Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 7: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are mired in a rebuilding process that began after the 2021 season. They started with a relatively bare cupboard and an upside-down salary cap, so the process has been slow. It did not help that the offensive roster was full of holes when they started, as well. That side of the ball has received much of the attention while, for various reasons, the defensive additions have provided marginal improvement thus far. Looking over their defensive roster, this could be the year it starts coming together but a lot of things will have to go right for that to happen. This team might have better odds of picking first than winning a Super Bowl in 2024, but there are some positives.

The 2023 Seahawks were not very good defensively. The passing game was bottom third in yards, interceptions, and points allowed. Their 47 sacks were tied for 11th, but the run defense made up for that by giving up the second-most rushing yards and points on the ground.

The statistics were not pretty, but they resulted in less personnel turnover than might have been expected after such a performance. This likely had more to do with limited resources than a lack of desire to do more. Seattle added several bargain-priced veterans and used four draft picks, including their first round, on the defensive side. The new players alone will not be enough to get this team on a path to the playoffs. For the Seahawks to right the ship this year, they will need better play from their returning members as well.

Defensive Linemen

Coaches and general managers often say building a great defense starts up front. From that perspective, the Seahawks have laid what looks to be a solid foundation. Last year's free agent class brought them Dre'Mont Jones and the return of Jarran Reed. They followed up by trading for Leonard Williams, who joined the lineup in week nine. The selection of Byron Murphy II in round one this year allows the organization to cross defensive tackle off their list of needs.

IDP managers are not likely to find any diamonds among this group, but there could be some gold. Reed works at nose tackle in what is predominantly a 3-4-based scheme. The eight-year veteran was a second-round pick of the Seahawks in 2016 and spent his first five years as a 4-3 tackle under the previous regime. Reed's tours of Kansas City in 2021 and Green Bay in 2022 yielded modest production, so he went back to where it all started in the hope of re-energizing his career. It appears to have worked.

Reed's most statistically productive season came in 2018 when he lit up the box scores for 36 solo stops, 15 assists, 10.5 sacks, and a pair of turnovers. Those numbers made him the fantasy game's number-three tackle. The closest Reed has ever come to repeating that production was last season when he finished 27-27-7  with 2 turnovers and finished 14th. He has seven or more sacks in three of his eight seasons but two or fewer in each of the other five. On the other hand, all three of those seven sack seasons were with Seattle. Reed was a good DT2 for us last year. He is not a lock to repeat but is worth the risk as a late-round DT2 target.  

The Seahawks were in the hunt for a playoff spot when they made the trade for Leonard Williams last season. A 9-8 record left them on the outside, but the trade was intended to be more than just a win-now move. Shortly after his arrival, Williams signed a new contract to keep him with the team through the 2026 season.

The sixth overall pick of the Jets in 2015, Williams has made an on-field impact from the start. He has 40 sacks over his nine NFL seasons, with a career-best of 11.5 in 2020. That was his first full season with the Giants, and he also recorded 56 combined tackles and a fumble recovery to finish third among interior linemen. His second full season with the Giants saw Williams put up the best tackle numbers of his career, going 34-48-6.5 with three turnovers to land fourth at the position.

Williams has at least 5 sacks and/or 50+ total tackles in five of his nine NFL seasons, including three of the last four. He just turned 30 years old and shows no sign of slowing down. He is not an elite target but can be counted on as a priority DT2 with top-ten potential.

Dre'Mont Jones has not yet turned in one of those breakout seasons with double-digit sacks, but it could happen at any time. Despite missing a few games in 2020 and 2022, Jones has gotten to the quarterback 26 times over his five seasons. He is still looking for a 50-tackle campaign but has come close with 47 in 13 games in 2022 and 48 last year.  Unless you are in a league with more than twelve teams or deep rosters, Jones is probably not worthy of consideration right now. If he starts hot and produces early in the campaign, don't hesitate to pick him up.

Byron Murphy II packs 297 pounds of muscle and energy into a compact frame barely over six feet tall. He is quick and explosive off the ball and a low center of gravity helps in the battle for leverage. Average physical traits and mediocre production might keep Murphy from becoming an IDP star but his tenacity and ability to dig and hold ground against double teams at the point of attack will help those around him to excel.  

The Seahawks made no significant changes at the edge position. This year's reinforcements will instead come in the form of a healthy Nwosu Uchenna. The first four years of his career were spent with the Chargers, where Uchenna's role was mostly that of a nickel pass rush specialist.  Considering the limited role that saw him play less than 350 snaps in three of those seasons, his average of 21-12-5, with a turnover and 2 pass breakups, was pretty solid.

The move to Seattle in 2022 showed everyone what Uchenna can do with a starter's workload. He turned 952 opportunities into 42 tackles, 25 assists, 9.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 2 recoveries, and 4 swatted passes for his first top-15 finish. Uchenna was on a slightly lower trajectory last year when his season ended with a torn pectoral in week seven. The injury has healed and he is expected to be full-go at the start of training camp. The question for IDP managers now becomes, is Uchenna a top-20 edge defender as his 2022 production suggests, or will those numbers prove to be a career outlier? All we know for certain is the Seahawks are counting heavily on him.

A wise man once said that IF is the biggest word in the English language. If Uchenna is what they expect, and if Boye Mafe takes the next step in his third season, Seattle might have something at the edge positions. Mafe was the team's second-round pick in 2022. As a rookie, he was the third man in the rotation with Uchenna and Darrell Taylor. Mafe continued to share time at the beginning of last year but when Uchenna was lost, he stepped into the lead role and ran with it.

Mafe logged at least 70% of the snaps in ten of twelve games to finish the year, turning 808 plays into a stat line of 35-16-9 with 3 turnovers and 6 batted passes. That production ranked him inside the top 25 and made Mafe a decent second starter or quality depth at the edge position. As we approach the 2024 season, there is a chance we will see less rotation and a lot more of Uchenna and Mafe, making both of them potential targets as strong depth with upside.

Taylor's 2023 was rather disappointing. The 2021 second-round pick had a solid rookie campaign, going 27-10-6 with a forced fumble. The expectation of a bigger role in 2022 never materialized as the team continued to use a mass rotation. Still, Taylor made the best of his opportunities, recording nine sacks and five turnovers on less than half of the playing time. Strangely, when Uchenna went down last year, Taylor's playing time somehow went down as well. He logged less than 40% of the snaps in seven of the last eight games. If they put him on the field enough, Taylor could hold good fantasy value. After last year, however, it appears he may not get that opportunity until he escapes Seattle.

Derick Hall was a disappointment as the Seahawks' second-round selection last season. He opened the campaign, seeing about 35% of the action over the first four games, but it was downhill from there. Hall played fewer than 20 snaps in nine of the team's final thirteen games and his snaps counts fell to single digits in several outings after the team claimed Frank Clark off the scrap heap ahead of week eight. Hall will get another shot at earning a significant role in year two, but he will have to show improvement to make that happen.     

• Edge Uchenna Nwosu –Target as priority depth with low Edge2 upside
• Edge Boye Mafe – Target as depth with a high floor and high Edge2 potential
• Edge Darrell Taylor – Injury sleeper  
• Edge Derick Hall – No impact expected
• DT Leonard Williams – Priority DT2
• DT Jarran Reed – Target as depth with DT2 upside
• DT Dre'Mont Jones – Injury sleeper with modest upside
• DT Byron Murphy II – No grand statistical expectation
• DT Jonathan Hankins – No fantasy impact

 Linebackers

The Seahawks' approach at linebacker is a real headscratcher. They went from a future Hall of Famer and a young, former first-round pick to a marginal career backup and a wildly inconsistent veteran free agent. Granted, money was likely a factor here, but was Bobby Wagner really too expensive at age 33? And did they not understand that Jordyn Brooks was less than a year removed from a major knee injury? That's all water under the bridge at this point, or maybe water over the bridge would be more accurate.

Free agency brought Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson to Seattle, where they are in line to be the starters. Baker spent his first six seasons with Miami, where his production was erratic at best, especially in recent years. He has never been a tackling machine, with a career-best of 78 solo stops and 49 assists in 2019. Baker has potential as a playmaker, though. He can get after the passer as a blitzer, with a personal best of 7 sacks in 2020 and a career mark of 21, and he will take the ball away a couple of times every year as well.

Seattle's linebackers, on the other hand, have been a gold mine of tackle production for as long as can be remembered. This situation will be a litmus test to tell us if Baker is just a mediocre player or if he was simply a victim of the scheme in Miami.

What we do know is that Baker is fast and athletic. He is strong in coverage, has good range versus the run, and can be a physical presence. We also know there is no competition for him at a paper-thin position. Baker will take over the lead role vacated after Wagner's one-year contract expired and he signed with the Commanders. I have strong doubts that Baker will give us numbers like the 97-87-3.5 we got from Wagner last season. On the other hand, any linebacker who is good enough to be a six-year starter in the NFL should put up strong numbers in that situation.

A lot of IDP managers are picking up Dodson with the expectation that he will take over the other starting linebacker job. The Seattle coaching staff might enter training camp with the same expectations. That might be the plan but I am not sold for a couple of reasons. For starters, I do not believe Dodson is an NFL-caliber starter. The Buffalo coaching staff would agree. When Matt Milano went down last season, they turned first to Dorian Williams. When he struggled, they went to Dodson for several games before giving Baylon Spencer a shot and eventually dragging A.J. Klein off the couch for the playoffs. The Bills then made zero effort to retain Dodson.

Many managers will look at the roster and think, what other options do they have? The answer is, not many but Jon Rhattigan and Patrick O'Connell have been working extensively with the starters recently while Dodson and Baker are nursing minor injuries. The team used a fourth-round pick on Tyrice Knight. Rhattigan and O'Connell were on the team's practice squad last year so they have time in the scheme. That said, it's Knight that I am keeping an eye on.

He did not get much love from the scouting community ahead of the draft. NFL.com Analyst Lance Zierlein tagged him as an average backup or special teams contributor. He has average speed, is below average in man coverage, and has a tendency to freelance outside the scheme at times. On the other hand, Knight was a three-year starter for UTEP where he racked up a whopping 337 combined stops, 7.5 sacks, 15 passes defended, 7 turnovers, and a score in 37 games as a starter. This is a situation we need to watch closely once camp opens.      

• ILB Jerome Baker – He's not Wagner but should put up at least LB2 numbers
• ILB Tyrel Dodson – Great situation but can he hold the job?
• ILB Tyrice Knight – Deep sleeper with an impressive statistical resume'  
• ILB Jon Rhattigan – Deep sleeper but worth watching
• ILB Patrick O'Connell – Darkhorse candidate
• ILB Drake Thomas – No impact expected but who knows

Defensive Backs

Youth and inexperience were likely a big contributor to the Seahawks' struggles versus the pass last year. The starting corners were 2022 fifth-round pick Tariq Woolen and rookie first-rounder Devon Witherspoon. Of the six corners to see at least 100 snaps last year, only Michael Jackson Jackson and Artie Burns had more than two NFL seasons under their belt. They were the team's fourth and fifth corners respectively. There are no new faces in the mix so the team will be counting on another year of experience to right the ship.

From the fantasy perspective, there is a lot of value to be found in the Seahawks secondary. The rookie corner rule was in play last year with Witherspoon. He was thrown at often and while giving up a lot of completions and yards, turned those targets into 57 tackles, 22 assists, 16 passes defended, and a pair of takeaways. Witherspoon showed versatility as well, getting to the quarterback three times on the blitz.

All that added up to a sixth-place finish among corners with an average of 11.6 points per game. If the rookie corner rule holds, we might see a little lower tackle numbers along with an increase in the big play department. Corner is the fantasy game's most fickle position with drastic turnover at the top from year to year being the norm. Even with that consideration, Witherspoon seems like a fairly good bet to repeat at least CB2 production.

For the most part, Woolen has followed the rookie corner rule as well. The targets and tackle numbers fell in his second season but, having recorded six interceptions as a rookie, he was not able to improve on the big play numbers. He is a good player and a solid starter for the Seahawks but there is no reason to think Woolen will become an IDP option.

The Seahawks went into last season with the plan to use a lot of three-safety looks. With Jamal Adams unable to stay healthy, 2021 fourth-round pick Tre Brown picked up a good deal of playing time in the team's nickel base defense. He could be pushed by Michael Jackson or one of the team's young safeties for the role.

At this time last summer, some IDP managers were writing off Julian Love because he was “backing up” Adams. I kept telling people that Love was too good not to be on the field a lot. The Seattle coaching staff agreed. Love was the third safety when Adams was healthy but in four of those eight games, Love saw at least 70% of the playing time. At the end of the season, Love had played 937 of a possible 1178 snaps. At 85-37-0 with 7 takeaways and 10 passes defended, he was the fantasy games' sixth-ranked safety.

As a result of Love's play and production, the team has now moved on from Adams, anointing Love as the starting strong safety. If he ranked sixth on less than 80% of the action, what is he capable of when playing every snap behind a questionable group of linebackers? Don't be shocked if Love is the fantasy game's top safety in 2024.

Quandre Diggs spent four and a half years as the Seahawks' free safety. He will not see year five. The organization brought in Rayshawn Jenkins for that role with free agent K'Von Wallace signed to possibly compete for the job or be the third safety. Jenkins gave us good production during his three-year stint as a starter for the Jaguars, including a finish of second at the position in 2022. If he is stuck in the center field role as Diggs was for much of his time there, Jenkins could struggle to provide more than marginal value. I could see a situation where Wallace is the deep safety with Jenkins in the third safety role. There is a chance Jenkins will be an IDP factor but until we can get a better idea of the plan, there is nothing to get excited about.     

• SS Julian Love – Top ten safety with elite tier potential
• FS Rayshawn Jenkins – Sleeper with plenty of risk until we get a glimpse at the plan
• FS K'Von Wallace – Marginal impact expected
• SS Jerrick Reed – No impact
• CB Tariq Woolen – Marginal fantasy value
• CB Devon Witherspoon – CB1 upside with a low CB2 floor
• CB Michael Jackson – No impact
• CB Coby Bryant – No impact
• CB Tre Brown – Nickel defender with limited upside
• CB Nehemiah Pritchett – No impact
• CB DJ James – No impact

That does it for part seven of this year's pre-season offering. Next up, we close out the west with the Rams.

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