Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Lions
David Montgomery is out for the season, vaulting Jahmyr Gibbs from an auto-start RB1 within a committee to a game-changing workhorse profile capable of 30-point games to close the fantasy season. Detroit is up to No.2 in HLO on the season and has finished No.9 or better in each of the past five weeks. As an ancillary point, Craig Reynolds moves into the RB2 role, which is not a confident lineup play like the Gibbs-Montgomery split. Still, Reynolds is a Gibbs injury away from a clarified Week 17 start in fantasy title games. Stash him where available.
Dolphins
Consistently atop the HLO rankings this season, Miami logged another elite finish in Week 15. Only Alvin Kamara has more targets than De'Von Achane this season among running backs, and Miami is also above average in goal-line carries per game. Raheem Mostert has not formed a committee with Achane this season to have standalone value but is still a worthy stash for Week 17 in case Achane sustains an injury.
Cardinals
Arizona has been on the rise since a poor opening month of the season. Losing Emari Demercado for the season elevates James Conner's receiving role to true workhorse status in the final weeks. Also, Trey Benson got dinged up in Week 15 to make his status a question mark. While Arizona is in the bottom half of the NFL for HLO ranking on the season, they are easily in the top 10 over the past three weeks. DeeJay Dallas is the next man up as an interesting stash if Trey Benson is trending out by later in the week.
The Bad
Cowboys
Rico Dowdle has been rising of late, but it has nothing to do with stronger team HLO. Dallas is No.32 in goal-line carries and have arguably been the worst HLO team in the league over the past month. Dowdle has minimal competition from RB2 Ezekiel Elliott, but rarely seeing goal-line opportunities is a fantasy killer for running backs unless an elite receiver, which Dowdle is not.
Browns
The good news from Cleveland is to expect Jerome Ford to have a stronger starting role and market share than Nick Chubb did before Chubb's injury. The bad side is Cleveland has sagged to 28th on the season in overall HLO and have one above-average weekly finish since Week 7. Also, Jameis Winston's in-game benching brings Dorian Thompson-Robinson onto the field and drags down the upside potential for the offense.
The Ugly
Chargers
Death, taxes, and the Chargers being poor in HLO this season. Week 15 marks another week of finishing among the least-optimized backfields. The notable change is Kimani Vidal functioning as the lead back with two-down Gus Edwards more in the ancillary role. However, neither is all that interesting, considering the team is No.31 in targets (Vidal) and 25th in goal-line carries (Edwards) on the season.
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
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