Despite three straight top-five tight end performances, there is an argument to be made that you should not draft George Kittle. This article will outline that argument. Let's get right into it.

George Kittle and Company in 2023

San Francisco has surrounded Brock Purdy with top-tier playmakers at their respective positions. I have written an article depicting the “too many mouths to feed” notion for Footballguys. I would not necessarily fade Kittle just because he is currently playing alongside Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Brandon Aiyuk. San Francisco added Ricky Pearsall with their first-round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft and Jacob Cowing with a fourth-round selection.

I emphasized currently with the surrounding trade rumors for Aiyuk. Let’s look at the 2023 target distribution with the aforementioned players from the 2023 season.

Notably, Kittle played an entirely healthy season. Week 18 was a rest week in preparation for the playoffs. He played 13 games with all playmakers healthy, one without Aiyuk, and two without Samuel. McCaffrey played in each game with Kittle. Here is the target distribution with those games:

• Games that Aiyuk, Samuel, and McCaffrey played
  • Kittle averaged 4.8 targets
• The game that only Samuel and McCaffrey played
  • Kittle had 9.0 targets
• Games that only Aiyuk and McCaffrey played
  • Kittle averaged 9.0 targets

A prospective small sample might exist when playing without one of the star wide receivers. However, it is valuable to recognize that Kittle’s targets spiked in those three games. Having three data points is enough for a trend. He had 27 targets in three games without Samuel or Aiyuk, or 30% of his total targets on the season.

George Kittle's Weekly Production

Kittle will undeniably have a significant role in the San Francisco offense. This will result in Kittle having a significant end-of-season finish. I am concerned we cannot reliably predict a week-to-week finish absent a trade of Aiyuk. Looking at Kittle’s 2023 PPR scoring:

• 47% of games over 15 points
• 53% of games over 10 points
• 29% of games over 10 points without a touchdown
• 100% of games over 15 points when Aiyuk or Samuel did not play

Our own Dave Kluge noted Kittle's improvement in 2023:

George Kittle quietly bounced back this season.

After trending down for four consecutive years in yards per route run, he hit a league-high 2.30 this year.

It’s the fourth time in his career he’s led all TEs in YPRR and his first time since 2020.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) January 19, 2024

San Francisco has numerous playmakers. In fantasy, we desire volume.

Looking at 2024

Who knows if San Fransico will trade Aiyuk? Let us say it does happen, freeing up the target opportunity. San Fransico added the aforementioned rookie wide receivers from the 2024 NFL Draft. Kittle averaged 13.3 points per game in the 13 games played with Aiyuk and Samuel. How much of a significant effect will Ricky Pearsall have? Will Jacob Cowing claim a role? In three games played without one of Aiyuk or Samuel, Kittle averaged 21.1 points per game. Evidence indicates that Kittle exhibits a greater probability of a fantasy-relevant performance. 

We must remember San Francisco invested a first-round selection into a wide receiver. The fourth-round selection should not be ignored when considering Kittle’s prospects for this season. Kyle Shanahan will scheme and play-call to win the game; in other words, develop a game plan to counter the opponent's defense. Regardless of a trade of Aiyuk, I would have to imagine Pearsall would be involved. If there is a trade, I do not see why he should not receive at least 80 targets. If there is no trade, the rookie could easily receive the targets of Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud III, and Ronnie Bell, who combined accumulated 61 targets in 2023. Let us say 45. 

2024 Fantasy Price

I am out on Kittle’s average draft position (ADP). This is considering the unknown of his current situation. This article was written on June 25th, 2024. I prefer a late-round tight end selection than taking Kittle at his current ADP. I would be intrigued if we were talking about bestball leagues or daily fantasy (DFS). Unfortunately, we cannot predict first-round rookie Pearsall's role if Aiyuk is traded. It's likely that Kittle would be the second target in the offense in this case. It should be noted Kittle only had seven more targets than McCaffrey while playing the same number of games in 2023.

I do not want Kittle at the 61st overall current price. I would rather bet on an asset like David Montgomery or Malik Nabers. Yes, Nabers is an unknown rookie, but I will take his talent profile with an assumed WR1 target share. Back to Kittle.

There remains time before the start of the regular season. The current price of Kittle is not an understanding for the start of the season. Variables affecting the environment could still happen, such as injuries or trades. We can only make educated guesses about an environment.

2024 Realization and Better Options

I wrote this article because I was concerned regarding Kittle’s 2024 week-to-week consistency. His current 61st overall selection exists within an unknown answer. We do not currently know if Aiyuk will be traded. If so, Kittle’s average draft position will rise. Then, with this selection, you hit a home run, as he would likely be the second target in the offense.

If there is no trade, we understand Kittle has the potential to finish as a top-5 tight end. Let us not forget Kittles' (73rd) 2023 fantasy finish was behind Montgomery’s (70th), and Montgomery missed three games. For reference, rookie Zay Flowers, who was in a low-passing-volume offense, finished ahead of Kittle, too. I would also select rookie Nabers over Kittle.

George Kittle's Recent Stats

George Kittle 2024 Projections

Should George Kittle be drafted?

I want consistency at the tight end position, but I am not confident Kittle will provide the desired week-to-week consistency. As noted previously, I understand the lure of Kittle in Best Ball. Additionally, Kittle could be a nice option in DFS when we know environmental variables.

But I am out on Kittle in redraft at his current price. This selection has risk: specifically, the current San Francisco offense environment. Tight end is a volatile position, and I do not mind streaming tight end week-to-week if I have to. More attractive options are being drafted after Kittle, like the aforementioned Nabers (ADP-67), who has more expected upside.

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