IDP Stock Market Week 6

Personal Note: The Stock Market will take a week off as I will be traveling for my honeymoon. We"ll see you again in Week 8.

What is the first thing you should look for when looking at a market? For most, it is identifying positive trends. Whether it is the NASDAQ and looking for green over red or this market looking at risers instead of the fallers. While it is never a bad thing to start there, I would caution people not to limit themselves to this process. Sometimes it is equally important, if not more important, to look at the downward trends and understand buy windows or potential sell windows. Negative and positive do not mean good or bad here; they simply mean where they are versus where they were. Sometimes, it's due to coaching changes, snap count limitations, or injury, but regardless of the why, you must know when and where to look. That’s why you come here! Twelve players a week with explanations of why we like or dislike. So, without further pontification, it’s time to ring the bell!

Fortune 5

Stock Up: Sam Hubbard, Cincinnati

I’ll start with my biggest “L” from last week. Hubbard was on the hate list, and I will convince myself his masterful performance is because he’s a Footballguys subscriber, and he must be reading these… All jokes aside, he had a MONSTER game versus the Ravens this past Sunday. 9 total tackles and a sack bring him to the top of the list this week. He had 12 total tackles going into the game and 0 sacks, and I stand by what I said last week. B.J. Hill returned for the Bengals, and we saw Hubbard get more 1-1 opportunities. He made his presence known in this matchup. I think I'd wait and see one more game before I rush to put him back in the lineup permanently, but it was encouraging to see the Bengals' defensive line, and Hubbard specifically, get back to form this week.

Stock Up: Andrew Van Ginkel, Minnesota

Van Ginkel has been around for a little while now, but he hasn’t ever been considered a “star” player for IDP. I believe we can begin treating him as one of the best in the NFL. In the Week 4 Stock Market, I mentioned that you can't rely on touchdown production from a defensive player, but he is a player that needs to be started weekly from now on. Well, I was only half right. HE SCORED AGAIN SUNDAY! He has been the absolute waiver wire pickup of the year because there is no way I'll ever believe someone had the foresight to draft him! All jokes aside, he is proving to us that he is in the set-and-forget category of starters and his worst game of the season still had four solo tackles. 19 tackles, three sacks, three defended passes, and two touchdowns have me wanting more Van Ginkel than I've ever thought I'd need, and that still might not be enough for my appetite!

Stock Up: T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh

There isn’t much that needs to be said here, but it has been too long since I mentioned the greatness that envelopes Watt. This felt like as good a week as any to praise the king of all edge rushers. He had his best game of the season (a season by the way in which he has had a sack in nearly every game) with eight total tackles, a sack and a half, and a forced fumble. He is the type of player that quite literally changes games and game plans. He is arguably the most scouted defensive player in the entire NFL and in IDP he is on a short list of players you would build your team around. He’s 29, which, of course, makes us scared for the future, but he is still a dynasty buy, and if you're lucky enough to have him, NEVER SELL HIM! He's pacing for nearly 60 total tackles and 15 sacks on the season. Good luck to fantasy managers who run into him on the opposing team.

Stock Up: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Cleveland

Cleveland has been dying for a start defensive player for the better part of 5 years, but we may have a legitimately stumbled-on one here after many years of development. Last season was his best year, but he barely tallied over 100 tackles with minimal stats in between. This season, though, we are seeing Owusu-Koramoah blossom into the player Cleveland fans and IDP fans alike have been dreaming he would be. He’s sitting at 39 tackles with a sack, forced fumble, interception, and two defended passes through the first five weeks of the season. For context, that is all his forced fumbles, half of his interceptions, and 2/3rds of his defended pass total of all last season. This is pacing to be the career year for Owusu-Koramoah, so if you need some young dynasty linebacker help, he’s a player I would be willing to move heavy capital to acquire. If I'm a manager who has him, remind yourself what you have here: a 24-year-old ascending linebacker who may become a defensive focal point.

Stock Up: Dorian Williams, Buffalo

One of the best parts of playing Dynasty Fantasy Football is the ability to watch young players take over roles they were drafted to take over. The Bills have had linebacker anonymity since the Tremaine Edmunds move a couple of years ago, one that was originally filled by Terrel Bernard. Bernard excelled in this role and while he started great again this season, he suffered a setback in Week 2 and hasn’t quite got back on the bike. In the meantime, Williams has stepped up in year two to the tune of 54 total tackles on the season. He was a 3^rd round pick in the 2023 draft, which is a decent capital investment for a player at the position, but he was barely on the field his rookie season. This year, he’s leading his unit in snaps and is top five on the entire defense. We are seeing those snaps translate to huge points, and he needs to be talked about in the top 8 linebackers under 25 years old.

Falling 4

Stock Down: Justin Simmons, Atlanta

I was excited when the NFL season began with the Falcons making monster moves on the defensive side of the ball. While Matthew Judon took most of the headlines, I always felt that Simmons was the sneakiest move they could make, it may be so sneaky we don’t even really see it! He’s having an extremely slow start to the season and is overshadowed by his contemporary in the defensive back room Jessie Bates III. I’d be less concerned if he wasn’t getting snaps and was being eased into the defensive game plan, but he has played over 320 snaps this season, and all he has to show for it is 18 total tackles with an interception. He’s 30 years old, which is always cause for concern, he’s playing a high frequency of snaps and has barely anything to show for it. If you’re a manager hanging on to him, I'd be looking for a backup plan and, dare I say, maybe consider cutting him.

Stock Down: Danielle Hunter, Houston

Hunter was another acquisition I was super excited for, but I believe the Texans' defense has regressed a bit as opposed to tasking the next step. Hunter is paired with arguably his best teammate on the line he has ever played with, but he is showing us that he can't quite make the big play happen this season. It’s one thing if you can't quite take down the quarterback for a sack, but it is an entirely different issue if you're not making an impact on the game at all. He has just 13 total tackles this season and 1.5 sacks. Five of those tackles came in one game, skewing his per-game average from a realistic 1.5 tackles a game to nearly three a game. Maybe it is still too early to think of a backup plan, but if I am a manager of Hunter, I am paying close attention to his play over the next two games.

Stock Down: David Long Jr., Miami

Long has been a perplexing player to manage in a dynasty league. He can go from the best linebacker in the league to backup’s backup in a matter of quarters. He exploded out of the gate for 19 total tackles in Weeks 1 and 2 but crashed down to Earth after an injury and has had six total since, four of which were assisted tackles. He has been an ascending asset in IDP Fantasy Football for a few years now, and I still think we could see improvement in his play, but the inconsistency and the unknowns that come with him are a deal breaker for me until I see it happen steadily. He’s a great trade candidate for teams looking for assets, and if I am a buying manager, I understand that if I can stomach the risk involved with his play, I could be catching lightning in a bottle getting him in my lineup. He’s a win-win trade player who can help teams as much off of them as he can when starting for them. Make the move!

Stock Down: Chris Jones, Kansas City

Jones is another great example of name recognition being bigger than the fantasy production from the player. Ask anyone in the NFL who is the best interior defensive lineman, and 80%+ would say Chris Jones, but in IDP, he is a guy who frustrates more than he makes you jump for joy. It isn’t surprising, seeing as how teams are surely doing all they can to neutralize him, the difference is, that his impact in the game happens more by being disruptive than it is by acquiring stats. The name of the game in IDP is acquiring stats, and the “best” interior lineman isn’t cutting it with this line of 11 tackles and 3 sacks (two of which happened in the same game). He’s old, he’s not getting enough stats to produce for your team, but he is a big name. I’d try fishing him out there to other managers and see if anyone bites. If they do, take the first offer and be happy you moved off him for something and not nothing.

Premiere Pennies

Stock Up: Tykee Smith, Tampa Bay

Who doesn’t love a good hidden gem? I see your hidden gem and raise you a rookie! Smith started the season as the third safety for the Buccaneers but has had an opportunity arise with the injury to star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. We saw his snap share hover around the same counts through four weeks, but he popped off for 99% this past week tying him for first at the position for the first time in his career. We all know that Winfield Jr. will take a spot back when he returns, but if I am a dynasty manager with a roster spot available, Smith is a perfect candidate for a stash player with a very high upside. He’s produced 28 tackles this season, including 11 last week in his increased role.

Stock Up: Trevin Wallace, Carolina

Time for even more piping-hot rookie talk. The best rookies to talk about in IDP are inside linebackers! Wallace got his first career start last week and flew around the field! Both Shaq Thompson and Jose Jewell are injured, and Wallace seemed to get both their tackle totals! He had 15 total tackles, which is the best game of his fresh career, but I think the real story here is getting an opportunity and then exploding. Coaches notice things like this, and if the injuries linger for the Panthers, he could be a dynasty darling AND league winner as a rookie. The 21-year-old third-round pick has a bright future ahead and I wouldn’t exactly call the competition for snaps in front of him insurmountable…

Stock Up: Justin Strnad, Denver

Are you ready to get weird? I'll give a dollar to anyone who can tell me with a straight face that they knew that one of the gems of the year was going to be Strnad. Since the devastating injury to Alex Singleton, Strnad has been the man who has had not only his snap share increase but the stats too. Last week he showed an ability to pass rush, getting a sack in the game against the Jets, this week he showed us what we all love to see from an inside linebacker. Tackle floors and volume. He has 13 tackles and a sack since the injury to Singleton and needs to be rostered in all leagues and formats. He has short-term potential to be a quality starter for your teams.