John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to offer guidance for the week to come.

It's Week 16. In most fantasy football leagues, that means just four teams remain in the championship hunt. Just one win separates IDP managers from a trip to the championship game.

But getting that win won't be easy—there are no easy matchups this time of year. Teams don't get this far with rosters riddled with holes. There's no margin for error—it's essential to get every point out of the starting lineup possible.

The Guru and the Godfather are here to help IDP managers do just that.

Victory in the Trenches

This isn't the week to waste time with jibber-jabber—IDP managers need wins. Points. The right players in the lineup. So, let's get to it.

Identify one defensive lineman who will greatly exceed expectations in Week 16—and another who will fail to meet them.

Guru: Let me open by pointing out that the level of difficulty in picking out matchups increases significantly over the final few games of the season. In October, we look mostly at tendencies and previous production for or against, with a few injury situations sprinkled in. In December we have those things as well as weather, the effect of accumulative injuries, players being benched or promoted for various reasons, teams with nothing to play for who are looking to the future, teams that have everything to play for who are not looking past this week, etc. We still have big decisions to make, there is just more to consider in many instances. One bit of advice I would give is not to study stale numbers. I don't like to look more than five games back at most.  

Josh Sweat of the Eagles is a player I am getting into my lineups this week. He doesn't put up a lot of tackles on most weeks but has eight sacks over the last ten games and three in the previous five. The Eagles have a divisional game that has them butting heads with the Commanders in a game that has playoff implications for both teams. Washington eked out a win at the wire last week despite giving up eight sacks to New Orleans. That makes 20 they have allowed over the last five games. With a great matchup and no lack of motivation, I can see Sweat turning in his best statistical performance of the season in this one.

Carl Granderson got in on the sack-fest against the Commanders last week and is giving us decent tackle totals on most weeks but he is still having a poor season compared to expectations. The Saints have nothing to play for but pride. They played hard and took Washington to the wire last week but there is no guarantee we will get the same effort after the team took even more significant injuries. All of that is food for thought but the main reason I am pessimistic about Granderson is taking on a Packers offense that has allowed four sacks in their last five games with an average of four tackles and a little over one assist per game to the edge position.

Godfather: There hasn't been a lot that has gone right for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2024—a team with playoff aspirations entering the season will likely leave it with a top-five pick in next April's draft. But edge-rusher Travon Walker continues to mature as a player—if the first overall pick in 2022 can notch 1.5 sacks over the season's last three weeks, he'll hit 10 for the second straight season. The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 47 sacks this season and the sixth-most fantasy points to defensive ends. Walker has a good shot at getting closer to double-digits in Week 16.

The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league this year, but as a whole they have pass-protected well—26 sacks allowed and the 11th-fewest fantasy points surrendered to defensive ends. Tennessee Titans edge-rusher Harold Landry III has been hot of late, with sacks in three of his last four games. But that hot streak will be almost as hard to keep going as watching that dog of a game will be for the 17 people who attempt to.

Locking in Linebackers

Linebackers have been making and breaking IDP lineups all season long, and they will continue to do so in many leagues this week.

Point out a linebacker who could be a week-winner in the semifinals—and one who may be about to sink some seasons.

Guru: No defender has been more dependable than Ernest Jones IV, who has at least nine fantasy points in every game since joining the Seahawks. However, he has not yet given us a 20-plus pointer. That could change this week against a Vikings offense that has been the best matchup in the game for linebackers since week 10, including two who have reached 20 points.

Christian Rozeboom of the Rams is at the other end of the spectrum. Yes, he is coming off his third 15+ point game in the last six weeks. Yes, he has been rock solid since taking over the lead role for the Rams. Yes, it would be difficult to pull him from our lineups this week. On the other hand, the Jets have given up the fewest points per game to linebackers over the last five weeks by more than two points per game. It doesn't sound like much but that is a wide margin in fantasy terms. For a better perspective, consider that Kyzir White was 1-4 against them in week 10, Zaire Franklin 3-1 in week 11, and Foye Oluokun 3-1 last week. The only linebacker with more than 4 solo stops versus the Jets in the last five games was Ernest Jones IV at 6-2.

Godfather: The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled defensively this season, and the absence of inside linebacker Logan Wilson hasn't helped matters any. That injury thrust Germaine Pratt into the role of defensive signal-caller, and Pratt now ranks among the top 15 fantasy linebackers for the season. With the Cleveland Browns going to Dorian Terrible-Robinson at linebacker, the team will undoubtedly lean heavily on Jerome Ford and the run game, and no team in the AFC has given up more fantasy points to linebackers in 2024.

Blake Cashman of the Minnesota Vikings may not be a great NFL linebacker, but when healthy this season he has been a productive fantasy asset, including three contests with double-digit stops. He won't get No. 4 in Week 16—the sixth-year veteran takes on a Seattle Seahawks time that has spent most of the season mired at the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to linebackers.

Secondary Concerns 

At this point in the season, the last thing IDP managers want is inconsistency. Unfortunately, inconsistency is also what many defensive backs do best.

Save fantasy managers from a Week 16 disaster by highlighting a defensive back set to smash this week and another about to go full David Copperfield and disappear.

Guru: If I were picking one player from all safeties to start this week, it would be Kevin Byard III of the Bears. He's recorded fewer than nine fantasy points just twice since week one so the floor is both high and safe in a week that we can't afford a bust. Byard totaled 10 tackles and a pass breakup when these teams met in week thirteen. The Lions have become reacquainted with Sam LaPorta over the last month and Byard tends to make a lot of plays against tight ends. I could probably find a player with better statistical reasons but sometimes you just have to go with your gut. Mine is screaming for Byard this week.    

I was high on Quentin Lake going into the season (I have him in 7 of 9 IDP leagues). He was money for the first eleven weeks but as the Rams have come to life, Lake's fire has all but gone out. He's reached 7 fantasy points once in the last four games and has a horrible matchup with the Jets, who are the third-worst matchup for safeties since week 10.  

Godfather: The Godfather hopes the Guru is spot-on about Byard—badly need a big game from the veteran safety in the King's Classic Butkus Division.

FWIW, of the four teams left in that expert's league, the writers of this column manage two of them.

As the esteemed Mr. Norton already mentioned, living in the now can be important when selecting late-season starters. Over the past month, Donovan Wilson of the Dallas Cowboys has been a top-15 fantasy safety. The Cowboys have been blasted by injuries at linebacker over the past few weeks, and Sunday night Dallas faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that leads the league in fantasy points surrendered to safeties. The ingredients are all there for a big week from the 29-year-old.

Kyle Hamilton of the Baltimore Ravens is one of the NFL's best young safeties. For the season, he ranks 10th in fantasy points at the position. He managed to buck a bad fantasy matchup for his position with the rival Steelers a few weeks ago, but expecting him to do so twice this year could be asking for trouble. Hamilton's a very difficult player to sit in the fantasy playoffs, but expectations should be tempered.

Sleeper Time

We'll skip the foreign language lesson of the week—no time for shenanigans in the IDP playoffs.

You know the drill—it's Sleeper time. A defensive lineman. A linebacker. And a defensive back who will be the biggest surprise star of Week 16.

Guru: If you take out the games in which Alex Highsmith of the Steelers was injured, he's missed more time this season than he has played. He is healthy now and if we look at his last three games, is on a roll. In those contests, he is 12-3-4. The Ravens are a mediocre matchup for the edge position over the past month but with T.J. Watt garnering so much of the attention, I have a feeling that Highsmith will make an impact in this one.  

I'll stay in the same game but jump to the other side for my linebacker sleeper. Malik Harrison of the Ravens has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks. Against the Giants, he logged almost 80% of the snaps while Trenton Simpson played 4. Harrison led the team in total tackles at 2-6-1 last week and has an above-average matchup with a Steelers team that is allowing 20 tackles and just shy of one splash play per game to linebackers since week ten.

Here's a bone for managers in need at the corner position. D.J. Reed returns to the lineup for the New York Jets this week, just in time to face a red-hot Rams offense. Reed is not a guy who makes a bunch of splash plays but he is a consistent tackler. With Sauce Gardner likely covering Puka Nacua, Reed will see a lot of Cooper Kupp. That's the same Cooper Kupp who was shut out last week. How many times have we seen teams emphasize a star player the week after a dud? Let's just say often. While the Rams don't turn the ball over very often, the corner position averages a whopping 13 tackles, 5 assists, and 2 pass breakups against them.  

Godfather: I have been beating the drum for Detroit Lions edge-rusher Za'Darius Smith all week long, so I might as well give it another thump. Smith was quiet last week in a terrible pass-rush matchup with the Buffalo Bills, but he has 2.5 sacks over the past three games and will be chasing around the NFL's most-sacked quarterback in Chicago's Caleb Williams.

With E.J. Speed (knee) ruled out for Week 16, Grant Stuard will draw the start at linebacker opposite Zaire Franklin against a Tennessee Titans team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to linebackers this year. In Stuard's lone game as a full-time linebacker this season, the fourth-year pro piled up 19 total tackles against the Miami Dolphins.

With rookie Tyler Nubin out for the season after ankle surgery, Dane Belton has moved into the starting lineup for the New York Giants. Las week, Belton erupted for 15 total tackles (seven solos) and a sack. This week, Belton and the Giants face the Atlanta Falcons, who have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to safeties in 2024.

Bonus Round

You know what? For the last part of this week's column, it's Dealer's Choice. You two supposedly know what you're doing. So, impart some of that knowledge.

A player you love in Week 16. One you hate. Strategy. Advice. A Haiku. Whatever.

Guru: Andrew Van Ginkel of the Minnesota Vikings won the David Copperfield award last week for the best vanishing act in a great matchup, while his linemate, Jonathan Greenard, stole the spotlight. This week I'll make Greenard the headliner against a Seattle team that's dishing out points to edge defenders like rich folks pass out candy for trick-or-treat. Over the last five weeks, the Seahawks have allowed an average of 9.2 tackles and 2.6 sacks per game to the edge position. For the full-size Reese's, Seattle will either have a backup QB under center or a hobbled Geno Smith. Either way, I expect the Minnesota pass rush to tee off.

Hate is such a strong word. Let's go with, I strongly dislike Myles Garrett this week. Part of that is because I'm a Bengals homer, and he is usually such a thorn in their side. Setting apart the fandom angle, Cincinnati is no longer the stellar matchup for pass rushers they had been for years. They have allowed 2.6 sacks per game since week ten but just 1.1 to the edge position. The bigger factor is their stingy ways when it comes to tackles. Edge defenders have averaged three solo stops and 2.6 assists against them over the past month.

Godfather: I'll resist the urge to go with the haiku here—and you shut your lying mouth about Myles Garrett, pal. The Godfather needs a big game from him this week, too.

Rather than mention a particular player here, I'll go with a bit of advice. The stakes this time of year are sky-high. Win this week, and it's on to the championship game. Lose, and the season's over. That can lead to paralysis by analysis—to IDP managers making themselves nuts by turning every lineup pick into a life-or-death decision. Do your research. Follow your gut. Set your lineup—and then relax. In my experience, making a bunch of last-second switches or flip-flopping about your starters backfires much more often than not.

Happy holidays to you and yours—and best of luck in Week 16.

John Norton (The Guru) and Gary Davenport (The Godfather of IDP) have over 45 combined years of IDP experience. Follow John on Twitter (still not calling it X, so there) at @JohnPNorton and Gary at @IDPSharks.