Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Jets
While the Jets struggled to a loss to the offensively-challenged Broncos in the rain this week, they have been an elite HLO offense through the opening month. Every week, they have finished in the top half of the HLO scores. There is a question about Breece Hall's workload after his Week 4 dud, but this was after three quality games in a row from Hall. Plus, Hall still had 56% of the rushing share in the backfield and more than double the routes of Braelon Allen this week. The sky is not falling for Hall, and both have league-winning potential, considering the strong HLO of the offense.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has morphed into more of a committee in their backfield in recent weeks. Bucky Irving's dynamic cuts and speed are an upgrade over Rachaad White, and the rookie has forced his way into the starting rotation with White. They already have three weekly HLO finishes of No.7 or better in the opening month and are in the top 10 in goal-line and target categories. Irving has strong upside if White were to miss time or if Irving's rise in market share continues.
Panthers
Carolina is the biggest riser of the week, finishing No.1 in Week 4 and nearly doubling their weekly average from the first three games. Chuba Hubbard has been outstanding, with Andy Dalton stabilizing the offense. After a horrific No.31 finish in Week 1, Carolina has been in the top half of the NFL in HLO the past three games. Jonathon Brooks will likely be a factor in the backfield and is looming to make his debut in the coming weeks. Hubbard is tough to keep out of lineups until then with a quality HLO environment and little challenge from Miles Sanders.
Bengals
Cincinnati has three top 12 finishes under their belt already in weekly HLO, including No.6 and No.5 finishes the past two weeks. Chase Brown elevated his backfield market share in Week 4, but Moss still has the edge overall. Monitor Brown in future weeks, but Moss is the only viable fantasy lineup option for now.
The Bad
Giants
Fortunately, Devin Singletary has a strong market share of the backfield as the Giants join only the Chargers with No.25 or worse rankings in both targets and goal-line carries. The Giants have two No.31 weekly finishes in the opening month of the season. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is worth holding merely because he has a vice grip on the RB2 role. Eric Gray is rostered in far too many leagues, considering he is the RB3 on a low HLO offense.
Raiders
The Raiders have yet to finish better than 12th in any week this season and have their two worst finishes over the past two games. Zamir White is rarely involved in the passing game, and Alexander Mattison is not seeing a strong enough market share to have any standalone value even during the bye-week gauntlet.
The Ugly
Chargers
The Chargers have struggled mightily in HLO all season. Their best finish was No.26 in Week 4 and they are in a tier of their own for failing to supply optimal touches to running backs. J.K. Dobbins' rise to the starting role has not resulted in strong fantasy production in recent weeks thanks to zero goal-line carries and being dead-last in targets as well. With his receiving limitations, Gus Edwards would be an even lower upside proposition in the lead role.
Cardinals
Arizona is tied with the Chargers for fewest running back targets and has consistently been in the No.31 overall HLO spot this season. The biggest worry is not with James Conner but rather the outlook for Emari Demercado and Trey Benson should Conner miss time. Demercado would dominate the routes over Benson, but this is on a team No.32 in targets. Benson would need to score a touchdown for a decent fantasy outcome, but they are No.23 in goal-line carries. This has mess written all over it if Conner were out of the lineup.
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
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