Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Dolphins
De'Von Achane continues to cement his RB1 standing. The biggest development has been Jaylen Wright's lack of progress up the depth chart. Raheem Mostert has sustained the RB2 role in recent weeks, which is notable for fantasy teams holding out hope in the closing weeks for a 2024 impact. Miami is up to No.3 in overall HLO on the season and has three top-five finishes over the past five games.
Steelers
A third straight elite HLO finish has Pittsburgh up to No.7 on the season and a top-10 unit in both goal-line and target opportunities. Najee Harris has ceded routes to Jaylen Warren in recent weeks to cloud the depth chart from high clarity for lineups. Cordarrelle Patterson is an intriguing RB3 if injuries align for a clarified start.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay continues to be the marvel of the HLO world this season, boasting two quality PPR plays and the No.1 overall ranking. They are No.4 in goal-line carries and No.3 in running back targets, plus they have only one below-average week on the season. Bucky Irving and Rachaad White are both RB2 types with RB1 upside, but either would be an elite auto-start if the other is out for the rest of the season.
The Bad
Colts
The Colts have plummeted in recent weeks with three poor HLO games in a row. They are also 30th in targets, which pressurizes any goal-line chances for Jonathan Taylor to get multiple cracks and convert. Anthony Richardson's high average depth of target explains Taylor's lack of receiving upside and siphoning a few point-blank touchdown opportunities. Also, Tyler Goodson would split some of the backfield with Trey Sermon if Taylor misses time in future weeks to cloud the upside of either.
Commanders
The second half of the season has been a trainwreck for Washington's HLO, and losing Austin Ekeler has not helped matters. Washington has dipped to 27th in targets, despite not having a strong WR2 presence in the passing game and Ben Sinnott, the team's Round 2 pick at tight end, being largely invisible as well. Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s big game in Week 13 came primarily in garbage time in the fourth quarter. Rodriguez was playing behind Jeremy McNichols earlier in the game.
The Ugly
Chargers
J.K. Dobbins' first game out of the lineup resulted in just 55% of the running back carries and 30% of routes for Gus Edwards. Kimani Vidal leaped Hassan Haskins for the RB2 role and jumping Edwards in the coming weeks is within the range of outcomes. The macro concern is that the Chargers are dead last in HLO and are 15% lower than No.31 (Rams) for the season. The upside is tepid here outside of a significant role for Vidal and finding lightning in the bottle. Week 14 also offers one of the most difficult aSOS matchups on the board for Edwards if considering him for RB2/flex lineup spots.
The Action Plan
Collect
- Rachaad White
- Sean Tucker
- Raheem Mostert
- Zach Charbonnet
- Cordarrelle Patterson
- Khalil Herbert
- Braelon Allen
Fade
Catch up on all of Chad Parsons' articles here at Footballguys.com.
