John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to offer guidance for the week to come.

The 2024 fantasy football season has flown by, and Week 14 is already here. That means it's the end of the regular season—and for many IDP managers, a victory this week is a must if the season is to continue.

In this must-win week, those fantasy managers need all the help they can get.

And The Guru and The Godfather are here to help them keep the season from coming to a premature end.

Do or Die

This is a do-or-die week for many IDP managers, so we'll start things off in that vein.

Offer up one non-obvious IDP you'd be eager to start in a must-win game ("Do") and a big name who makes you nervous about slotting them in a must-win week ("Die").

Clever, ain't it?

GURU: Get Arizona Cardinals safety Jalen Thompson into your lineup this week. He's been a marginal third starter at best this year but has maintained a fairly high floor. Thompson reached double-digit points twice over the first eight games, falling short of eight just once before the week nine injury. He missed the week twelve meeting with the Seahawks, who have been the fifth-best matchup for safeties since week six. Coincidentally, his backup, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, was 6-3 with a pass breakup and a tackle for loss in that game. Thompson had a season-high 14 fantasy points against Miami in week eight. He could improve on that with this matchup.

Do not put Buffalo Bills edge rusher Greg Rousseau in your lineup this week. Yes, he's been on a big roll of late and is seeing around 80% of the snaps on most weeks. This is more about the opponent. Only the Bills have allowed fewer points to edge defenders over the last seven weeks than the Rams. Los Angeles is stingy in the sack department, giving up less than two per game on average since week six, with a .7 average to edge defenders. It's not just the sacks, though. Over that span, the edge position as a whole has averaged fewer than four solo tackles and less than 2.5 assists.

GODFATHER: For the season, New York Giants linebacker Micah McFadden ranks third on his team in tackles, has played 73 percent of the team's defensive snaps, and ranks 35th in fantasy points among linebackers. But McFadden has seen a snap share of at least 75 percent in each of the past four games, he draws a matchup with a New Orleans Saints team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to linebackers and Bobby Okereke out in Week 14.

However, while McFadden should shine this week, teammate Brian Burns will likely continue what has been an underwhelming first season with Big Blue. The New Orleans Saints haven't done a lot right this season. They have been solid in pass protection—less than two sacks allowed per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game given up to defensive ends. Don't get Burns-ed in a must-win week.

Clever, ain't I?

Walk the Line

Plenty of our readers need a win to make the playoffs (or earn a Round 1 bye), so get off your butts and help them get one.

Identify a defensive lineman set up in a smash spot in Week 14 and another that's about to go splat.

GURU: Calijah Kancey of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made his season debut in Week 6. In seven games, he is 18-2-6 with a pair of turnovers. Five of those sacks and both turnovers have come in his last four games. Then there is the matchup. The Las Vegas offense is a goldmine of value for all defensive line positions with the interior guys faring even better than the edge defenders on the stat sheets. Since week six, defensive tackles as a whole are averaging 9.4 combined tackles per game, including 1.6 sacks and half a turnover. Kancey has to be licking his chops over this matchup.

I already talked about the other side of the Rams vs Bills matchup. Byron Young of the Rams might be an even worse option than Rousseau in this game. Josh Allen is the game's least-sacked quarterback, going down six times in the last seven games. Edge rushers have four sacks and one forced fumble against Buffalo since week five, and the Bills have not lost a fumble to any position since week four. Not to mention that opponent's edge defenders average 3.3 tackles and 2.4 assists as a position.     

GODFATHER: Had to know it wouldn't be long before the Guru snaked a guy I wanted to highlight. But he's not wrong about Young.

Tennessee Titans edge-rusher Harold Landry III is another big-name edge-rusher who hasn't met expectations this year—his odds of backing up last year's 10.5 sacks aren't looking good at this point. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dumpster fire of a football team, but they have also surrendered the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to defensive ends in 2024. In a must-win week, there's a good chance he disappoints—again.

Rookie quarterbacks tend to hold the ball longer than they should—and get sacked a lot as a result. In 2024, no quarterback in the NFL has been sacked more times than Chicago's Caleb Williams. Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers is questionable for Week 14, but there's no question that veteran Leonard Floyd will be out there, and with 3.5 sacks over the last three games, Floyd is a top-10 fantasy defensive lineman over that span.

Linebacker Limbo

There's no other week in the regular season than this one where a big stat line from a linebacker can make a massive difference. Vault a team right into the postseason.

Give IDP managers one such linebacker set to explode this week. And another who will turn out a dud at the worst possible time.

GURU: Last week, I told you that Jamien Sherwood of the New York Jets would deliver a lump of coal. In the grand scheme of things, four solo tackles from a linebacker is pretty much equal to that. This week, I am looking for him to crush that coal into a diamond. With the Dolphins allowing the eighth most points to linebackers over the last two months, they are not fully at the opposite end of the spectrum but it's close enough for our needs. Just last week we saw Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie of the Green Bay Packers combine for 13-7-1 with a forced fumble and a pass breakup. 

As a huge fan of Fred Warner of the San Francisco 49ers and a manager with several shares of him across my 10 IDP leagues, it pains me greatly to make this call. The Bears have allowed the fifth fewest point to linebackers since week six but there is more to this call than the opponent. It recently came to light that Warner has been playing with an ankle injury for most of the season. I'm not sure how much of a factor that is, but he has not sniffed a double-digit point total since week ten. Over the last three games, Warner is a combined 7-6-0. Those are the kind of numbers we are used to getting from him on one game.

GODFATHER: In quite a few IDP drafts over the summer, Foyesade Oluokun of the Jacksonville Jaguars was the first linebacker drafted. Thanks to a combination of injury and a puzzling early-season rotation at the position, Oluokun has been a major disappointment—he barely ranks inside the top 50 linebackers for the year. But Oluokun was on the field for 98 percent of the defensive snaps last week, and Sunday he faces a Tennessee Titans team giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to linebackers in 2024.

For the most part, Jordyn Brooks of the Miami Dolphins has lived up to expectations in his first season with the Dolphins—he's a top-15 fantasy option. But this week Brooks takes on a floundering New York Jets offense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to linebackers this season, and the uncertain health status of running back Breece Hall (knee) isn't going to help matters any.

Defensive Back Breakdown

Defensive backs are maddening enough when the pressure's low. Now? It's like trying to pull an ace out of the deck with your season potentially on the line.

Deal folks some winning cards—one defensive back who will soar past expectations and a big name about to faceplant.

GURU: With so many players off the week 14 menu, I'm turning to corner streams is some start 3DB leagues. My top target is Ugo Amadi of the New Orleans Saints. He took over the starting role in week eight after Paulson Adebo was lost. In five starts Amadi is 25-6-1 with a couple of pass breakups. He's put up at least eight combined tackles in each of the last three games and has a matchup with the Giants who have allowed the fifth most points to corners since week five. Changing quarterbacks three weeks ago did not change the production of opposing defensive backs much, if any. For an added bonus, Amadi has good matchups in all four remaining fantasy weeks.

I'll go back to the Rams vs. the Bills one more time to warn against either of the Rams' safeties. As I mentioned earlier, Buffalo doesn't turn the ball over. Josh Allen has thrown two interceptions to safeties on the season. The last one was in week four. Since week six, the safety position has one forced fumble and three passes defended against Buffalo, to go with an average of 10.8 combined tackles. The average of 14 fantasy points per game allowed to the position over the last seven is almost two and a half fewer than any other team.   

GODFATHER: Chicago Bears safety Kevin Byard III has been on quite the rip of late—over the past month, no defensive back in the game has more fantasy points. That hot streak should continue this week at Levi's Stadium—the 49ers have been besieged by injuries, but the team has spent most of the season at the top of the league in fantasy points per game surrendered to safeties.

Given the ease with which the Philadelphia Eagles have rolled up and down the field offensively, one would think the team was a solid fantasy matchup for safeties. One would be wrong—the Eagles have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position this year. Carolina Panthers safety Xavier Woods has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers in 2024—he's 12th at his position in fantasy points for the season. But this week, Woods is set up to let folks down at the worst possible time.

Sleeper Time

As always, we will close this edition of The Guru and the Godfather out with some "Sovende" – under-the-radar plays who can help IDP managers keep the season going into next week.

A defensive lineman. A linebacker. And a defensive back.

Go.

GURU: The easiest way to identify an edge sleeper is to see who the Giants are playing and pick the guy that's not an every-week play for us. That formula leads us to Chase Young of the Saints this week. Different quarterback, same offensive line, same offensive results. New York is giving up 10.5 tackles, almost 2.5 sacks, and more than half a turnover per game to edge defenders since week five. I picked Young here because Carl Granderson doesn't count as a sleeper for most of us, even though he's underperformed expectations for much of the season.   

There is (almost) nothing worse than helplessly watching Monday Night Football as your opponent inches closer and closer, and you have no one playing. If you want to avoid that scenario, I have a couple of options for you. The Bengals placed Logan Wilson on IR Thursday. That means Akeem Davis-Gaither will assume the full-time role the rest of the way. Despite their struggles, Dallas somehow manages to remain a strong matchup for linebackers. Since week six, they have allowed the seventh most points to linebackers. The matchup is not the only plus, though. The Cincinnati defense can't get off of the field. They face a ton of plays every week, which means opportunity. Against the Steelers last week, Davis-Gaither turned that into 13 combined tackles. I'll be shocked if he falls short of double-digit points in this one.

The other player I like in this game is Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt. His struggles all season are well-documented and will likely lead to the team using early draft capital on the corner position. For now, however, they are shorthanded due to injuries and have no better option. Everyone else targets Taylor-Britt, I expect that approach will be a big part of the Dallas game plan as well.     

GODFATHER: The Godfather isn't sure if Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher Alex Highsmith really qualifies as a "sleeper," although he's been asleep statistically much of the season due to injury. But Highsmith isn't carrying an injury designation into Sunday's rematch with the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are the only team in the league to allow 50 sacks this year, and no team has surrendered more fantasy points to defensive ends.

The Eagles may not be a primo matchup for safeties, but Saquon Barkley and Friends have been much friendlier to linebackers—seventh in fantasy points per game to the position this season. The Panthers defense will likely be spending a lot of time on the field in Week 14, and with Josey Jewell questionable to play this week due to a hamstring injury, we could see a return to the big numbers from rookie Trevin Wallace that we saw earlier this year while Jewell was out.

Donovan Wilson of the Dallas Cowboys hasn't been able to recapture his 2022 numbers, when he eclipsed 100 total tackles, added five sacks, and was seventh in fantasy points among safeties for the year. But the sixth-year veteran got a sack on Thanksgiving against the Giants, and on Monday night, he takes on a Bengals team, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to safeties.

John Norton (The Guru) and Gary Davenport (The Godfather of IDP) have over 45 combined years of IDP experience. Follow John on Twitter (still not calling it X, so there) at @JohnPNorton and Gary at @IDPSharks.