Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Bengals
Chase Brown is a recent riser and massive potential star for the stretch run of the fantasy season. Zack Moss is out with injury, and Brown has seized the lead role to the extent that no other running back saw a carry in Week 10. Khalil Herbert may provide solid RB2 work, but he just arrived with the team and had just two snaps this week. Cincinnati also just had their best HLO finish of the season in Week 10. Brown is a big recent winner at the position with Cincinnati up to No.5 in HLO on the season.
Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco has league-winning potential. Kareem Hunt has held down the fort with massive volume and strong HLO. The Chiefs have been in the top 10 each of the past four weeks. If Pacheco returns to his workhorse role, he offers more upside than the (no offense) plodding Kareem Hunt in recent weeks. The Chiefs are producing the most goal-line running back carries in the NFL and are a respectable 14th in targets.
Cardinals
While still 28th in HLO on the season, Arizona has turned a corner of late. Their run game is mashing opponents, and their four worst weekly HLO finishes were all in Week 5 or earlier in the season. The Cardinals were close to the Chargers (32nd) a few weeks ago but are now in a completely different tier, including two top-five weekly finishes and three others in the 'average' zone of late. James Conner is the feature name, but Trey Benson has steadily flashed more recently, including running more routes. If Conner misses time in the season's closing weeks, there is a greater chance of a feature role for Benson than earlier in the year.
The Bad
Eagles
The tush-push near the goal line is making its way back in the Eagles' offense, and targets for running backs have dropped in recent weeks. Saquon Barkley is still a fantasy stud, but the situation is not working for him anymore. Philadelphia has drifted to 26th in overall HLO on the season, including 30th in targets and 22nd or worse each of the past three weeks. The Eagles have been higher than 16th only twice this season. While Barkley is a stud and will survive even poor HLO (Giants were 30th last season), Kenneth Gainwell or Will Shipley would not be so fortunate if pushed to the lead role.
Vikings
Aaron Jones had an injury scare (ribs) in Week 10 but returned to the game. Jones has been a consistent threat to miss game with his vibrant running style over the years and has markedly stayed healthy through 10 weeks in 2024. The Vikings have not had a weekly finish better than 12th since Week 1 and have plummeted to 25th overall for the season. The good news is Cam Akers has taken control of the RB2 role and is affordable to stash for the end-of-season playoff push.
The Ugly
Jaguars
Like the Vikings, the Jaguars have fallen in the HLO rankings of late. What makes their situation ugly is the health (or lack thereof) of their quarterback Trevor Lawrence. This leaves their offense in the hands of Mac Jones, which did not go well in Week 10. Also, Travis Etienne Jr. has been a tough-to-trust lineup option all season and returned to the starting role by market share in Week 10. This reverts Tank Bigsby to fantasy benches outside of another injury to Etienne. The other complexity is how many games will Etienne take to earn starting lineup faith for critical fantasy matchups down the stretch.
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
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