When preparing to write about FanDuel tournaments each week, part of my process involves explicitly writing out some of the critical unknown factors that could most impact the slate. I want to start off this week’s article by sharing some of the questions I have this week and how the potential answers to those questions are shaping my roster-building strategy.
How does the David Montgomery injury impact the Lions' offense?
David Montgomery has averaged 15.9 opportunities per game (carries plus targets). Meanwhile, Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 16.8 opportunities per game this season. Does Montgomery's absence simply mean that the Lions will continue giving 32.7 total opportunities per game to the running back position, with Gibbs now taking on 27 of those opportunities and the rest going to backup running backs? Or could this signal a more fundamental shift in how the Lions' offense operates?
For instance, what if the Lions' running backsonly see 25 opportunities per game, leaving an additional 7–8 opportunities for other positions? Does this mean a shift to a more pass-heavy offense with more attempts by Jared Goff? This could mean more work for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Both would project as solid options even if the Montgomery injury did not impact their usage. However, they would project to be outstanding plays if we think they each see a couple of extra targets due to the injury.
Most players will likely approach this slate assuming the first scenario—that Gibbs will absorb most of Montgomery’s workload. Don’t be surprised if Gibbs is nearly 50% owned in many tournaments this weekend while the passing game goes largely overlooked. Gibbs is a fine play and should see at least 20 touches. However, if his bump in workload is smaller than expected and the Lions simply transition to a less RB-centric offensive approach, stacking Goff with one or more of his top targets could be a tournament-winning contrarian strategy.
What’s going on with Tyreek Hill?
Tyreek Hill appeared on the injury report on Friday as questionable due to a wrist injury and a personal matter. It is hard to tell where his head it at. There seems to be a legitimate chance he doesn’t play. If that happens, Malik Washington becomes one of the best plays on the slate at just $4,700. Washington would likely step into the WR1 role, with Jaylen Waddle also listed as doubtful.
One of the negatives of writing this article on Saturday morning is the lack of clarity on certain situations and the need to make some “best guesses” or to write in terms of contingencies. With regard to Washington, I view him as a must-play if Hill is out. If Hill is active, my spidey-senses still tell me something is not right here and I would not be surprised if he has a reduced role. That may be the best-case scenario for us in tournaments. If we get news Hill is playing, there will not be a spotlight on Washington and we could get him at very favorable percent rostered numbers.
How healthy is Tony Pollard?
Tony Pollard temporarily exited the Week 15 game with an ankle injury. When he returned, he was out-snapped and out-produced by Tyjae Spears for the rest of the game. Spears went on to finish as the highest-scoring running back of Week 15. At just $5,900, Spears is a smash play if Pollard is out or severely limited.
Unfortunately, Pollard’s status remains unclear. He hasn’t practiced this week, but he’s missed several practices in the past month and still played through his lingering ankle issue. This is a situation to monitor closely, paying attention to updates from Adam Schefter and Titans beat writers like Jim Wyatt regarding Pollard’s expected role against the Colts.
How does offensive production break down in Philadelphia?
A straightforward way to view the Eagles’ offense this week is through three equally likely scenarios:
Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley split the touchdown production, resulting in neither being a standout point-per-dollar fantasy play.
Hurts dominates the scoring, notching short rushing touchdowns and delivering solid production through the air, making him a 25+ point scorer.
Barkley has a slate-breaking performance with a couple of long touchdowns or a red zone score that shifts the focus away from Hurts.
Each scenario feels equally plausible, which makes it challenging to confidently choose between Hurts and Barkley. However, the 1-in-3 chance of a big fantasy day for either player makes both outstanding GPP options.
How much does the weather impact things?
The weather could play a significant role in several games this week. The game I’m most concerned about is Minnesota at Seattle. While temperatures are expected to be in the high 40s with minimal wind, there’s a chance for heavy rain during the game. Light rain typically doesn’t affect offenses much, but a downpour can make deep passing and basic ball-handling challenging.
Elsewhere, cold temperatures could be a factor:
Bills vs. Patriots: Forecast calls for 10°F at kickoff.
Bears vs. Lions: Feels-like temperature of 22°F at kickoff, marking only the second outdoor game for the Lions this season.
Weather considerations should influence lineup decisions, especially for games with the potential for heavy rain or freezing temperatures.
Do any teams start focusing on the playoffs early?
If the Chiefs win on Saturday, their odds of securing the AFC's No. 1 seed climb to nearly 90%. Meanwhile, the Bills already have a playoff spot locked up and are strong favorites to land the No. 2 seed—especially if Baltimore wins as a home favorite on Sunday.
This could lead to some strategic decisions:
Could we see a deeper-than-usual running back rotation if Buffalo builds an early lead?
Will there be fewer designed runs for Josh Allen to preserve his health?
Is there a chance Allen gets pulled early in the fourth quarter if the Bills are up by three scores?
These factors create potential uncertainty in projecting offensive workloads, especially for playoff-bound teams with little to gain from risking their key players late in games.
On the other end of the spectrum, I have some concerns about teams who were recently knocked out of the playoff chase (or virtually eliminated) like the 49ers. This is an unusual position for the team to be in and it could impact their motivation down the stretch.
Updated Slate Overview
Before diving into specific player picks on a position-by-position basis, let's start out with a big-picture view of the Week 16 FanDuel Main Slate. I focus on three big-picture items each week:
- Overall implied team totals and spreads.
- How these implied team totals compare to each team's season-to-date average and which teams are projected to score more than normal.
- Percent-rostered projections at the team level within the context of implied team totals.
Implied Team Totals
In the visualization below, you'll see each team's implied team total along with how much they are favored by. Lines connecting opponents help illustrate the matchups. The higher the line, the higher the game total. The length of the lines also visualizes the size of the spread between the two teams.
We don’t have any obvious shootout spots this week. There isn’t a single underdog with an implied total higher than 22 points. However, there are two games on my radar with at least an outside chance of turning into shootouts.
The first is the night game between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is a pass-funnel defense, which could lead to a faster-paced game if the Cowboys throw the ball more often. If they have any success against a Buccaneers secondary that has been dealing with injuries, we know that Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and the Tampa Bay passing game are capable of putting up big points.
Similarly, the Lions defense has been decimated by injuries, creating a potential opportunity for the Bears’ struggling offense to get going. If they do, Detroit has the offensive firepower to quickly turn the game into a shootout. It’s unlikely we see anything along the lines of last week’s Bills-Lions 90-point total, but either of these games could realistically hit 60 points.
Best Matchups
Season-to-date averages provide valuable context for identifying teams projected to exceed their usual performance. The table below compares each team's implied total ("Total") to their season average points per game ("PPG") and highlights the expected scoring boost for Week 15 ("Week 15 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:
This graphic is an updated version of one featured in the Wednesday DFS First Look article, and it’s always interesting to note the differences. Atlanta’s implied team total has risen another full point over the last few days, with their scoring boost increasing from 18% to a slate-high 23%. Whether this shift is due to their favorable matchup against the Giants or heightened expectations for the passing game with rookie Michael Penix Jr.. now under center is up for debate. Regardless, this is a prime spot for Penix to make his NFL debut, as he faces a defense that surrendered five touchdowns to Lamar Jackson last week.
The Falcons are now tied with the Cardinals for the highest implied team total among the teams seeing significant Week 16 boosts. We’ll discuss James Conner below, but this uptick in implied scoring is a major reason he stands out as a core play this week.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars remain a top-five matchup for opposing wide receivers and tight ends, making Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers strong options to capitalize on Jacksonville's Week 16 scoring boost of 21%.
Percent Rostered by Team
The table below ranks each team on the main slate by their implied team total. Generally, focusing on players from high-scoring teams is a strong strategy, as it often correlates with higher upside. However, high implied team totals should also correlate with high percent-rostered projections. It is when the percent-rostered projections by team deviate from the typical expectations that is especially interesting and may potentially indicate an edge we can exploit in tournaments. That's the purpose of the table below.
Two teams stand out in this week’s graphic:
The first is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose 26.2 implied team total is the fourth highest on the slate. Rachaad White has had another week to get healthy and faces an outstanding matchup against the Cowboys defense. Meanwhile, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan have both been hot at wide receiver and make for strong GPP options, as they are going somewhat overlooked this week.
The second team to target is the Philadelphia Eagles. Two numbers stand out in particular: the 3% rostered projection at quarterback for Jalen Hurts and the 12% rostered projection for Saquon Barkley. Hurts isn’t even particularly expensive this week, and as noted earlier in the question section, there’s a good chance he has a big game if he can cash in on short touchdowns. Similarly, 12% for Barkley is too low given his potential upside. When looking at the combined ownership of just 15% at quarterback and running back for the Eagles, my inclination is to be at least double the field on both Hurts and Barkley.
Quarterback
The table below shows the current Top 10 quarterbacks based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
Josh Allen offers an unmatched combination of floor and ceiling. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in every game dating back to Week 6 and is coming off back-to-back explosion games of 40+ points, showcasing his elite upside. While he’s expensive and the lackluster Patriots offense may not push him in the same way that the Rams and Lions did in recent weeks, it’s still hard to pass on Allen. His consistency and upside make him an easy click.
Jalen Hurts presents a fantastic opportunity this week. He has scored at least 28 FanDuel points in four of his last eight games and has scored at least one rushing touchdown in eight of his last nine games, with multiple rushing touchdowns in three of those. A quarterback with multi-rushing touchdown upside at a bargain price and relatively low ownership is a rare find. Even in a middling matchup, Hurts is a slam-dunk play. You can stack him with A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith but you don't have to. The real path to him hitting is multiple rushing touchdowns for the fourth time in 10 weeks.
Michael Penix Jr.. may not offer much as a runner despite his impressive athletic testing numbers, but he’s an excellent deep-ball passer. The Giants were burned on multiple deep shots last week against the Ravens, and this could be the perfect spot for the Falcons’ passing offense to get back on track if Penix lives up to expectations.
As noted earlier, there’s a real chance that David Montgomery’s injury leads the Lions to adopt a more pass-heavy approach down the stretch. If that happens, Jared Goff is significantly underpriced for a quarterback leading an offense with a 27.5 implied team total. Lions passing stacks are my favorite way to attack Week 16 FanDuel GPPs. I see tremendous upside and great value in Goff paired with one or two of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, or Sam LaPorta.
Running Back
The table below shows the current Top 12 running backs based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
While I like the contrarian approach of targeting the Lions’ passing game while most are focused on Jahmyr Gibbs, there’s no denying that Gibbs is far and away the best point-per-dollar skill position play on the slate. When a player projects for over 3.0 points per dollar, while the next closest is below 2.4 points per dollar, the gap becomes impossible to ignore. Add to that the Bears’ defense allowing 3.0 fantasy points per game above average to opposing running backs (fourth most in the NFL), and everything lines up perfectly for Gibbs to have a big day.
James Conner is once again in a great spot. On the season, the Panthers’ defense allows 6.8 points per game above average to opposing running backs. While they’ve allowed fewer touchdowns in the second half of the season, this is still a fantastic matchup. With top backups Trey Benson and Emari Demercado both out, Conner should have an even larger share of backfield touches than usual.
The last time Saquon Barkley faced Washington, he racked up 198 total yards and two touchdowns. While Barkley has gone three straight games without scoring over 25 fantasy points, we know his upside is as high as any running back on the slate. Additionally, the gap between his salary and the next tier of backs (like Chase Brown) has shrunk, making it easier to justify paying up for Barkley.
Bijan Robinson has logged at least 22 carries in three straight games. If the switch to Michael Penix Jr.. helps the Falcons’ offense get back on track, Robinson could be one of the biggest beneficiaries, with increased opportunities in the red zone.
The Lions’ defense has been decimated by injuries, losing three more key players last week, including elite run-stopping defensive tackle Alim McNeill. While the matchup doesn’t look great on paper when considering full-season stats, this is no longer the same Detroit defense we saw earlier in the year. This creates a sneaky good spot for D’Andre Swift to get back on track.
As noted in the question section, it’s hard to know what to expect from Tony Pollard this week. It wouldn’t be surprising if he’s active and gets his normal workload. It also wouldn’t be surprising if he’s inactive and Tyjae Spears gets the start. Additionally, there’s a possibility Pollard is active but limited to a part-time role, similar to last week when Spears led the team in running back snaps and finished as the highest-scoring fantasy back of the week. While uncertainty can be daunting, taking calculated risks on players like Spears could pay off in a big way.
Wide Receiver
The table below shows the current Top 12 wide receivers based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
DJ Moore ($6,300) is a strong play this week against a decimated Lions defense. When these teams met three weeks ago, Moore was targeted 16 times, catching 8 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. Over his last five games, Moore has averaged 7.2 catches for 72 yards per game and has surpassed 60 total yards in every outing, thanks to his involvement as a receiver and occasional runner. The Lions, now missing 15 defensive players due to injuries, have allowed 80+ yards to the opposing WR1 in four of their last five games, making this an excellent spot for Moore to deliver another big performance.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is poised for another big game in what could be a high-scoring matchup against Chicago. With the Lions’ defense decimated by injuries and David Montgomery sidelined, Detroit may lean more on the passing game, funneling additional opportunities to St. Brown. He saw a season-high 18 targets last week, turning them into 14 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown. St. Brown has topped 70 receiving yards in three of his last five games and should continue to be the focal point of Detroit’s offense.
Brian Thomas Jr.. is quickly emerging as a star in Jacksonville, providing one of the few bright spots in an otherwise difficult season for the franchise. With nothing to play for, the Jaguars are likely to keep feeding their rookie standout, who has delivered four straight games with at least 76 receiving yards. Over his last three games, Brian Thomas Jr.. has averaged 7.3 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown on 12.0 targets per game, solidifying himself as the centerpiece of the offense down the stretch.
Tight End
The table below shows the current Top 10 tight ends based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
Trey McBride has been a target magnet, with four straight games of at least 10 targets and a whopping 51 targets over that span. He’s posting massive reception and yardage numbers, and the only thing holding him back from being the top fantasy tight end is his lack of touchdowns. However, Kyler Murray seems intent on ending McBride’s season-long touchdown drought, making him a strong play with added late-season narrative appeal.
As noted earlier, there’s uncertainty surrounding Tyreek Hill this week, and with Jaylen Waddle also out, Jonnu Smith could effectively serve as the WR1 in Miami’s pass-heavy offense. Flying under the radar with just 4% projected ownership, Jonnu Smith brings serious upside in this role and could be a game-changer.
Defense
The table below shows the current Top 8 defenses based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
The top five point-per-dollar defenses in Week 16 share a common thread: they’re all facing backup quarterbacks. While these defenses have their own challenges, such as injuries and backups starting in key positions, the priority this time of year is exploiting shaky quarterback play. From this perspective, a few teams stand out. The Raiders face Mac Jones, the Falcons take on Drew Lock, and the Bengals match up against Dorian Thompson-Robinson, making all three defenses strong value options for the week.