The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Subscription, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.

Can a Good Back Become a Great One?

Isiah Pacheco is the 11th running back off the board and the 30th player taken overall. This is a strong endorsement for a player who has yet to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing or score ten touchdowns. However, it reflects his seemingly entrenched role as the Kansas City Chiefs' lead tailback. It also suggests a collective belief that a good fantasy player can evolve into a great one. 

Pacheco was a 7th-round draft pick out of Rutgers University in 2022 and, like most picks in the final round, was viewed as a development option most likely destined for a career on special teams. But fate smiled upon Pacheco, and coaches trusted what they saw from the young running back in the preseason and during his rookie training camp. 

Isiah Pacheco, Season Stats (2022-2023)

Last year, Pacheco played in 14 games and was on the field for 60% of the team's snaps. Every other running back on the roster played less than 25% of the snaps, led by Clyde Edwards-Helaire (21%). 

All eyes were on whether the Chiefs would restock the running back room this offseason because even though Pacheco was effective, he didn't come close to the impact that some of Andy Reid's better-known tailbacks, like Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles, had. Fortunately, the Chiefs mainly stood pat:

Depth Chart

• RB1 Isiah Pacheco 
• RB2 Deneric Prince—Undrafted last year out of Tulsa, Prince sat on the practice squad for most of the season before being activated for two games but didn't take an offensive snap. 
• RB3 Clyde Edwards-Helaire—Started 13 games as a rookie in 2020 and steadily lost favor, culminating in last year's 87-touch season. After finding the free-agent waters chilly, Edwards-Helaire re-signed with Kansas City on a one-year, $1.7 million deal.
• RB4 Louis Rees-Zammit—A rugby player turned developmental prospect, Rees-Zammit joined the Chiefs under the International Pathway Program. 

The path is clear for Pacheco to sustain last year's 60% snap share at a minimum. That's just one reason to be excited about his fantasy prospects.

Reasons for Optimism

1. The clear-cut No. 1 tailback on the roster (which we just covered)
2. Andy Reid is the best coach in the league
3. The offensive line is among the league's best units
4. Patrick Mahomes is the league's best quarterback

In Andy Reid We Trust

With Bill Belichick's departure from New England, Andy Reid becomes far and away the longest-tenured NFL head coach. He's been a head coach for 25 consecutive years (26th in 2024), including 14 years in Philadelphia and 11 (and counting) in Kansas City. No one coaches that long in the League without being an all-time great, and Reid already stands in rarified air.

• Regular Season Wins -- 258 (4th all-time)
• Games over 0.500 -- 114 (4th)
• Years in Playoffs -- 19 (Tied-1st)
• Playoff Wins -- 26 (2nd)
• Conference Championships -- 5 (Tied-3rd)
• Super Bowl Victories -- 3 (Tied-3rd)

It's not often we have 25 years of coaching tendencies to reference, so let's embrace the opportunity.

No. 1 Running Backs, Andy Reid (1999-2024)

The far right column shows the fantasy ranking for each of Reid's lead backs. You'll notice quite a few had fantasy relevance:

• Three (12%) were the No. 1 overall fantasy back
• Seven (28%) finished as top-5 backs
• Fourteen (56%) finished as RB1s (Top 12)
• Nineteen (76%) finished in the Top 25

Those are compelling odds. How many cohorts have a better than 50% chance of being RB1s? But as you scan the table, you'll see six of the seven elite (Top 5) seasons came while Reid was the Eagles head coach, and the lone Chiefs season came in Reid's first. In other words, the Chiefs haven't been as fertile fantasy ground for Reid's tailbacks.

You'll see averages for different cohorts at the bottom of the table.

• PHI RB1s averaged 17.6 fantasy points (PPR) per game (RB12)
• KC RB1s have averaged 15.6 fantasy points (RB18)
• KC RB1s during the Patrick Mahomes era have averaged just 14.3 fantasy points (RB22)

Considering Pacheco is being drafted as a top-12 fantasy back, we have to believe he'll be demonstrably better than the typical lead back during Mahomes' prior seasons. We can see that Reid hasn't historically been against giving running backs heavy workloads, and there's often no rhyme or reason. Can Pacheco get more than 205 carries? Given the rest of the depth chart, it seems possible. Kareem Hunt had a 2720-carry season. Jamaal Charles ran the ball 259 times in 2013. LeSean McCoy had 273 carries sandwiched in between much lighter workloads. Brian Westbrook had three sub-200 carry seasons as the Eagles lead back before averaging 250 carries over his final three seasons. There's no reason, based on historical precedent, why Pacheco can't have a heavier workload. But since we've yet to see it during the Mahomes Era, we shouldn't count on it. 

The Offensive Line is Impressive

Projected Starting Lineup:

• LT Wanya Morris
• LG Joe Thuney
• C Creed Humphrey
• RG Trey Smith
• RT Jawaan Taylor

Our own Matt Bitonti recently updated his 2024 offensive line rankings and views the Chiefs as the No. 4 overall unit. They rank 3rd and 1st in run blocking and pass blocking, respectively. The line's interior is undeniably elite, whereas the tackles are question marks. If the line fails to live up to Bitonti's ranking, it's because Morris and Taylor didn't raise their level of play. 

Patrick Mahomes Keeps Defenses Honest

We don't need to spend much time making the case for Patrick Mahomes II. He's already on a Hall of Fame trajectory and, in an era of resurgent quarterbacking, stands atop the list. But how does Mahomes' greatness impact Pacheco and the other KC running backs?

He doesn't throw to them much, relative to his peers

Running Back Target Share (2018-2023)

He does open the field up by minimizing stacked boxes

Defenses understandably fear Mahomes more than any other quarterback and are, therefore, reluctant to stack the box (8+ defenders). Fewer stacked defenses means more running room; it's an undeniable benefit. Credit to our friends at Sharp Analysis for running the numbers:

% of RB runs into loaded boxes

84% - SF
81% - CHI
80% - TEN
78% - BAL
77% - NO
77% - HOU
76% - GB
76% - PIT
76% - DEN
75% - LV
74% - ATL
73% - DET
73% - NYJ
70% - CAR
70% - MIN
69% - SEA
68% - IND
67% - DAL
67% - PHI
66% - JAX
65% - MIA
65% - NYG
65% - BUF
65% - LAC
64% - ARI…

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 4, 2024

If you scroll all the way down Warren's post, you'll see that the Chiefs only faced stacked boxes 57% of the time, by far the lowest rate. 

Isiah Pacheco Stats

Isiah Pacheco 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

Pacheco finished as RB14 last year despite competing for playing time with Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs let McKinnon walk and were more than willing to let Edwards-Helaire do the same, although he did re-sign on a low-end one-year deal. The other backs likely to make the roster are a converted rugby player and a practice squad player, neither of whom has ever taken a regular-season offensive snap. Barring injury, Pacheco is set to receive plenty of work running behind an excellent offensive line with the least crowded boxes of any tailback, thanks to Patrick Mahomes II. If that's not a recipe for success, what is? Now, that doesn't mean there aren't questions. KC running backs haven't been all that great in the Mahomes era, generally performing as RB2s instead of RB1s. Since Pacheco is being drafted as an RB1, there's little room for profit. But sometimes building a successful fantasy roster is about taking early-round players who MEET their ADP values versus exceeding them. I'd feel VERY comfortable drafting Pacheco as my RB2, but there are plenty of pathways that could justify selecting him as your RB1.

Follow @Footballguys