John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to offer guidance for the week to come.

We're already 10 weeks into the 2024 IDP season, which means the time has come for the stretch run to the fantasy playoffs. Some IDP managers are angling for a first-round bye in the second season. Others still need a win in Week 11 just to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Guru and the Godfather are here to help with both—some stretch run recommendations and a breakdown of Week 11.

Stretch-Run Stars

We'll keep question No. 1 short and to the point—kind of. With the stretch run upon us, IDP managers are looking hard for a player who can turn the next month into a playoff appearance.

One defensive lineman. One linebacker. One defensive back—ranked outside the top 30 in fantasy points for the season to date.

Who are your stretch-run stars?

Guru: It was about this time last year when Tuli Tuipulotu of the Chargers started showing up. He was not on our radar this season until posting his first sack in week eight. Over the last three weeks, however, Tuipulotu is 10-4-5.5 with a batted pass. This week's matchup with the Bengals is not a strong one but after that, the only game the Chargers have against an opponent not in the top half of the league in points allowed to edge defenders, is in week 16 against the Broncos. Yes, Tuipulotu is technically a backup. He was a backup at this time last season as well. Khalil Mack is nursing a sore groin while Joey Bosa has been injury prone over the last couple of seasons and is nursing a hip issue that's had him on a pitch count over the last two games.  

It seems like every year there is a late season injury at linebacker that give us a short term standout who carries managers to championships. This year's potential golden pickup was not the result of an injury but rather a trade. When the Titans shipped Ernest Jones IV to Seattle, many of us were scratching our heads. Now it looks like the team had a plan in place. Jerome Baker came back to them in the trade, but he is picking splinters from the bench. Instead, it has become the Jack Gibbens show. Not only has Gibbens moved into the lead/every-down role, he's racked up 37 combined stops and half a sack over three games. There is one horrible matchup for linebackers on the remaining schedule, That comes in week 16 against the Colts. All the rest are mediocre or better with this weeks' game against a Vikings squad that has given up the most points to linebackers on the season.   

The only reason Tykee Smith of the Buccaneers ranks outside the top-30 is that he missed three of the last four games with a sore knee. He's been somewhat inconsistent week-to-week. That has a lot to do with all the injuries Tampa Bay has dealt with in the secondary, which has caused his role to change at times. What catches my eye about him is versatility, tenacity, aggressiveness, and most importantly, his normal role. Smith sees most of his work in the slot and is used much like some of the exceptionally productive players we have seen at that position in recent years. The bye week will help Smith get past the sore knee and I expect some big games from him down the stretch.   

Godfather: This might be low-hanging fruit, but whatever—he ranks outside the top 30 right now. Danielle Hunter of the Houston Texans hasn't had the 2024 season most expected. But 6.5 sacks also isn't terrible, Hunter has eclipsed 14 sacks in a season three times, including 16.5 a season ago. The 30-year-old is the kind of player capable of a multi-week tear that will vault him up the rankings—and IDP managers into the playoffs.

I might as well hang around Houston for my linebacker pick. Had Azeez Al-Shaair not missed multiple games with a knee injury, he wouldn't qualify for this list—even if he hasn't been as productive as some expected in 2024. The 27-year-old was back in the lineup last week against the Detroit Lions, and he posted a solid line—eight total tackles, two tackles for loss and a forced fumble. He's going to be the guy down the stretch we thought he'd be all season long.

Better late than never.

There are a gaggle of defensive backs who maybe might be could be huge down the stretch—it's
the nature of the position. Kyle Dugger of the New England Patriots has missed time with an ankle injury, but he appears headed toward a Week 11 return after limited practices to open the week. Assuming he's out there, Dugger's a proven offense on a team whose defense spends a lot of time on the field.

Week 11 Up Front

That's enough long-term thinking—time to get a win this week. Which defensive lineman is fixing to wreck Week 11, and which will break playoff aspirations by having a bad week at an even worse time?

Guru: Everyone keeps saying that Kobie Turner of the Rams is no Aaron Donald. All I can say is that if you look at the production Turner is putting up without his name attached, and compare it to what Donald had ten weeks into one of his seasons, it is virtually impossible to tell them apart. His average points per game ranks third among tackles and he could slip into first after this weeks' game. Only the Seahawks have given up more points to tackles than New England. 

As a huge Myles Garrett fan, the Godfather will give me some grief about this one. I have to call it the way I see it though. We put a lot of emphasis on sacks when projecting the value of edge defenders. If we drill in on the numbers, we find that New Orleans is not particularly stingy when it comes to sacks in general. They have given up 22 on the season. Drilling further reveals that the Saints allowed no sacks to edge defenders in five games, and one sack to the position in two other contests. The only time they have allowed two or more was against the Chargers in week eight. New Orleans is a Scrooge to edge defenders in every other category as well. The edge position averages fewer than four solo tackles against them and no opposing edge defender has produced a turnover. The bottom line is that the Saints have surrendered the fourth fewest points to the edge position. There are few managers in a position to sit Garrett but understand that he has a tough assignment in this one.  

Godfather: He's just doing the Garrett thing to hurt me. Some people. Sheesh.

Every year there's a giant bulls-eye matchup for pass rushers. In 2023, it was the New York Giants and their 85 sacks allowed. This year, it's the Cleveland Browns, who have surrendered 43 to date this season. Twice in the next month T.J. Watt of the Steelers will Godzilla that Tokyo, but this week the honors go to Carl Granderson of the New Orleans Saints.

George Karlaftis of the Kansas City Chiefs has worked his way into quite a few starting IDP lineups in recent weeks—before last week's dud he had sacks in three straight games. But his Week 10 clunker came in a bad matchup for defensive ends, and this week the former Purdue star gets an even worse one. No quarterback in the NFL has been sacked less this year than Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.

Linebacker Breakdown

In many IDP leagues, a linebacker blowing up can be a matchup-winner. Ask the folks with DeMarvion Overshown shares in Week 10. Who is this week's Overshown—the surprise LB1? And who is the high-end name who will post tackles you can count on one hand?

Guru: If I were going to place a bet on a surprise LB1 this week, I'd put my money on the Blake the Cash Man. He was back in action last week after missing time with a toe injury and was right back in the lead role. Cashman is a good player who was a solid contributor for us before the injury. With the four-week break, he has fresh legs and a matchup with the Titans, who have given up the third most fantasy points to linebacker entering Week 11.

It doesn't seem to matter which quarterback is under center. The Colts offense is simply not good right now. They can't move the ball on the ground because they can't throw it well enough to stop defenses from stacking the box. Ultimately, the result is an offense that is not on the field and ugly stat sheets for opposing linebackers. With Indianapolis allowing the fewest points to linebackers through Week 10, it would be a good idea to keep Quincy Williams of the Jets on our benches this week for anyone who has that option.

Godfather: My esteemed colleague already mentioned Jack Gibbens (Every year we get one—we just never know who it'll be.), but Kenneth Murray Jr.. of the Tennessee Titans is another linebacker who should be in starting lineups for IDP managers this week. The Minnesota Vikings lead the league in fantasy points per game allowed to linebackers, and it's Murray who has been making the defensive play calls in Nashville.

The Atlanta Falcons are no longer the single-worst IDP matchup for linebackers in the league. But they have been buried at or near the bottom of the NFL in that regard all season long. Cody Barton of the Denver Broncos is a member of the Anzalone Association—a matchup-dependent average talent who makes half his tackles six yards downfield. It might be a good week to consider other options—because a big game is unlikely.

Week 11 Defensive Backs

Picking a week-winning defensive back is like choosing Powerball numbers—the payoff could be huge, but the odds aren't in your favor. Which DB is about to hit the proverbial jackpot, and what higher-end player won't get even one number right?

Guru: With the 49ers coming to town, there will be some busy safeties in Seattle this week. This game features a Seahawks team that allows the most points to the position, against a San Francisco squad that is second, just .19 points per game behind them. With the 49ers heavily featuring George Kittle in recent weeks, Julian Love has to be among the favorites to be the DB1 in Week 11

There are two ways for defensive backs to score points. They can do via splash plays that generally come in coverage situations, or by making tackles in run support. Both pathways require an opponent that can move the ball to create opportunities. Mac Jones doesn't throw interceptions because he doesn't throw the ball down the field and the Jaguars can't move the ball on the ground because they can't throw it. This doesn't bode well for Brian Branch or Kerby Joseph of the Lions in Week 11.

Godfather: For the season, the Dolphins have been a middling fantasy matchup for safeties in 2024. But the return of Tua Tagovailoa rather changes the offensive dynamic for the team, and they rank among the league leaders in tackle opportunities allowed per game. Miami should be able to move the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders Sunday, keeping Tre'von Moehrig busy. Another big week for one of this year surprise standouts on the back end.

Since The Guru had to take both Lions safeties (some people are just takers), I'll go elsewhere with my defensive back pick. The Baltimore Ravens lead the NFL in total offense, but they have also given up the fewest fantasy points per game to safeties. Lamar Jackson isn't making mistakes, and the Baltimore offense has been lethally efficient. Minkah Fitzpatrick of the Pittsburgh Steelers might be a big name, but leave his little numbers on the bench this week.

Sleeper Time

Finally, it's time to go deep. To call a few Schwellen (it's German). You know the drill—one under-the-radar defensive lineman. One linebacker. One defensive back. Surprise smashes all.

Lasst uns ein paar Ärsche treten.

Guru: I'm going with a couple of tief schwallen this week, starting with Lukas Van Ness. The Packers shipped Preston Smith to Pittsburgh so they could get Van Ness on the field more. What better team to make his starting debut against than a Bears squad that's given up the second most sacks on the season at 38, including nine to the Patriots last week.

With the return of Blake Cashman, Ivan Pace Jr. goes back to a two-down role, making him a matchup based part-time starter for us. This is one of those weeks where the matchup says to play him. No NFL defensive coordinator loses sleep over facing an offense led by Will Levis or Mason Rudolph. The Titans are a run heavy offense that opponents generally play significantly more base personnel against. Pace has proven to be one of the most productive two-down backers in the game. If he gets in on 70% or more of the action, which I think he will, Pace should make a bunch of tackles.  

I'll reach deep into the bag of tricks for this one. The Chargers face off against a high-flying Cincinnati offense that could be at full strength this week. With starting corners Asante Samuel Jr and Kristian Fulton out, rookies Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still are the starters. One of these guys will have to cover Ja‘Marr Chase and the other Tee Higgins. There is a good chance that both rookies will have good numbers. That said, Hart appears to be in the CB1 role which likely means he'll draw Chase. That makes him my tief schwallen of the week.    

Godfather: The Houston Texans have struggled to protect C.J. Stroud this season—among AFC teams, only the Browns have given up more sacks, and the team ranks just outside the top 10 in fantasy points per game allowed to defensive ends. With Houston focusing on Micah Parsons, look for Chauncey Golston of the Cowboys to sneak through and grab a sack in Week 11.

New England Patriots linebacker Jahlani Tavai continues to fly under the radar in many leagues despite a three-down role for the Pats. Tavai has averaged double-digit tackles over the past two weeks, and in Week 11 he draws a Los Angeles Rams team that has been good to opposing linebackers as the offense got healthy.

The Chicago Bears placed safety Jaquan Brisker on injured reserve (Why not weeks ago is a mystery for the ages), which locks in Elijah Hicks as the Bears starting strong safety for at least the next month. The third-year pro has shown some ability to post stats of late, and the rival Packers have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points per game to safeties this season.

John Norton (The Guru) and Gary Davenport (The Godfather of IDP) have over 45 combined years of IDP experience. Follow John on Twitter (still not calling it X, so there) at @JohnPNorton and Gary at @IDPSharks.