | 17 | 122 | 763 | 6 |
| 2022 | 16 | 124 | 762 | 7 |
| 2023 | 17 | 111 | 524 | 15 |
| Average | 16 | 109.5 | 601.8 | 8.8 |
Allen averaged 7.6 rushing touchdowns in his first five seasons. Let's apply the Bills team tendencies under Brady and substitute Allen's 15 touchdowns with a more reasonable eight scores.
Per-Game Stat Projections Assuming Brady's Tendencies plus Allen's Historic Rush TD Average
| Stats | Per Game |
|---|---|
| Comps | 19.9 |
| Atts | 32.7 |
| PaYds | 243.7 |
| PaTD | 1.4 |
| INT | 1.0 |
| Rushes | 7.0 |
| RuYds | 38.4 |
| RuTD | 0.4 |
| FPTs/Gm | 20.8 |
Allen would score 20.8 fantasy points under this scenario. This is how 20.8 fantasy points would've ranked in recent seasons:
- 2023 -- QB5
- 2022 -- QB6
- 2021 -- QB10
- 2020 -- QB13
- 2019 -- QB7
- 2018 -- QB8
- 2017 -- QB4
- 2016 -- QB6
- 2015 -- QB7
- 2014 -- QB4
- Average -- QB7
While a QB7 finish isn't a disaster, it's far less than you expect if you draft Josh Allen as the QB1 in the third round.
Josh Allen's Recent Stats
| Season | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | 409 | 646 | 4407 | 36 | 15 | 122 | 763 | 6 | 3 |
| 2022 | 17 | 362 | 573 | 4316 | 35 | 14 | 126 | 776 | 7 | 5 |
| 2023 | 17 | 385 | 579 | 4306 | 29 | 18 | 111 | 524 | 15 | 4 |
Josh Allen 2024 Projections
| Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.3 | 351.6 | 538.3 | 4158 | 26.6 | 14.4 | 111.0 | 560 | 9.3 | 3.9 |
| Justin Freeman | 17.0 | 289.2 | 409.3 | 4622 | 28.6 | 10.5 | 109.3 | 554 | 6.8 | 5.2 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 357.0 | 548.0 | 3985 | 27.5 | 15.0 | 121.0 | 580 | 11.0 | 3.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 16.8 | 382.0 | 589.0 | 4169 | 23.9 | 18.1 | 113.0 | 538 | 10.9 | 1.9 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 359.0 | 560.0 | 4140 | 26.0 | 14.0 | 101.0 | 550 | 8.0 | 5.0 |
Final Thoughts
Josh Allen has been the best fantasy quarterback since becoming the full-season starter four years ago. If he delivers another top-3 finish this year, he'll tie Aaron Rodgers' consecutive top-3 streak. The consensus assumes that Allen is the plug-and-play No. 1, and he'll almost assuredly be drafted first in most redraft leagues. But what if we're being complacent? There's a new offensive coordinator. Stefon Diggs is gone. The offensive line is undergoing significant changes. And Allen's 15 rushing touchdowns last year are almost assuredly a massive outlier, considering he averaged half that in his prior seasons.
The good news is that even if last year's conservative game plan under Joe Brady continues and Allen's rushing touchdowns normalize, it looks like he has a top-8 floor. So as long as Allen is healthy, drafting him won't be a disaster. However, if you take a quarterback in the third round, you want more than "not a disaster." You want a weekly difference-maker, a game-breaker. My projections have him as the QB3, still part of the elite tier. But you might be better off focusing on another position in the third round of drafts this year and letting someone else count on another QB1 finish.
