Week 17 offers a fun nine-game slate filled with high-upside plays and plenty of strategic decisions, especially as injuries, weather, and playoff implications create a unique landscape. With some key offenses missing stars and others fighting to stay in the playoff race, finding value across all positions will be essential to building winning lineups. Teams like the Colts, Raiders, and Buccaneers stand out for their favorable matchups.

Quarterback and running back options are particularly intriguing this week. Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield headline a top-heavy quarterback pool, with Daniels offering a mix of value and upside in a prime matchup against the Falcons. At running back, depth reigns supreme, with nearly a dozen backs capable of leading the slate in scoring. Players like Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, and Breece Hall bring strong floors and tournament-winning ceilings, while value plays such as Tyjae Spears and Raheem Blackshear add flexibility to build balanced lineups.

At wide receiver and tight end, there are exciting opportunities to take advantage of emerging stars and value plays. Brian Thomas Jr. leads the charge among rookie breakouts, offering WR1 usage at a discount, while veterans like Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson anchor premium builds. Tight end strategies revolve around Brock Bowers, who is poised to break rookie records, but mid-priced options like T.J. Hockenson and Dalton Kincaid provide strong alternatives. With defenses like the Raiders and Miami offering paths to capitalize on turnover-prone offenses, this slate is packed with opportunities to differentiate your lineups and secure big wins.

Updated Slate Overview

Before diving into specific player picks on a position-by-position basis, let's start with a big-picture view of the Week 17 FanDuel Main Slate. I focus on three big-picture items each week:

1. Overall implied team totals and spreads.
2. How these implied team totals compare to each team's season-to-date average and which teams are projected to score more than normal.
3. Percent-rostered projections at the team level within the context of implied team totals.

Implied Team Totals

In the visualization below, you'll see each team's implied team total and how much they are favored by. Lines connecting opponents help illustrate the matchups. The higher the line, the higher the game total. The length of the lines also visualizes the size of the spread between the two teams. 

Adding the lines connecting each team's implied team totals is a great way to visualize overall game totals. The higher the line, the more points are expected in the game. On this nine-game slate, there is a clear separation between the top four games and the rest. Let's quickly highlight those top four matchups in order of total points:

• Packers-Vikings: The saying "good offense beats good defense" will be put to the test in this clash between two excellent teams that are strong on both sides of the ball. Deciding whether we think this game turns into a shootout is one of the first big strategical decisions we have to make. 

• Panthers-Buccaneers: To my eye, this looks like the most likely shootout on the slate. Both teams have defensive injuries that opposing offenses have exploited. Carolina is equally vulnerable on the ground and through the air, so deciding whether to target Bucky Irving and the rushing attack or Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and the passing game more heavily will be a key decision point. On the other side, Tampa Bay's biggest weakness is against the pass. Can we trust Bryce Young to stay hot? More pressure will be on Young and the passing attack with Chuba Hubbard sidelined.

• Falcons-Commanders: Michael Penix Jr. performed much better than the numbers indicated in his first NFL start last week. Atlanta didn't need much from him in their blowout win, thanks to a dominant defensive performance. However, much more will be required in Week 17 against Jayden Daniels and the high-scoring Commanders.

• Jets-Bills: We know the Bills' offense will deliver, but the question is whether the Jets can score enough to unlock the ceilings of Josh Allen, James Cook, and other top Buffalo stars.

Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages provide valuable context for identifying teams projected to exceed their usual performance. The table below compares each team's implied total ("Total") to their season average points per game ("PPG") and highlights the expected scoring boost for Week 17 ("Week 17 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

One of the most notable aspects of this smaller-than-usual main slate is the limited number of teams expected to outscore their season-to-date averages. Additionally, the few teams with positive scoring boosts only have marginal increases, making this a challenging slate for high-scoring fantasy options.

The teams that stand out are:

1. Colts: Jonathan Taylor was the fantasy star of Week 16, and he has another chance to be impactful in Week 17 with a prime matchup against the Giants. The Colts are the only team on the slate with an implied team total above 22 and a positive Week 17 scoring boost.

2. Raiders: Las Vegas stands out primarily because it signals a better-than-average opportunity for star rookie tight end Brock Bowers, who has been stellar this season and could be poised for another big performance.

Percent Rostered by Team

The table below ranks each team on the main slate by their implied team total. Generally, focusing on players from high-scoring teams is a strong strategy, as it often correlates with higher upside. However, high implied team totals should also correlate with high percent-rostered projections. It is when the percent-rostered projections by team deviate from the typical expectations that is especially interesting and may potentially indicate an edge we can exploit in tournaments. That's the purpose of the table below.

Quarterback

The table below shows the current Top 10 quarterbacks based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:

Pickings are slim this week at quarterback. If Anthony Richardson is out, there will be only three quarterbacks priced above $8,000: Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Baker Mayfield. These three are also the best tournament options at the position. Allen and Daniels offer huge rushing upside and have been putting up massive passing stats over the past month. Mayfield has sneaky rushing potential, but we're primarily playing him for the chance he throws for 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns. With so few viable options, expect each of these "Big 3" quarterbacks to be highly popular on this slate.

My favorite of the bunch—and the quarterback who will feature on most of my tournament rosters—is Jayden Daniels. The Falcons defense gives up the sixth-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing quarterbacks this season (+1.8 PPG). Daniels has been on an absolute heater and is brimming with confidence after dissecting the Eagles, the best defense in the NFL, for five touchdowns last week. Daniels is underpriced and should be above $9K. With tight pricing on this slate, the $600 discount from Allen to Daniels makes a real difference in roster flexibility.

After back-to-back monster games in which he averaged over 400 total yards and combined for 2.5 passing and 2.65 rushing touchdowns per game, Allen cooled off in freezing temperatures against the Patriots last week. The Jets offense is good enough to push Allen, and that's when he performs best in fantasy. From a narrative perspective, there's a sense the Bills would relish the opportunity to run up the score on their division rival.

The Panthers mostly kept Baker Mayfield in check in their Week 13 matchup, but Mayfield has been red hot since. Over the last three weeks, Mayfield has averaged 295.3 passing yards and 3.0 touchdowns per game. He's a strong option for tournaments if you believe Carolina won't repeat their earlier defensive success.

If you're looking to save money at quarterback, two young players stand out. Bryce Young looks like a completely different quarterback since his early-season benching. His confidence and poise grow with each game, culminating in one of the best performances of his career last week in an upset win over the Cardinals. Over the last two weeks, Young has rushed for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns, adding another layer to his fantasy upside. The Buccaneers defense is a pass funnel, forcing teams to attack through the air. Tampa Bay gives up the second-most PPG above expectation to opposing quarterbacks (+3.9). Michael Penix Jr.. is in a strong spot against the Commanders in a game with shootout potential. In his debut, Penix flashed playmaking ability and downfield aggression before conservative play-calling took over late. He has affordable, high-upside stacking options in Drake London and Darnell Mooney, making him a great value for tournaments.

Running Back

The table below shows the current Top 12 running backs based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:

While putting the finishing touches on this article Saturday morning, news broke that Chuba Hubbard was being placed on injured reserve. He was expected to be one of the more popular plays on the slate despite a difficult matchup against the Buccaneers and was already a full fade for me. Raheem Blackshear becomes an interesting low-cost option, but I'm concerned he will split snaps. Additionally, the best way to attack the Buccaneers is through the air, not on the ground.

De'Von Achane is projected to be especially popular this week, but at his projected levels of ownership, I like rolling the dice on fading him. Most of Achane's damage comes through the air (though he did break off a long touchdown run in the final minutes of Week 16), and with only half a point per reception on FanDuel, his ceiling is somewhat limited.

It's easier to fade Achane because of the depth of quality options at running back on the main slate, which is by far the deepest position this week. Nearly a dozen backs have the potential to outscore him. If multi-entering, I recommend getting exposure to all of the top backs listed above (minus Hubbard). If playing only a few lineups, there are a handful of backs I like more than the others.

Bucky Irving should continue to see his share of the Buccaneers backfield opportunities increase. Rachaad White had a costly fumble last week, and Irving has had another week to recover from the back injury that sidelined him in Week 14. He carried the team in the second half of the Week 13 matchup against the Panthers, logging a career-high 28 touches for 185 total yards. While the Panthers defense has improved at limiting touchdowns to opposing backs, it remains vulnerable on the ground. With Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard out, Irving could also see additional looks in the passing game.

Breece Hall is flying under the radar this week, which makes him one of my favorite tournament plays. He offers as much upside as the more popular backs in his price range. While the Jets are big underdogs, Hall's involvement as a pass catcher makes him more game-script-proof than most backs. The Bills are the third-best matchup for opposing running backs, allowing 3.7 PPG above average in half-PPR scoring.

Jonathan Taylor is "good chalk" this week in a strong matchup against a depleted Giants defense that is simply playing out the string. While Anthony Richardson is listed as a game-time decision, my gut says he won't play. This benefits Taylor's fantasy outlook. While Richardson's running threat does help open up lanes, he's also a touchdown vulture. Plus, Taylor's opportunities as a pass catcher have been virtually non-existent since Richardson returned to the lineup five weeks ago. If Joe Flacco is the quarterback, Taylor should see three to six targets in addition to his strong rushing workload.

For the second straight week, I want to highlight Tyjae Spears as an intriguing option. While Tony Pollard has shown toughness playing through a painful ankle injury, Spears has out-snapped and outproduced him in back-to-back weeks. Spears looks explosive catching passes out of the backfield and has scored four touchdowns over the past two games. The Jaguars-Titans matchup has the widest range of outcomes on the slate—it could be an ugly, low-scoring affair with both offenses struggling, or it could turn into a shootout with 60 combined points. Either way, Spears offers strong upside.

As always, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, and Aaron Jones are solid options this week. While none of their matchups stand out as particularly favorable, talented workhorse backs in strong offenses are always worth consideration.

Wide Receiver

The table below shows the current Top 12 wide receivers based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:

For the fourth time in a little over a decade, an LSU rookie wide receiver is taking the NFL by storm. Following in the footsteps of Odell Beckham Jr., Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr. is breaking out in a big way down the stretch of his rookie campaign. Over his last four games, he has averaged 7.8 receptions, 99.8 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns on 12.3 targets per game. Typically, a player this talented with such high usage levels is priced near $9,000. While Thomas' price continues to rise, he remains underpriced by at least $1,000. He will be popular, but his high target share provides a strong floor. He is unlikely to sink your lineup, but fading him could leave you behind if he explodes yet again.

I like stacking Thomas with either Calvin Ridley or Chig Okonkwo from the Titans. As noted earlier, this game has a wide range of outcomes and real shootout potential. If Thomas has a big game, it increases the likelihood that one of these Titans pass catchers also exceeds expectations. While Ridley left the Jaguars on good terms, he should still be motivated to have a big game against his former team.

I want exposure to the Tampa Bay offense in nearly every tournament lineup this week. That may come through Bucky Irving, one of my favorite running back plays, or through passing game stacks and one-offs featuring Jalen McMillan or Mike Evans. Evans is my favorite pay-up option on the slate at wide receiver. Over his last three games, he has averaged 6.5 receptions, 103.8 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns. For cap savings, Jalen McMillan stands out as the best sub-$6K option on the slate. As the second option in the potent Buccaneers passing attack, he should see a boost in targets with Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton out. McMillan has scored four touchdowns over his last three games and has seen at least seven targets in each. His combination of a high floor and sneaky ceiling makes him one of my favorite plays overall this week.

While much of the focus will understandably be on the WR1s in Atlanta and Minnesota, this could be a week where the WR2s—Darnell Mooney and Jordan Addison—shine. Addison has been seeing nearly as many targets as Jefferson but comes at a $2,000 discount. With Jefferson's recent streak of big games, expect him to draw extra attention from the Packers defense. Mooney's deep speed is a great fit with Michael Penix Jr..'s big arm. He looked poised for a breakout game last week, with 70 receiving yards early, but the Falcons jumped out to a big lead and took the air out of the ball.

Tight End

The table below shows the current Top 10 tight ends based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:

With Cade Otton out last week, backup tight end Payne Durham saw seven targets. He should see a similar workload this week as the third option in the Tampa Bay passing offense. Durham will likely be overlooked, and his bargain price tag provides a pathway to paying up for top-tier running backs like Saquon Barkley.

At the other end of the salary spectrum, Brock Bowers is on the verge of setting all-time records for rookie receiving yards by a tight end and receptions by a rookie. He's in line to break both marks this week in a prime matchup against the Saints. While Bowers is expensive and likely to be popular, he's in a tier of his own at the position this week. After hauling in 11 receptions last week, he should once again be peppered with targets.

T.J. Hockenson is one of several solid options in the mid-$5K range. Sprinkling in players like Hockenson, Dalton Kincaid, Chig Okonkwo, and others makes sense. If one of them matches or exceeds Bowers' production, the $2,000 in cap savings can help create scoring separation at other positions.

Defense

The table below shows the current Top 8 defenses based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:

With the Raiders defense missing star pass rusher Maxx Crosby, the unit remains vastly underpriced against an undermanned Saints offense that will be without Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, and others. It's rare to find a defense priced in the low-$3K range when facing an opponent with an implied team total in the teens.

At the higher end, Miami stands out as a strong option. The Browns appear to have thrown in the towel on the season, and sloppy winter weather in Cleveland increases the likelihood of turnovers. Dorian Thompson-Robinson could easily commit multiple turnovers for the second straight week, adding to Miami's appeal.