In and Out: Week 1 Edition

Photo: USA Today Sports

In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).

In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.

If you're the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy games, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, and Sam LaPorta might or might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. We're tossing out the aforementioned top-ranked players and digging deeper to find some borderline players who might outperform expectations. 

Who knows? We might even find this weekend's version of Thursday night's star, Isaiah Likely. 

Conversely, I'll be fading some players you might not be comfortable fading. That's the whole idea. We're looking for Thursday's Mark Andrews in advance. 

One more time: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys rankings/projections. 

Quarterback

In: Jared Goff, Detroit vs. LA Rams

Fantasy players love our narratives, and Goff brings a couple of them to Sunday night's opener against the Rams. While I'm not big on the revenge game narrative, Goff's home-road splits absolutely come into play for me. According to SI.com's Michael Fabiano, Goff has averaged 19.4 points in his 25 regular-season games as a Lion at Ford Field. Last year, he averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game at home (per FantasyPoints data). Five of Goff's 20-point performances in 2023 came against defenses that ranked bottom 15 against the position. 

That's pertinent because, as ESPN's Tristan Cockroft notes, the Rams allowed the third-most fantasy points (18.9 points per game) to quarterbacks in 2023, a number that rose to a league-worst 21.9 over the final seven weeks. This week, the Rams arrive in Detroit minus the now-retired Aaron Donald, with some turnover at cornerback and a new defensive coordinator for a game with the highest over/under of the week (50.5). 

Bottom Line: Goff is QB12 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. I'm expecting him to exact his revenge by exceeding our 18.7-point projection in this one. 

Out: Dak Prescott, Dallas at Cleveland

While we're discussing home-road splits, can we include Prescott's? Dak averaged 25.3 points per game in Dallas last season en route to his QB3 finish. That success came despite a 16.8-point average on the road. Sunday, he'll play in Cleveland against a Browns defense that Cockroft contends might be this year's toughest against the pass. Part of that comes from having the league's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett, and a trio of outstanding cornerbacks (Martin Emerson and Denzel Ward playing the boundary and Greg Newsome II playing the slot). 

Per ESPN's Mike Clay, Cleveland allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last season. Adding to the concern, Prescott's top downfield weapon, CeeDee Lamb, is coming off a summer-long holdout. Will he be ready to put in a full workday?

Bottom Line: Prescott is QB18 on the Footballguys Week 1 Rankings. The Cowboys may throw the ball enough (35 attempts? 40?) to hit our 17.1-point projection. But in leagues/contests where I have viable options at QB, I'll eagerly turn to them.