Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
The Good
Jets
After a clunky Week 1 on offense overall, the Jets have rebounded with Mike Williams ramping up in route share and Braelon Allen providing an early impact. The Jets have been No.11 or better weekly in HLO and are No.2 in running back targets on the season. Breece Hall has receded into more of a committee than most would have projected in August, but the HLO optimization still has RB1 overall within the range of outcomes for Hall. The bigger takeaway from the first three weeks is the league-changing upside of Braelon Allen if clarified starts present themselves later in the season.
Dolphins
Miami is the No.1 HLO offense and No.1 in running back targets, and they were still elite despite the dumpster fire output in Week 3. Skylar Thompson was battered, prompting Tim Boyle in relief this week, and Tyler Huntley could be the next pinch hitter under center. The running backs have largely been unaffected beyond touchdown opportunities. De'Von Achane is an auto-start option even once Raheem Mostert returns. One notable point from Week 3 was the even split between Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Wright in the RB2/3 roles behind Achane. Wright has been vice-gripped by fantasy teams, but Wilson is available in plenty of leagues.
Broncos
Bo Nix improved in Week 3 with select downfield throws and using his mobility. Denver also had their best HLO finish of the young season with a top-5 result. Sean Payton has a long-standing history of finishing well in elite, including the No.3 finish in 2023 on an underwhelming Denver offense. This is a 'monitor' backfield for later in the season. HLO creates the opportunity for upside should clarity present itself with enough talent. Javonte Williams has been disappointing, making Jaleel McLaughlin an intriguing option if Williams were to miss time. Tyler Badie was mainly in the garbage time portion of the Week 3 win. Do not overreact to Badie as a potential rising player based on the last game. Audric Estime is a wildcard once he returns from injury.
Buccaneers
Rachaad White was working through a groin injury in Week 3 but still ran 60% of the team routes. The major development is Bucky Irving rising by his superior play as a runner with dynamic movement and more upside than White. Tampa Bay has two strong HLO weekly finishes in the opening three games. If Irving rises (or White misses time), this has explosive potential for upside.
The Bad
Browns
Jerome Ford's market share of the backfield has oscillated wildly by week, making his lineup utility tough to foster confidence. Pierre Strong Jr inactive in Week 3 made it a two-back rotation with D'Onta Foreman sparsely playing on passing downs and Ford hitting key market share thresholds of >80% of rushes and >60% of team routes. The bad news is Nick Chubb's return is looming, and Cleveland has trended down each of the past two weeks since a promising Week 1 HLO finish. The Browns have been outside the top-15 the past two games, and David Njoku is another integral returning player for the offense. Ford is a tough-to-trust player on a tough-to-trust offense. If your fantasy team is not starting Ford as the clear best RB2 option, shop Ford in a trade.
Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet is 2-for-2 in converting clarified starts into strong fantasy performances in Ken Walker III's injury absence this season, with at least 17 PPR points in both games. Like Walker, Charbonnet has produced despite team HLO working against him, both weeks being outside the top 15 for overall HLO. Charbonnet's market share has been outstanding with Kenny McIntosh barely playing as the RB2. The spike week potential for Charbonnet is exciting considering his results without having HLO on his side.
The Ugly
Chargers
Week 3 was a positive data point for J.K. Dobbins with his rise to the clear RB1 in rushing and route market share despite the tepid fantasy performance. The HLO situation, however, is a clear hindrance for Dobbins and the Chargers. They are No.32 in HLO by a wide margin, in their own tier, after three weeks. They have yet to accrue a goal-line carry for a running back and are No.32 in targets. Dobbins is consolidating the lead role into a quality market share, but the HLO must improve for Dobbins to be more than an RB2 with upside in a given week.
Cardinals
After an average-ish Week 1 HLO result, Arizona has been arguably the worst HLO team in the NFL over the past two games (rivaling the Chargers). Beyond James Conner as the clear starter, the concern would come if Conner misses time. Trey Benson has been used as a situational early-down option while Emari Demercado has collected the receiving work. This type of split is concerning for the backfield as Arizona is one of the worst running back target teams in the NFL (bad for Demercado) and average-at-best in providing short-range touchdown opportunities (bad for Benson).
The Action Plan
Collect
Fade
Catch up on all of Chad Parsons' articles here at Footballguys.com.
