Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Bengals
Chase Brown has been brewing as a league-winning running back since Zack Moss was injured. Every three or four weeks they log a poor HLO game, but another elite finish this week has Brown as a high-floor and a high-ceiling probability with any game. Khalil Herbert barely saw the field in Week 11, and Brown is getting the workhorse treatment.
Steelers
Pittsburgh had their best HLO finish of the season and easily their best showing since September. Jaylen Warren's return to full health has infused the offense with an optimal two-back system for their offensive play style - through their running backs with sporadic shot plays. Pittsburgh was 54% better than their seasonal average in Week 11. Najee Harris is a fantasy starter, and Jaylen Warren warrants flex consideration.
Ravens
Three or four times a season, Baltimore has an elite HLO week. Week 11 was one of those outlier games. In a neutral or negative game script, Justice Hill is in play for PPR prowess, considering his strong route share in those circumstances. Also, Keaton Mitchell has not impinged on Hill's backfield share through two games since Mitchell's return.
The Bad
Browns
In the running with Jacksonville for the worst HLO team recently is Cleveland. They have finished 24th or worse in their past three games (sandwiched around a bye week). Nick Chubb has lacked goal-line opportunities and has been offered minimal usage in the passing game. Also, Jameis Winston is an aggressive downfield thrower. Good news for Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman. Bad news for checkdowns and goal-line opportunities. Nick Chubb needs to be on fantasy benches until he (and Cleveland) shows something different than the Jameis Winston sample size thus far.
Saints
The rare down HLO week for the Saints and Alvin Kamara occurred in Week 11. They were No.10 or better every game since Week 3. Taysom Hill had one of the best all-around games in fantasy history with his passing, rushing, and receiving involvement, which also affected Kamara's output. Kamara still survived with 13.9 PPR points without strong receiving involvement or goal-line looks, but he has been an elite option (and situation) for nearly two months in a row leading up to Week 11.
The Ugly
Jaguars
Travis Etienne Jr. had a workhorse role in Week 11, but no Tank Bigsby was in the lineup. However, Mac Jones has torpedoed the offense, and even with a blowout loss to Detroit, there was no garbage time production. Jacksonville has been the worst HLO team in the NFL over the past month. Etienne was a lineup bust this week and it will be even more cloudy with Bigsby back. The lone hope is things change when Trevor Lawrence returns (or if he returns on a team dead in the water).
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
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