John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to offer guidance for the week to come.

Well, y'all—this is it. Championship Week (in most IDP leagues). If you're reading this, odds are you are one of two teams still left standing. When the dust clears, one team will be left—and that team will be the champion.

This is what IDP managers have been working toward all season long. But victory in Week 17 won't be easy. Every lineup call could be the difference between victory and defeat. Between glory and despair. The margin for error is slimmer than in any other week of the season.

No pressure.

Destiny on the Defensive Line

There has literally never been a week in the history of this column when IDP managers more needed you dorks to be right. So, get your head in the game, and let's do this.

In some IDP leagues, a smash week from a defensive lineman can be the sort of score that wins a week—or, in this case, a championship. Which non-elite option has the best chance to do that in Week 17, and which high-end lineman is set to disappear when needed the most?

Guru: It crossed my mind to put Atlanta Falcons edge-rusher Matthew Judon in the sleeper category. A string of eight games with six or fewer fantasy points could have landed him solidly to that category, but I'll give the benefit of the doubt and go with “non-elite” status. Judon began showing signs of life in week eleven and has three sacks over the last five games. He will have a tough time improving on the 23 points he racked up against the Giants last week, but a matchup with the Commanders should help. Washington has allowed 3.6 sacks per game since week eleven, including 2.5 per game to the edge position. They are also fantasy-friendly to the position when it comes to tackle production, ranking near the top at 10.4 per game. Factor in that, not counting sacks, they have allowed five splash plays in the last six games, and Judon gives us a good, high-upside option. 

As a Bengals homer who will be at this week's game, it pains me to call out Trey Hendrickson as a potential bust. Yes, he is leading the league in sacks. Yes, he had a lot to do with getting managers to the doorstep of a championship. If only he were playing someone besides Denver. Edge defenders tend to put up mediocre tackle numbers versus the Broncos, but Denver is stingy in the sack department, allowing five sacks to all positions combined over their last five games. 

Godfather: The top four teams in terms of sacks allowed have already played this week. But sitting fifth in the league in that regard is the Las Vegas Raiders, who have given up 49 sacks in 15 games. New Orleans Saints edge-rusher Carl Granderson hasn't produced the numbers that IDP managers expected in 2024, but this week's matchup affords the sixth-year veteran an opportunity to finish the IDP season strong.

Sitting Minnesota Vikings edge-rushers Jonathan Greenard or Andrew Van Ginkel in a must-win game is an awfully tall ask—the pair both rank among the top five at the position in fantasy points for the season. But this week the Vikings host a Packers team that has surrendered just 16 sacks all season long. In their first meeting with Green Bay back in Week 4, neither Greenard nor Van Ginkel was able to get home for a sack.

Linebacker Lineup

Defensive linemen may score big in some leagues, but having a solid lineup of linebackers is critical to victory in every IDP league out there.

Which linebacker ranked outside the top 15 in the Footballguys Week 17 rankings is most likely to be a title-winning breakout? Which big name most makes you antsy?

Guru: Edgerrin Cooper of the Packers falls just outside the top 25 in our consensus rankings this week, but I can safely say it's not because I ranked him that low. He has a good matchup with the Vikings, but this one is more about the player than the opponent. He is still not playing every snap, but apparently, he doesn't need to. Cooper was productive, if a little inconsistent, earlier in the year when he was getting about 65% of the playing time. With Quay Walker sidelined, Cooper's snap count was up last week and his production with it. The three games he missed, starting in week twelve, gave him fresh legs for the playoff push. This is a bigger deal than most people realize, especially when it comes to rookies. Cooper is 14-3-1 with an interception and 2 passes defended in the last two games. He's been even more impressive on the field than the numbers tell. This guy is going to be special.

When I took Foyesade Oluokun in round one of the King's Classic Butkus Division draft back in August, I never dreamed I'd be nervous about starting him late in the year, but this game is fickle. Unfortunately, I don't have to worry about it in that league after my team went AWOL in Week 16. Oluokun has simply not been the same player this year that we've seen in the past. He has exceeded 13 points in one game since week one and has four or fewer solo stops in five of his eleven games, including two of the last four. The Titans were a stellar matchup early in the season but have faded considerably of late as the offense struggles, not to mention that they are banged up at running back. At best, Oluokun has a low ceiling and a moderate floor.    

Godfather: Can we not talk about the Butkus Division? The Guru wasn't the only manager who was bounced in the semis a week ago.

Over the second half of the 2024 season (from Week 8 on), the Las Vegas Raiders may not be winning, but they are giving up fantasy points to linebackers—sixth-most in the NFL. At 35 years young, Demario Davis has remained a productive IDP asset, hitting double-digit stops in four of the past six games. With 114 total stops on the season, Davis has a real chance to close out what may well be his last NFL season with a big stat line.

The New York Jets have struggled to maintain offense this season, and it shows in more ways than one—no team in the AFC has allowed fewer points to linebackers this year than the Jets. Terrel Bernard of the Buffalo Bills has finally gotten some momentum going, with double-digit stops in three straight games. That momentum may well be slowed this weekend against Gang Green—at the worst time imaginable.

Cracking Defensive Backs

Quite a few defensive backs make a habit of exploding in one week and then disappearing the next. This week, knowing which is which can make or break the entire season.

Which streamer in the secondary will bring home IDP titles in Week 17? And which defensive back will fantasy managers rue starting?

Guru: The defensive back conundrum sunk a lot of ships last week as the position was turned upside down. Justin Reid, Eric Murray, Marte Mapu, Isaiah Pola-Mao, Reed Blankenship, and Jordan Battle all land in the top ten. We might not see any of those guys near the top in week 17. The guy I expect to take one of their places is Carolina safety Demani Richardson. He was a surprise starter for the Panthers last week when the team not only benched Jordan Fuller but also made him inactive. Richardson's tackle numbers were a modest 3-3, but he played every snap, adding an interception for a solid point total. Richardson is auditioning for the future, so his motivation will be high. A plus matchup with the Buccaneers won't hurt either.

Kyle Dugger of the Patriots is a player who bucks trends. He often has his better games against poor matchups but will sometimes vanish in spite of strong ones. If you have to start him, there is hope. If you have other quality options, consider that just two safeties have recorded more than two solo tackles against the Chargers since week eleven. One of those was Ar'Darius Washington, who had a modest 4-0.

Godfather: I actually have a fair amount of confidence in Battle backing up last week's numbers in a decent matchup with the Broncos. But Saturday games also make me irrationally nervous. Richardson is also an excellent call against a Buccaneers team that is allowing the most fantasy points to safeties.

In fact, it's Richardson's batterymate who The Godfather will highlight this week. Veteran Xavier Woods has quietly had a decent season for fantasy managers—he's a top-20 safety in points for the year. Again—no team has given up more fantasy points to the position than the Buccaneers—both Richardson and Woods could eat this week.

Xavier McKinney of the Green Bay Packers has been a valuable fantasy asset this season—he's ninth in fantasy points among safeties for the year. He also had an interception when the Packers and Vikings met in Week 4. However, in that game, McKinney also had just one solo stop and three assists. If he doesn't get another big play against the Vikings, McKinney could be ripe for a letdown week.

Sleeper Time

In Week 17, no one wants to need to start an IDP sleeper. Plenty of us have to, though, whether it's due to injury or a need to roll the dice on the upside as a fantasy underdog.

A defensive lineman. A linebacker. A defensive back. All about to wake up at the perfect time.

Guru: From the offseason through week two, we would not have considered Matthew Judon a sleeper. A string of eight games with six or fewer fantasy points landed him solidly in that category. Judon began showing signs of life in week eleven and has three sacks over the last five games. He will have a tough time improving on the 23 points he racked up against the Giants last week, but a matchup with the Commanders should help. Washington has allowed 3.6 sacks per game since week eleven, including 2.5 per game to the edge position. They are also fantasy-friendly to the position regarding tackle production, ranking near the top at 10.4 per game. Factor in that, not counting sacks, they have allowed five splash plays in the last six games, and Judon gives us a solid, high-upside option. 

The Giants sent Bobby Okereke to IR last week and will likely be without Micah McFadden this week as he nurses a sore neck. That puts Darius Muasau in line for the green dot helmet and the lead linebacker role versus the Colts. New York was run over by Atlanta last week, with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combining for 33 carries. That led to an eleven-tackle day for Muasau. At the same time, the Colts were bulldozing Tennessee to the tune of 50 running plays. The Giants are defenseless and, by the looks of how they played last week, already have their bags packed for the flight home after Week 18. My crystal ball shows a worn-out Muasau making his way to the locker room after a very busy day.

It has already been mentioned that there's some risk involved with trusting Bengals safety Jordan Battle in Week 17. But the second-year pro has 17 total tackles, a fumble recovery, and an interception the past two weeks and draws a top-10 fantasy matchup for his position this week in Denver. Had Battle not fumbled the ball through the end zone against Tennessee a couple of weeks back, his numbers would be that much gaudier.

Godfather: Someone really likes Judon this week.

There are certain constants in the universe we can all depend on. Death. Taxes. And the New York Giants struggling to protect the quarterback. No team in the NFC has allowed more fantasy points to defensive ends this year to the G-Men. Indianapolis Colts edge-rusher Kwity Paye hasn't taken the step forward in 2024 that some IDP pundits expected, but with 1.5 sacks over the last two games of the season, he can at least match his 2023 sack numbers.

Jordan Hicks of the Cleveland Browns has battled injuries this year and hasn't posted big numbers—especially for a linebacker wearing the green dot and playing every snap. But Hicks has at least nine total tackles in three of the past four games, and this week the Browns take on a Miami Dolphins team surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points to linebackers in 2024.

Jordan Poyer isn't the IDP option he once was—there will be no 100-tackle season for the veteran safety in his first year with the Miami Dolphins. But the Cleveland Browns have ranked at or near the top of the league in fantasy points allowed to safeties, and no team in the NFL has thrown more interceptions. Poyer gets a pick in Week 17 and finishes the IDP campaign on a high note.

Championship Week Advice

This is a week unlike any other. It's a one-week campaign. Win…or else.

What's the best piece of advice you can offer IDP managers on navigating Championship Week?

Guru: My best advice for championship week is not to outsmart yourself. We will spend more time analyzing matchups this week than any other during the season. It is easy to overthink and convince ourselves that we know how a game will go and how to take advantage of it. Then we kick ourselves for the entire offseason for making a bad decision. If you have to choose between equal players, roll with the best matchup, but don't let the matchup talk you into benching a better, more dependable player for a guy who might make a couple more tackles.    

Godfather: Boy could The Godfather stand to heed that advice. I'm in the finals in the Deathmatch IDP league, and I have moved from second-guessing to triple-guessing and on to quadruple-guessing—especially on the defensive line. If I'm not careful, I'm going to overthink myself right into a loss.

Most weeks, I legitimately don't care who my opponent starts. It matters not. The goal is to set a lineup that will score the most fantasy points, regardless of who your opponent starts. But in this one-week season with so much at stake, I usually peek at the other guy—if only to get a feel for whether I'm a favorite or an underdog.

If my team is the former, then in close lineup calls, I may lean toward safer, higher-floor IDP plays. But if I'm taking on Simon Bar Sinister, then it's upside upside upside. Shoot for ceiling. At the end of the day, beaten by 10 or beaten by 110 is the same thing.

Good luck this week!

John Norton (The Guru) and Gary Davenport (The Godfather of IDP) have over 45 combined years of IDP experience. Follow John on Twitter (still not calling it X, so there) at @JohnPNorton and Gary at @IDPSharks.