Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is the most interesting team down the stretch of the season. They have taken over the No.1 HLO ranking and have been No.4 or better in four of their past five games. Without Chris Godwin, the running backs have taken a larger role in the offense and passing game, plus Bucky Irving is rising by the week. While still a firm committee with Rachaad White, the allure is if either White or (more likely) Irving is the clear starter (likely via injury) in the closing weeks. Also, their schedule for aSOS at running back is arguably the best remaining slate in the NFL. White or Irving could be a league-winning player in the perfect storm.
Lions
It's a higher-end version, but the Lions are similar to the Buccaneers. Detroit continued their strong HLO season with the No.3 finish in Week 12. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are standalone starters, but the upside if one is out is pronounced for the other. Detroit has only had three down weeks on the season below the NFL average and has the second-most goal-line carries for the running back position.
Vikings
Minnesota had the rare high-level HLO week in Week 12, finishing No. 3 and 72% higher than their average week. This was only their second time finishing better than No.12 on the season. Aaron Jones has survived without strong HLO, but any uptick would lead to elite results in the closing weeks. Cam Akers is a clarified RB2 and a vice grip bench stash as well.
The Bad
Colts
The Colts have been trending down over the past month, specifically with two poor weeks in a row. Jonathan Taylor has dominated the backfield's market share but has received little HLO help. Especially with Anthony Richardson under center, the Colts running backs are mired at 30th in targets. Trey Sermon is not an ideal stash running back for the closing weeks.
Ravens
Derrick Henry has proven that he needs little assistance from HLO to produce RB1 results in his career, and this season is no exception. Baltimore has sagged to 20th on the season and has had only three weeks better than 16th. Justice Hill has taken much of the receiving work, and Baltimore is 27th in targets. Fortunately, Henry scores from distance regularly and the team is a respectable 10th in goal-line carries.
The Ugly
Rams
The Rams continue their slide downward in the HLO rankings with another poor Week 12 performance at just 60% of their weekly average. Kyren Williams is the domineering goal-line option, his lone plus as the team is 32nd in running back targets. The last time the Rams were better than 12th in a week was Week 2. This softens the impact potential of Blake Corum in the RB2 role should Williams miss time in the final weeks.
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
Catch up on all of Chad Parsons' articles here at Footballguys.com.
