Despite three straight top-five tight end performances, there is an argument to be made that you should not draft George Kittle. This article will outline that argument. Let's get right into it.
George Kittle and Company in 2023
San Francisco has surrounded Brock Purdy with top-tier playmakers at their respective positions. I have written an article depicting the “too many mouths to feed” notion for Footballguys. I would not necessarily fade Kittle just because he is currently playing alongside Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Brandon Aiyuk. San Francisco added Ricky Pearsall with their first-round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft and Jacob Cowing with a fourth-round selection.
I emphasized currently with the surrounding trade rumors for Aiyuk. Let’s look at the 2023 target distribution with the aforementioned players from the 2023 season.
Notably, Kittle played an entirely healthy season. Week 18 was a rest week in preparation for the playoffs. He played 13 games with all playmakers healthy, one without Aiyuk, and two without Samuel. McCaffrey played in each game with Kittle. Here is the target distribution with those games:
- Games that Aiyuk, Samuel, and McCaffrey played
- Kittle averaged 4.8 targets
- The game that only Samuel and McCaffrey played
- Kittle had 9.0 targets
- Games that only Aiyuk and McCaffrey played
- Kittle averaged 9.0 targets
A prospective small sample might exist when playing without one of the star wide receivers. However, it is valuable to recognize that Kittle’s targets spiked in those three games. Having three data points is enough for a trend. He had 27 targets in three games without Samuel or Aiyuk, or 30% of his total targets on the season.
George Kittle's Weekly Production
Kittle will undeniably have a significant role in the San Francisco offense. This will result in Kittle having a significant end-of-season finish. I am concerned we cannot reliably predict a week-to-week finish absent a trade of Aiyuk. Looking at Kittle’s 2023 PPR scoring:
- 47% of games over 15 points
- 53% of games over 10 points
- 29% of games over 10 points without a touchdown
- 100% of games over 15 points when Aiyuk or Samuel did not play
Our own Dave Kluge noted Kittle's improvement in 2023:
George Kittle quietly bounced back this season.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) January 19, 2024
After trending down for four consecutive years in yards per route run, he hit a league-high 2.30 this year.
It’s the fourth time in his career he’s led all TEs in YPRR and his first time since 2020.
San Francisco has numerous playmakers. In fantasy, we desire volume.