Garrett Wilson is one of this year's hottest targets, with an ADP (WR8, 12th Overall) that solidly puts him in first-round consideration in most drafts. The excitement is understandable, as he's been a good-not-great fantasy asset in his first two seasons despite abysmal quarterbacking. Now, he should be on the receiving end of Aaron Rodgers' pinpoint passes.
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In Aaron Rodgers, We Trust
One of the biggest storylines of the 2023 preseason was Aaron Rodgers' arrival in New York after a Hall of Fame career in Green Bay. Putting the mercurial MVP in the Big Apple, with hopes of returning the Jets to national prominence after being an also-ran to the dynastic Patriots for two decades, was a story everyone could sink their teeth into. HBO chose the Jets for their annual Hard Knocks series, and we got a firsthand look at Rodgers' preparation and the palpable excitement he and Wilson had to work together.
Unfortunately, Rodgers tore his Achilles at the start of the first game, ending his year before it began. And that led to a disappointing Jets season:
- 7-10 Record (3rd place, AFC East)
- 268 Points (29th in the NFL)
- 2,919 Passing Yards (30th)
- 11 Passing Touchdowns (32nd)
- 32 Passing First Downs (32nd)
- 4.4 Net Yards per Attempt (32nd)
Zach Wilson (11 starts), Trevor Siemian (3 starts), and Tim Boyle (2 starts) left much to be desired.
The great news is that Rodgers' rehabilitation has gone well, and he should be fully ready for training camp, the preseason, and, most importantly, the start of the 2024 regular season.
Aaron Rodgers' No. 1 Receivers (2008-2022)
| Player | Year | Tgts | Recs | Yds | TDs | FPTs | WRRank | %Tgts | %Recs | %Yds | %TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 2008 | 140 | 80 | 1,291 | 9 | 263.1 | 7 | 26.1% | 23.5% | 32.0% | 32.1% |
| Donald Driver | 2009 | 112 | 70 | 1,061 | 6 | 212.1 | 19 | 20.7% | 20.0% | 23.9% | 20.0% |
| Greg Jennings | 2010 | 123 | 76 | 1,265 | 12 | 274.5 | 5 | 25.9% | 24.4% | 32.3% | 42.9% |
| Jordy Nelson | 2011 | 95 | 68 | 1,263 | 15 | 284.3 | 4 | 18.9% | 19.8% | 27.2% | 33.3% |
| James Jones | 2012 | 98 | 64 | 784 | 14 | 226.4 | 17 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 18.3% | 35.9% |
| Jordy Nelson | 2013 | 126 | 85 | 1,314 | 8 | 264.4 | 13 | 43.4% | 44.0% | 51.8% | 47.1% |
| Jordy Nelson | 2014 | 151 | 98 | 1,519 | 13 | 327.9 | 3 | 29.0% | 28.7% | 34.7% | 34.2% |
| James Jones | 2015 | 129 | 79 | 829 | 6 | 197.9 | 28 | 22.6% | 22.8% | 21.7% | 19.4% |
| Jordy Nelson | 2016 | 152 | 97 | 1,257 | 14 | 306.7 | 2 | 24.9% | 24.2% | 28.4% | 35.0% |
| Davante Adams | 2017 | 118 | 74 | 885 | 10 | 222.5 | 13 | 49.6% | 48.1% | 52.8% | 62.5% |
| Davante Adams | 2018 | 167 | 111 | 1,386 | 13 | 327.6 | 4 | 28.0% | 29.8% | 31.2% | 52.0% |
| Davante Adams | 2019 | 129 | 83 | 997 | 5 | 212.7 | 23 | 22.7% | 23.5% | 24.9% | 19.2% |
| Davante Adams | 2020 | 147 | 115 | 1,374 | 18 | 360.4 | 1 | 27.9% | 30.9% | 32.0% | 37.5% |
| Davante Adams | 2021 | 167 | 123 | 1,553 | 11 | 344.3 | 2 | 31.5% | 33.6% | 37.7% | 29.7% |
| Allen Lazard | 2022 | 95 | 60 | 788 | 6 | 174.8 | 34 | 17.5% | 17.1% | 21.3% | 23.1% |
| Average | 130 | 86 | 1,171 | 11 | 266.6 | 8 | 25.6% | 25.8% | 29.9% | 33.8% |
As you can see, it's generally great to be Aaron Rodgers' top target—his No. 1 has been a top-10 fantasy receiver in eight of 15 seasons and has finished as a top-20 option in all but three years. In terms of workload distribution, the top option averaged:
- 25.6% of Team Targets
- 25.8% of Team Receptions
- 29.9% of Team Receiving Yards
- 33.8% of Team Receiving Touchdowns
In Garrett Wilson, We Trust
Wilson was a fantasy disappointment last year, finishing as the No. 25 fantasy receiver after being drafted as the 9th receiver. But, in the context of how abysmal the Jets offense was, Wilson more than held his own.
Garrett Wilson Stats (2022-2023)
| Year | Tgts | Recs | Yds | TDs | FPTs | WRRank | %Tgts | %Recs | %Yds | %TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 147 | 83 | 1,103 | 4 | 217.3 | 21 | 23.4% | 23.2% | 27.3% | 26.7% |
| 2023 | 168 | 95 | 1,042 | 3 | 217.2 | 25 | 28.0% | 26.7% | 30.9% | 27.3% |
| Average | 158 | 89 | 1,073 | 3.5 | 217.3 | 23 | 25.7% | 25.0% | 28.9% | 26.9% |
You'll note that Wilson was every bit the Jets' alpha receiver; it's just that he was hamstrung by one of the league's worst passing offenses.
What Should We Expect from the No. 8 Fantasy Receiver?
With Wilson being drafted 8th at the position, it would be helpful to know what kind of statistics that ADP implies, so here are the WR8s for 2021-2023 (the three seasons with 17 regular-season games):
| Player | Team | Year | Tgts | Recs | Yds | TDs | FPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | 2021 | 169 | 107 | 1,161 | 8 | 276.4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 2022 | 117 | 75 | 1,356 | 8 | 261.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 2023 | 150 | 108 | 1,243 | 7 | 280.9 |
| Average | 145 | 97 | 1,253 | 8 | 268.0 |
Not Much Needs to Change for Wilson
The great news is that Garrett Wilsondoesn't need to evolve his game much in his third season to vault into fantasy stardom. He's already the Jets' clear No. 1 and has played like it since the start of his rookie season. As this overlay shows, he's already most of the way there:
| Cohort | Tgts | Recs | Yds | TDs | FPTs | WRRank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodgers WR1s | Average | 130 | 86 | 1,171 | 10.7 | 266.6 | 8 |
| Garrett Wilson | Average | 158 | 89 | 1,073 | 3.5 | 217.3 | 23 |
| WR8 (2021-2023) | Average | 145 | 97 | 1,253 | 7.7 | 268.0 | 8 |
You'll note that the main difference between Wilson's last two seasons (WR23 and WR25, respectively) and a top-8 finish comes down to touchdown production. He's only scored seven receiving touchdowns in two seasons because the Jets quarterbacks have somehow only thrown 26 touchdowns combined in 34 regular-season games.
That's where Rodgers' arrival makes all the difference. He'll help Wilson in two ways:
- Wilson's catch rate will increase as Rodgers has much better accuracy than the Jets' 2022-2023 quarterbacks
- Rodgers has one of the best touchdown rates in NFL history, meaning Wilson's touchdown rate will increase commensurately
3x the Touchdown Rate
- Aaron Rodgers' career touchdown rate = 6.2%
- 2022-2023 Jets QBs touchdown rate = 2.1%
If we hold Garrett Wilson's touchdown share (26.9% of total receiving touchdowns) constant and adjust for Rodger's average 31.6 passing touchdowns per season, we get:
- Aaron Rodgers' average passing TDs = 31.6
- Garrett Wilson's career touchdown share = 26.9%
- Implied Wilson receiving touchdowns = 8.5
If Wilson matches his career averages but adds 8.5 touchdowns instead of the 3.5 he averaged in his first two seasons, we get:
- 89 receptions
- 1,073 receiving yards
- 8.5 receiving touchdowns
- 247.3 fantasy points
But Wait, There's (Probably) More
What's more exciting is that Rodgers should benefit Wilson beyond an increased touchdown output.
- More receptions -- Rodgers completes 65% of his passes versus the Jets QBs at 58%. If Wilson's target share remains constant, that would mean a 100+ reception season.
- More yards -- Wilson ranked outside the top 50 last year in ADoT, yards per route run, and a host of other advanced metrics. Rodgers' decision-making, efficiency, and accuracy would vault Wilson into the upper echelon of those metrics, adding 100-200 receiving yards on the same target volume.
Garrett Wilson's Stats
| Season | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Targets | Receptions | ReYards | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 147 | 83 | 1103 | 4 | 1 |
| 2023 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 95 | 1042 | 3 | 2 |
Garrett Wilson 2024 Projections
| Projector | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Receptions | ReYards | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.1 | 3.2 | 18 | 0.0 | 94.8 | 1228 | 8.8 | 0.3 |
| Justin Freeman | 16.0 | 4.2 | 20 | 0.2 | 100.2 | 1318 | 7.1 | 0.0 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 4.0 | 20 | 0.0 | 96.0 | 1210 | 9.0 | 0.5 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 3.0 | 16 | 0.0 | 95.1 | 1055 | 6.9 | 1.0 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 2.0 | 15 | 0.0 | 91.0 | 1275 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
Final Thoughts
Garrett Wilson was supposed to break out last season, and fantasy managers aggressively targeted him as a top-10 fantasy asset; he went early in the second round, on average. Aaron Rodgers' early-season Achilles injury derailed the Jets' offense, and Wilson struggled, particularly as a touchdown producer—he finished as the WR25. But we have to view that as Wilson's floor (if healthy), and few receivers are available who have both a top-25 floor and a top-5 ceiling.
As we've shown, Wilson is already the Jets' alpha receiver, producing at a level commensurate with elite receivers. It's just that he's been hampered by a bottom-3 passing attack, thanks to the likes of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle.
Assuming Rodgers is healthy this year (and you shouldn't target Wilson if you have doubts about Rodgers), there's every reason to target Wilson at his current ADP as a first-round pick. His touchdown total should jump into the 8-to-10 range, which will be enough for a top-10 finish. But if he has the kind of rapport with Rodgers we've seen from Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams, then Wilson could also exceed 100+ receptions and 1,300 yards, making him a top-5 receiver.