Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Chargers
2024 has been a season of lamenting their horrible HLO ranking weekly in this series' The Ugly section. However, Week 8 was easily their best showing and their first time ever in the top half of the weekly rankings. An easily-season-best seven targets fueled J.K. Dobbins' 16.8 PPR points, plus Dobbins got a rare goal-line carry, just the third of the season for the Chargers' running backs in total. While this is unlikely to continue based on eight weeks of data, the Chargers more than doubled their typical weighted HLO score this week.
Seahawks
One of the big surprises compared to last year's HLO results is Seattle. They have finished No.4 or better four times in the past five weeks and have surged to No.3 overall this season. They are in the top 10 in both goal-line and target categories, and Ken Walker III is an elite RB1 in fantasy terms. Week 8 was awe-inspiring with a 24.5 weighted HLO score, nearly double their impressive seasonal average.
The Bad
Browns
Jameis Winston breathed life into the Cleveland passing game this week, fueling optimism for the wide receivers and tight ends. However, the running backs were the fall position. Nick Chubb is still getting incorporated into the offense, and Jerome Ford - the likely RB2 once he returns - is out of the lineup. The Browns posted just 42% of their weekly average in Week 8 and their fourth poor HLO finish over the past six games. Winston is overtly good news for the passing game, but the early signs are negative for running back HLO.
Vikings
The biggest overall ranking drop of the week belongs to Minnesota. Week 1 was their best HLO finish of the season (6th), and they have not finished in the top 10 since. Aaron Jones has the fortune of being a strong market share option, while possessing big-play potential to offset the HLO concerns, but Ty Chandler loses appeal if Jones were to miss time. Also, Cam Akers' addition clouds Chandler's potential workload upside.
The Ugly
Bills
With the Packers, Cardinals, and Chargers all having respectable Week 8 HLO showings, Buffalo is the latest struggling team yet to have a strong HLO finish. Buffalo has not finished higher than 14th in a week this season, and Amari Cooper has unlocked the passing game to new levels with more space and matchup problems for defenses with Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and Khalil Shakir. The Bills are 29th in running back targets and only 21st in goal-line carries despite having one of the strongest offenses in the NFL overall.
Washington
Washington has tumbled to 28th on the season with three poor weeks in the past five games. At best, they are a middle-of-the-road HLO team, but have tumbled to 25th in targets. Austin Ekeler loses steam as an injury-away RB2 as a result and Jeremy McNichols is a potential roster cut candidates even considering he popped late in games multiple times earlier in the season.
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
Catch up on all of Chad Parsons' articles here at Footballguys.com.
