Motor City Bargain

Over the last few seasons, a shift has occurred in fantasy football. With the rise of truly elite quarterback options, fantasy managers are reaching earlier and earlier in their drafts to secure a starting quarterback. Last season, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes II II were all taken by the end of the second round, on average. While having a set-it-and-forget-it quarterback is excellent, there could be more value for those willing to wait on the position. Jared Goff, for example, was a top-5 fantasy option last season, and the Lions' schedule suggests he could repeat his success in 2024.

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Home in a Dome

Jared Goff plays better indoors. This narrative has followed Goff for the last few seasons, and in 2024, it could mean big things for fantasy managers. Here are his splits over the previous two seasons, with dome and retractable roof statistics combined:

When looking at only his indoor games, Goff has a 17-game pace of 4650 yards and 36 touchdowns. Those statistics would have led the league last season, and "Dome Goff" would have been the best quarterback in fantasy. Perhaps more astounding is how much better he is indoors versus outdoors. Along with a 4-percent increase in completions and 27 more yards per game, Goff throws more than double the touchdowns per game indoors.

In 2024, the Lions play 14 of their 17 games inside a dome or retractable roof. Outside of a Week 5 bye, Week 9 at Green Bay, and Weeks 16 and 17 at Chicago and San Francisco, Goff will be in a climate-controlled, fantasy-friendly environment for nearly every game. This schedule bodes well for Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions.

A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships

If you combine Goff's averages for indoor and outdoor games, he could finish the 2024 season with 4,572 yards and 33 TDs. Interestingly, that is almost his exact yardage total from 2023, with three more touchdowns. While some expect regression in 2024, we could easily see improvement. These numbers from Goff should again mean great things for the Detroit Lions this season.

Last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown was the third-best receiver in fantasy, putting up 1,515 yards and ten touchdowns. Sam LaPorta also scored ten times and was fantasy's best tight end. Jahmyr Gibbs ranked in the top 10 among running backs in receptions. With 70 vacated targets, Gibbs and third-year receiver Jameson Williams should see more involvement this season. Add in a projected three more touchdowns from Goff, and St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs all have top-5 upside yet again.

What About Those Other Games

It's all well and good to talk about the 14 indoor games Goff has, but do we need to worry about the other three? In short, yes. Unfortunately, two of the three outdoor games occur in Weeks 16 and 17, the semifinals and fantasy football championship weeks.

The first problematic matchup is Week 9 at Green Bay. It will be early November, so it's not quite winter in Green Bay, and the weather shouldn't be a problem. Goff has played seven career games against the Packers, averaging 240 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game. However, in his last two matchups at Lambeau Field, he's only averaged 11 fantasy points. Hopefully, this turns into a shootout, as both offenses are in good shape for 2024, but you might need a pivot option.

Now, let's look to the fantasy playoffs. With Goff's expected strong performance, you'll hopefully be looking at a bye. In Week 16, Goff plays in Chicago, which is concerning. In nine games against the Bears, Goff averages 214 yards and just over a touchdown per game. His recent history isn't much better, again averaging just 11 points over his last two matchups in the Windy City. Late December in Chicago is rough; you'll need a backup plan on your roster.

Finally, the Lions travel to San Francisco for the Week 17 fantasy championship. Jared Goff has faced the 49ers nine times in his career, averaging 213 yards and 1.9 touchdowns per game. While the game is outdoors, the weather should be fine, and it should be a high-scoring affair. These two teams faced each other in the NFC Championship last season, scoring a total of 65 points, with Goff registering 17 fantasy points. Many best ball players had this game circled for their Week 17 correlation builds.

Could Goff take a step back in the fantasy playoffs? Absolutely. His matchups are not ideal. But with his regular-season schedule, he could be the very reason you got there in the first place.

Jared Goff's Recent Stats

Jared Goff 2024 Projections

Jared Goff Is The Perfect Late-Round QB

Calling Goff a late-round quarterback feels like a bit of a misnomer. He is currently going in the 8th round. However, he is also the 12th quarterback drafted, on average. With most fantasy leagues comprising 10-12 teams, he is likely the last starting quarterback drafted.

In the fantasy regular season, you'll only need to worry about Goff during his Week 5 bye and a Week 9 game at Green Bay. So, for 12 of your first 14 matchups, you'll have an elite quarterback that you drafted 3-5 rounds later than the rest of your league. You can't win the championship unless you make the playoffs, and Jared Goff is poised to help you claim your spot.

Moreover, Goff's strong indoor performance, combined with the favorable schedule, indicates he can be a reliable starter for the majority of the season. While his outdoor games in the fantasy playoffs are concerning, savvy fantasy managers can plan for these weeks by securing a solid backup quarterback. This strategy maximizes the value of your draft picks and provides flexibility during critical matchups.

Ultimately, Goff represents an excellent blend of consistency, upside, and draft value. For those willing to wait on selecting a quarterback, he offers a path to outperform early-round quarterbacks at a fraction of the cost. With the proper planning and roster management, Goff could be the key to your fantasy football success in 2024. Don't underestimate the potential of this late-round gem—he might just be the difference-maker you need to win your league.

Be sure to follow Ryan Weisse and Footballguys on X to stay up-to-date on fantasy football news this summer.

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