FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 11

There’s a strong undercurrent in Week 11 steering roster construction in FanDuel tournaments in a specific direction. The key question is whether to swim with the current, building lineups similar to the majority of the field but trying to execute more effectively, or to take a contrarian approach and simply build our lineups in a different manner. Before diving into specific player recommendations, let’s explore the central theme of this slate that will shape roster construction for most participants.

Week 11 Undercurrent: Top Running Backs vs. Top Wide Receivers

Understanding this slate hinges on recognizing the stark disparity in baseline projections and expectations between top running backs and top wide receivers. Every Friday morning, I write an Underdog Player Props article, and analyzing FanDuel’s main slate through the lens of player props often reveals valuable insights. Here’s a look at wide receiver yardage props for this week, where the outlook is bleak:

• No wide receiver on this slate has a receiving yardage prop above 79.5 yards.
• Only three wide receivers are projected above 72 yards, and all are priced at $9,000 or higher.

In contrast, five running backs on the main slate boast total yardage props exceeding 100 yards:

• Christian McCaffrey: 119.5
• Alvin Kamara: 115.5
• Kyren Williams: 104.5
• De'Von Achane: 101.5
• Breece Hall: 100.5

These are unusually high total yardage props, signaling a “high tide” for running back projections in the 2024 season.

Implications for Roster Construction

There’s a clear advantage to prioritizing top running backs over wide receivers in Week 11. However, this edge isn’t a secret—our opponents are seeing the same trends. Projections for the top wide receivers show them as sub-10% rostered, creating the undercurrent I mentioned earlier. The slate is pulling us toward roster builds featuring one or two of the elite running backs listed above, along with a moderately priced running back in the flex spot. This approach leaves little salary cap for wide receivers, which will drive up ownership for receivers priced at $7,500 or below.

To further highlight the theme of this slate, consider this comparison: the Bengals play on Sunday night, and Ja'Marr Chase ($9,600) is $2,800 more expensive than Chase Brown. Here are their Week 11 yardage props:

It is obvious which of the two players the field will gravitate toward based upon pricing and baseline expectations.

The challenge for Week 11 tournaments lies in determining whether to follow the field’s expected approach with minor strategic improvements or to pivot more aggressively in the way we are constructing our lineups. We will come back to this idea throughout this week's FanDuel GPP Guide.

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