Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Saints
Alvin Kamara enjoyed an elite week yet again in Week 9 with the No.3 HLO finish, with Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller out of the lineup. Kamara has enjoyed easily the No.1 HLO run since Week 3 where New Orleans has been top 10 every week including four straight weeks within the top five. Chris Olave's concussion will put even more emphasis on Kamara's offensive role with Rashid Shaheed already out of the lineup. The Saints are crumbling around Kamara, but his glorious PPR value is firmly intact. Jamaal Williams is an interesting add or stash as, even if New Orleans' HLO perch shifts with Kamara out in a future week, Williams will have a strong market share of the backfield in such an absence.
Dolphins
The split between the Tua Tagovailoa-led Miami HLO offense and other quarterbacks has been pronounced with Miami in the No.1 HLO discussion for the Tagavailoa starts and NFL average at best in the non-Tagovailoa starts. De'Von Achane saw a wide receiver-like route share in Week 9, and Miami was the No.1 HLO team in the NFL. Raheem Mostert is currently a touchdown-or-bust fantasy proposition with Achane healthy but would be an auto-start should Achane miss time. Jaylen Wright has flashed in his first half-season of sparse involvement but has not been utilized much in the passing game. Expect Mostert to rise in that area is pushed to the RB1 role.
The Bad
Jets
The Davante Adams-Garrett Wilson duo has softened the Jets' HLO standing over the past two weeks with their worst two weekly finishes of the season (No.20 and No.22). The Jets have slipped to No.8 overall on the season. While not a white flag on the optimization of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen yet, this is a short-term trend based on a notable player acquisition worth monitoring for another week or two.
Texans
The two best HLO weeks for Houston came when all of the wide receivers were healthy. Since then, Nico Collins has missed a string of games with a hamstring injury, and Stefon Diggs has hit the injured reserve. The critical question is if Houston's offensive balance and splash passing plays will return with Collins' health in the next week or two. Joe Mixon has been surviving and thriving on elite market share and brute volume, but more than average HLO help would benefit Mixon from his RB3 overall PPG perch to rival RB1 for the rest of the season.
The Ugly
Browns
Nick Chubb's return has resulted in a minimal run game, a lack of receiving involvement, plus no splash plays for the veteran running back. The Browns' HLO has not helped Chubb either, with No.31 and No.26 finishes over the past two weeks as they tumble to 20th on the season overall. The offensive line has been a season-long question mark, Chubb has yet to produce his splash plays, and the starting quarterback might be in transition (again) to Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the coming weeks with Cleveland looking ahead to 2025. Jerome Ford is the clarified RB2 here but with concerning upside.
Chargers
J.K. Dobbins continues to defy HLO in his quality games this season, producing chunk runs and/or scoring from outside of point-blank range. The Chargers have one HLO week better than 20th and returned to 29th (in a week with two teams on bye) in Week 9 after their rogue No.7 finish in Week 8. Gus Edwards is slated to return soon, which may thwart the clarified RB2 role at present of Kimani Vidal. Justin Herbert is starting to cook with Quentin Johnston back in the lineup, Joshua Palmer healthy, and Ladd McConkey on the rise as well.
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
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