In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
If you're the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy games, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, and Sam LaPorta might or might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. We're tossing out the aforementioned top-ranked players and digging deeper to find some borderline players who might outperform expectations.
Who knows? We might even find this weekend's version of Thursday night's star, Isaiah Likely.
Conversely, I'll be fading some players you might not be comfortable fading. That's the whole idea. We're looking for Thursday's Mark Andrews in advance.
One more time: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys rankings/projections.
Quarterback
In: Jared Goff, Detroit vs. LA Rams
Fantasy players love our narratives, and Goff brings a couple of them to Sunday night's opener against the Rams. While I'm not big on the revenge game narrative, Goff's home-road splits absolutely come into play for me. According to SI.com's Michael Fabiano, Goff has averaged 19.4 points in his 25 regular-season games as a Lion at Ford Field. Last year, he averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game at home (per FantasyPoints data). Five of Goff's 20-point performances in 2023 came against defenses that ranked bottom 15 against the position.
That's pertinent because, as ESPN's Tristan Cockroft notes, the Rams allowed the third-most fantasy points (18.9 points per game) to quarterbacks in 2023, a number that rose to a league-worst 21.9 over the final seven weeks. This week, the Rams arrive in Detroit minus the now-retired Aaron Donald, with some turnover at cornerback and a new defensive coordinator for a game with the highest over/under of the week (50.5).
Bottom Line: Goff is QB12 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. I'm expecting him to exact his revenge by exceeding our 18.7-point projection in this one.
Out: Dak Prescott, Dallas at Cleveland
While we're discussing home-road splits, can we include Prescott's? Dak averaged 25.3 points per game in Dallas last season en route to his QB3 finish. That success came despite a 16.8-point average on the road. Sunday, he'll play in Cleveland against a Browns defense that Cockroft contends might be this year's toughest against the pass. Part of that comes from having the league's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett, and a trio of outstanding cornerbacks (Martin Emerson and Denzel Ward playing the boundary and Greg Newsome II playing the slot).
Per ESPN's Mike Clay, Cleveland allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last season. Adding to the concern, Prescott's top downfield weapon, CeeDee Lamb, is coming off a summer-long holdout. Will he be ready to put in a full workday?
Bottom Line: Prescott is QB18 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. The Cowboys may throw the ball enough (35 attempts? 40?) to hit our 17.1-point projection. But in leagues/contests where I have viable options at QB, I'll eagerly turn to them.
Running Back
In: Zamir White, Las Vegas at LA Chargers
Skepticism about White's role and ability to deliver are prevalent in fantasy. As Matthew Berry wrote on Rotworld this week, "White won't be used in the passing game, will split early down work with Alexander Mattison, and be on a Raiders team that will not be in scoring position all that often." Nonetheless, my flag is firmly planted. Josh Jacobs was on pace for an 80 percent share of the carries before suffering a quad injury that cleared the way for White late last season. He responded by averaging 114.3 yards from scrimmage per game over the team's last four contests. White was RB9 during that stretch, thanks mainly to volume. His 24.3 opportunities per game were no accident. According to The CoachSpeakIndex, head coach Antonio Pierce's self-proclaimed "magic number" for his running backs is 20-plus touches per game.
Meanwhile, the Chargers' defense was among the worst in yards allowed per game and struggled against the run in 2023, giving up 18 rushing touchdowns while allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Bottom Line: White is RB26 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. I view him as more of a locked-in RB2 who will benefit from Pierce's approach and produce more than our projected 10.9 fantasy points.
Out: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England at Cincinnati
As the Boston Globe noted this week, Stevenson has been outspoken in his desire to be the feature back this season, and with Antonio Gibson (hip) questionable this week, the returning starter figures to have a significant role in Cincinnati on Sunday. He has been the Patriots ' best and most consistent offensive option when he’s been healthy the last two years (he missed five games at the end of the 2023 season). He rushed for 1,659 yards in 2022 and 2023, an average of 830 per season. He’s averaged 4.5 yards per carry and caught 107 passes in that same stretch.
Meanwhile, the Bengals finished in the bottom half in most major defensive rushing stats in 2023, including yards per rush allowed (4.7, 29th) and total yards allowed (2,155, 26th).
So why am I out here? Because if we've learned something over time, it's that offensive lines matter. And according to Footballguy Matt Bitonti, the Patriots offense ranks 31st as a run-blocking unit. This week, they'll likely be without projected starters Vederian Lowe (oblique) at left tackle and Sidy Sow (ankle) at left guard. I know what you're thinking. Stevenson can get it done as a receiver. Per Berry, Cincinnati's defense ranked top 10 in fewest receptions allowed and receiving yards allowed to backs last year. Also, the Patriots have the lowest implied team total in Week 1, and they tied for the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL last season.
Bottom Line: Stevenson is RB20 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. While I believe his floor is safe (we project him for 12.48 points), those needing to swing bigger might want to look elsewhere.
Wide Receiver
In: Calvin Ridley, Tennessee at Chicago
Everything is different for starting quarterback Will Levis. A year ago, he made his NFL preseason debut as a rookie in Chicago as the team's No.3 QB. On Sunday, he'll return to Soldier Field for the regular season opener as the team's starter, with new faces all around him, an improved offensive line, and an offensive-minded head coach in Brian Callahan. It's enough for Berry to predict Levis will take "a big step forward, becoming a borderline top 12 fantasy QB" this year. If that happens, Ridley, one of those new faces, will be a big part of it. What kind of role should we expect? Callahan said that upon Ridley's signing, the newcomer would play a role "very similar" to what Ja'Marr Chase plays in Cincinnati.
Levis led the league in deep-pass attempts and first-read throws from Week 8 on last year. While Bears corner Jaylon Johnson will be a challenge, Florio contends Ridley is the Titans’ best field stretcher and will be Levis’ first read regularly. Last season, Ridley had the fifth-highest passer rating when targeted on passes of 20-plus yards, and the Bears had the 11th-lowest defensive success rate on deep passes, per Next Gen Stats.
Bottom Line: Ridley is WR38 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. He's projected to score 11.92 points. I see that as Ridley's floor and his potential ceiling is much higher if Levis takes that "big step forward."
Out: Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco vs. NY Jets (Monday Night)
In case you somehow missed it, Aiyuk missed all of camp and the preseason due to a contract dispute, leaving his conditioning and timing with Brock Purdy as open questions. Aiyuk might hit the ground running and pick up where he left off. Or, he might need to be eased into his usual role. Even at that, this isn't the best opponent for us to sort all this out. It's not a reach to believe the 49ers' game plan will lean more heavily on Christian McCaffrey and the running game Monday night.
Clay reminded his readers that the Jets return their elite cornerback trio, with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed on the perimeter and Michael Carter II in the slot. That group allowed the fewest receptions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points to wide receivers last season. Aiyuk works out wide and will see plenty of Gardner and Reed. Only five wideouts had receiving touchdowns against the Jets last season. It's all enough for ESPN analytics guru Seth Walder to predict Aiyuk will record fewer than 20 receiving yards.
Bottom Line: Aiyuk is WR27 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. He's projected for 13.36 points. Cockroft notes that Aiyuk averaged 12.9 fantasy points and 7.7 targets against the eight toughest defenses against the position in 2023. Even if you're not looking to bench Aiyuk, keep your expectations in check.
Tight End
In: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh
It feels like we've been waiting forever. Pitts' TE10 finish as a rookie marked his best fantasy output. He fell off to TE33 in 2022 while missing seven games with a meniscus tear. He was TE13 last season. But things have changed for the better. While a new player caller, Zac Robinson, will undoubtedly help, it's the change at quarterback we should all be happiest about. As CBSSports.com put it: "Kirk Cousins loves his tight ends." How much? T.J. Hockenson (TE2 when Cousins went down with his torn Achilles in Week 8 last season), Kyle Rudolph (TE10 in 2018, Cousins' first season as a Viking), and Washington's Jordan Reed (TE3 in 2015, Cousins' first season as a starter; and TE9 in 2016) all excelled with Cousins as their triggerman.
Florio notes that two years ago, 59 percent of Pitts' targets were uncatchable. That was the highest rate in the NFL. Last year, his QBs were bottom two in catchable target rate. Cousins ranked No. 2 in that category.
Bottom Line: Pitts is TE10 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. We have him projected for 9.77 points. I expect him to move into double-digits going against a Steelers defense that ranked in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends last season.
Out: David Njoku, Cleveland vs. Dallas
I know. He was excellent down the stretch last year. He averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game over the final five weeks of the season. Of course, all those games and points came with Joe Flacco at quarterback. And that's the issue here. Njoku is a fine player. He's capable of delivering high-end production -- he led all tight ends with 10 end-zone targets last year. The problem is, we haven't seen him do it with current starter Deshaun Watson.
Since 2022, Njoku has averaged 9.0 fantasy points per game over 11 appearances with Watson. Only one of those 10 end-zone targets came from Watson.
Bottom Line: Njoku is TE7 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. His projected 10.86 points are well within his range of possible outcomes. But going against a Dallas defense that allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends last season, with Watson as his QB? You might not have safer options, but it's worth checking.
My Favorite Outlier
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver at Seattle
The drumbeat has been increasing all offseason long. Local observers have been raving about McLaughlin, who impressed as an undrafted rookie. As Berry pointed out, McLaughlin, who took 16 percent of his carries for 10-plus yards last season, was eighth in fantasy points per touch. That he opens the season against a Seattle defense that allowed the fourth-most rushes of 10-plus yards last season is great. But there's more. Head coach Sean Payton loves his receiving backs, and that's where McLaughlin can excel. Dating back to his 16 years with the Saints, players like Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara have all been very productive in Payton's passing attacks. So, it's interesting that almost a third of rookie starter Bo Nix's collegiate pass attempts went to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, which plays into McLaughlin's strength.
Bottom Line: McLaughlin is RB40 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings with a projected 8.04 points. As our own Sigmund Bloom suggested, if Denver’s defense allows Seattle to open up a lead, McLaughlin could see a lot of work in the second half.
That's it for this week. Remember, take chances responsibly. Mitigate risk when possible. Your hunches matter more than mine. Carefully consider your needs, and when in doubt, defer to the Footballguys Rankings and Projections.
You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.