Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

Rookie safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson appears to have a bright future. The question is, how soon does it start? We got our first look at him in week ten when Jalen Thompson was out with a sore ankle. In his two starts, Taylor-Demerson is 11-4 with 3 passes defended. That includes a team-leading 6-3 against the Seahawks in week twelve. Most importantly, he was as solid on the field as in the box scores.

Thompson is considered questionable again this week. It is generally assumed that he will return to the starting lineup once the sore ankle allows it, but that is not written in stone. The rookie has been impressive. So much so that if you picked him up last week, it might be a good idea to sit tight and see what happens when Thompson returns. By the way, Arizona plays Seattle again in week 14 when the second bye-magedon hits.   

Jesse Luketa showed up with a solid 3-0-1 against Seattle. There could be something here in the future so he is worth keeping an eye on. For now, he is working as the third man and played 22 snaps in week twelve.

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

With Roquan Smith nursing a sore hamstring, it was supposed to be Trenton Simpson's opportunity to shine. He did so early in the game, recording three solo stops right out of the shoot. Simpson then vanished from the stat sheet for the rest of the game. When all the numbers were in, he was 3-0 on 30 snaps while Malik Harrison stole the spotlight. Harrison totaled 7-6 on 72% of the action, while Chris Board went 2-2 while poaching 37 snaps from Simpson. With no guarantee that Smith will be available for week 13, we will want to follow up on this situation as the week progresses.

Kyle Hamilton was unstoppable and matchup-proof early in the season. Indeed, the only team that could stop him was the Ravens. With their struggles versus the pass, the coaching staff looked at all their options. What they seem to have settled on is moving Hamilton to the deep safety alignment more often. We can pass off some of his poor production (2-1) versus Los Angeles because the Chargers are the game's worst matchup for safeties. On the other hand, Ar'Darius Washington managed 4 solo stops against them. This could be a problem for Hamilton managers on the eve of the playoffs.

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

Many IDP managers have turned to streaming starters at the corner position. If you are among them, see if Jaycee Horn is available this week. He is coming off back-to-back games with six solo stops and 12 fantasy points and has a strong matchup this week against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the eighth most points to the corner position. If this stream works out, it might be a good idea to keep him for the rest of the ride as well. The Eagles are a middle-of-the-road matchup in week 14, but the Panthers get Dallas in week 15 and a rematch with Tampa Bay in week 17. Dallas has allowed the second most points to corners on the season.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears

The numbers say that Minnesota is a mediocre matchup for safeties. Don't tell that to Kevin Byard III or Jonathan Owens, who were the top-scoring Chicago defenders at 18 and 16 points in week twelve. Owens will likely go back to the bench when Elijah Hicks returns from his ankle injury, but Byard should be in our lineups the rest of the way. He has nine or more points in nine of the last ten games, with remaining games against Detroit twice, San Francisco, a rematch with the Vikings, who he was just 11-2 against, and the Seahawks in week 17. San Francisco and Seattle are the top two matchups for safeties.

Owens may not be an NFL starter, but the guy makes plays when he's on the field. He could get another start or two before Hicks is healthy.

Jaylen Johnson didn't make a box score splash but did an outstanding job while working against Justin Jefferson most of the day. Johnson held Jefferson to 2 catches for 37 yards, his lowest production of the season. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

There are a couple of fringe guys I like against the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh only allows about half a sack per game to the defensive tackle position. However, at a rate of nearly 14 combined stops per game, they are still a solid matchup. That bodes well for B.J. Hill's chances of a solid week.

The other guy I like here is Cam Taylor-Britt. Mike Tomlin is a master at exploiting an opponent's weakness. So far this year, Taylor-Britt has been just that for Cincinnati. Look for Russell Wilson to pick on him often, including some deep shots. Call it a gut feeling, but I expect a busy day for Taylor-Britt.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett owned the highlight reel with three sacks and a forced fumble against the Steelers on Thursday. Ogbo Okoronkwo was not much of a factor at 1-2, but it is important to note that he had a 70% play share. Even though there have been consistency issues, Garrett is a must-start for anyone who has him. With a week 13 game against a Denver team that's given up the third-fewest points to edge defenders, Okoronkwo should be out of consideration for this one. That said, Cleveland has the Steelers, Chiefs, and Dolphins between weeks 14 and 17. All of those teams are solid or better match-ups for edge players.

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys

Caelen Carson posted ten points in each of his three starts on the season. With injuries to the Cowboys starters, it seemed he would be in line for another opportunity. Not only did the coaching staff go in a different direction, but Carson was a healthy scratch. Instead, the team went with second-year undrafted free agent Josh Butler. Washington took the bait and picked on him throughout the game, leading to a huge stat line of 10-2-1 with 3 passes defended. The Cowboys' remaining schedule presents an excellent string of matchups for the corner position, including the Giants, Bengals, Panthers, and Buccaneers, All of which are top-ten in points allowed to corner. The problem is that Da'Ron Bland returned last week, and Trevon Diggs could be back for week 13.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Denver Broncos

Riley Moss left Sunday's game with an MCL injury. Coach Payton had a good update on Monday. The injury is not serious, and the team will see how this week goes. With Denver on bye in week 14, Moss would have three weeks to heal if he sits. Levi Wallace would replace Moss but bump Ja'Quan McMillan up a little for this week.

Drew Sanders was activated from the PUP list and will begin practicing. With Denver on bye next week, his first game action will likely come in week 15.

Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions

Malcolm Rodriguez did not disappoint in his expanded role. He was 7-1 on 89% of the snaps and may have played a few more had he not been banged up late in the game. No one is talking about an injury so he's probably fine, but keep an eye on him ahead of Thursday's games.  

The Lions added David Long Jr. last week. He had a minor role, playing 13 snaps despite the short time with the team. It is unclear if Long presents a threat to Rodriguez. We'll have to see if Long's playing time increases with a full week of practice but unless Rodriguez is banged up, I'm not expecting to see much of Long.

Detroit should get rookie corner Terrion Arnold back after he missed week twelve, but they could be without Carlton Davis. Davis left Sunday's game with a knee injury and was not practicing early in the week. Kendal Vildor got the start for Arnold against the Colts and would likely slide over to cover for Davis if the veteran is out.

Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers

San Francisco's offensive struggles led to slim pickings for Packers defenders, especially the three safeties. San Francisco ran 14 times for 39 yards and Brandon Allen completed 17 passes. Javon Bullard still managed to tie Quay Walker for the team tackle lead at 6-1. There should be a lot more opportunity this week when they face off with Miami.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Houston Texans

The biggest news from Texans' camp this week is the loss of Jalen Pitre for several games due to a partially torn pectoral.  Eric Murray picked up the extra snaps last week, but the Texans plan to move oft-injured Jimmie Ward into the role going forward. Ward had a great game versus Tennessee with six solo stops, three tackles for loss, and an interception return for a score. Last week's numbers were impressive, but don't get excited. Ward can't stay healthy and has rarely been productive, even when he is. Then there is this week's matchup with a toothless Jacksonville offense…

So much for the possibility of a Devin White resurrection. After logging 50 snaps in week eleven, he went 2-0 on 17 plays against Tennessee while Henry To'oto'o was in the game for 94%.

Guru's IDP Notes: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans are a strong matchup for corners. The problem is that we don't know which Jacksonville corners will be healthy. When we last saw them in week eleven, Tyson Campbell and Montaric Brown were knocked out of the game with shoulder injuries. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Kansas City Chiefs

Nick Bolton disappoints again. At 1-3-.5 it is the second time in four games that he's scored fewer than five fantasy points. Next on the schedule is a matchup with the Raiders. Las Vegas has been a middle-of-the-road matchup on most weeks. That was with between-the-tackles bruiser Alexander Mattison in the backfield. Unless either Mattison or Zamir White is healthy enough to go, the Raiders will depend heavily on scat-back Ameer Abdullah to carry the load. That means a lot of off-tackle or outside runs until the Raiders are far enough behind to abandon the run altogether. Leave Bolton on the bench if you can.

The Chiefs may have something in third-year-man Nazeeh Johnson. He broke into the lineup in week ten and has been a pleasant surprise for the Chiefs on the field. Johnson has been even better for us on the stat sheet. In three starts, he's averaging 5.5 tackles and 3.5 assists, with a sack, a pass breakup, and an average just north of 12 points per game. The Raiders are a plus matchup for corners, largely because they play from behind most of the time. The return of Aidan O'Connell should mean more confidence in the passing game and another solid outing for Johnson.

Guru's IDP Notes: Las Vegas Raiders

Tyree Wilson is quietly starting to make an impact. With a season-high 3-1-1 versus Denver, he now has three sacks in the last four games and a fairly strong matchup with the Chiefs next on the schedule. With mediocre matchups the rest of the way, I'm not all that excited about Wilson helping us win this year but he is worth a stash in dynasty leagues.

Jack Jones has strung together four solid outings including last week's matchup with the Broncos when he led the team with seven solo stops. He has ugly matchups in weeks 16 and 17 but games with the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Falcons in the next three weeks, could help us get deep into the playoffs.

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Chargers

Tuli Tuipulotu had a slow day on the stat sheet against Baltimore but I am even more excited about him after the game. Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, and Bud Dupree were all active yet Tuipulotu still led the way with a 77% play share. On the field, he was a far bigger factor than his 1-1 on the stat sheet suggests. The Falcons are giving up a mediocre 2.6 sacks per game but more than two splash plays to the edge position. It could be a big game for the emerging star.

Guru's IDP Notes: Miami Dolphins

If you are a starting linebacker on a team that signs Tyrel Dodson, go get an insurance policy against injury. Dodson is an NFL backup yet, like Cody Barton, wherever he goes as a backup, the guy in front of him gets hurt. The latest victim is Anthony Walker Jr. who suffered a hamstring injury against the Patriots. Walker is already ruled out for this week, suggesting it could be a multi-week absence. As for the potential of Dodson, tackles made five yards downfield score the same as those made at the line of scrimmage. It's better to have a bad player in a great situation than a good player in a bad one.

Chop Robinson is coming on. With a 2-2-1.5 and 2 batted passes, he has three and a half sacks in the last four games.

Guru's IDP Notes: Minnesota Vikings

Ivan Pace Jr. left Sunday's game with a hamstring injury, which landed him on IR this week. Kamu Grugier-Hill is the next man up in the two-down linebacker role, but I expect to see more three-safety looks, especially this week against the Cardinals.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New England Patriots

Christian Barmore saw his first action of the season in week eleven. He was on a pitch count in that game, seeing 21 snaps. His role was a little bigger in his second game at 35 plays. On 56 snaps, which is roughly one game's worth of action for a healthy Barmore, he is 5-0-1. This could be the week he returns to that 50+ play role.  

Jabrill Peppers was activated from the commissioner's exempt list and will begin practicing this week. There was no injury here so he should be back in action quickly and might even play in week thirteen.

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Giants

Kayvon Thibodeau was quiet in his return from injury, going 1-1. Azeez Ojulari, who did an outstanding job while Thibodeaux was on the mend, landed on IR with a toe injury suffered in Sunday's contest. Patrick Johnson will move up the depth chart and should be the third man in the rotation going forward. 

At the end of week seven, Dexter Lawrence II led the league with nine sacks and was the fantasy game's top tackle. Five weeks later he is still looking for sack number ten and has fallen to DT5. The fire has gone out but a Thursday game against the Cowboys could rekindle it. Dallas has given up eight sacks to interior linemen over the last six games with at least one to the position in every contest since week five.

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Jets

In week eleven we learned that Chuck Clark is back and that Jalen Mills seems to be ahead of Tony Adams on the depth chart at free safety. This is the week we can use that information to our advantage. Only the 49ers have allowed more points per game to the safety position than the Seahawks. The fact that many of us can slip Mills into our lineups as a corner, is a bonus.

Guru's IDP Notes: Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia came away with a convincing win in week twelve but it was not without a price. Darius Slay Jr. left in the third quarter with a concussion, Brandon Graham suffered a season-ending triceps tear, and Josh Sweat missed some snaps with an ankle injury. The Eagles find themselves in a tough spot. No one is talking about Sweat's ankle so it could be a non-issue. The team also picked up Charles Harris who was recently let go by the Panthers. The other option, which they turned to some last week, is to shift Milton Williams outside.

Williams usually sees most of his playing time as a passing-down interior lineman but he has played the edge at times throughout his college and pro careers. He has three sacks in the last three games and five on the season. At the very least he should get a bump in playing time. For those in need at the thin interior line position, Milton could emerge as a difference-maker for the playoff run.    

Guru's IDP Notes: Pittsburgh Steelers

Congrats to anyone who leaned on Nick Herbig as a sleeper/stream option last week. He came through for us in a big way, racking up 4-1-1 with a forced fumble. For those who missed out last week, sorry but you are too late, the train has left the station. Alex Highsmith returned to practice this week and is trending toward playing against Cincinnati. That will send Herbig back to a limited role.

Unlike years past, the Bengals are not a plus matchup for pass rushers. In fact, they have become somewhat stingy, giving up one sack per game and ranking 24th in points allowed to the edge position. With that in mind, Herbig would have been a marginal start in this one anyway. The same goes for Highsmith. That said, even with the less-than-stellar matchup, don't outsmart yourself by sitting T.J. Watt. The guy has been a Bengals killer throughout his career.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Seattle Seahawks

When the Seahawks whacked Tyrel Dodson a couple of weeks back, we knew it meant an opportunity for rookie Tyrice Knight. He has made the most of it and even outproduced Ernest Jones IV in week twelve. Knight now has three starts on the season. In those games, he is a combined 16-11-1 with an average of about 12.5 points per game. We might look at this week's matchup with the Jets and hesitate to start Knight. New York has allowed the fifth-fewest point to linebackers. Keep in mind, however, that Seattle linebackers in general have a long history of big tackle production regardless of the opponent. Knight might be worth the risk.

Despite having a solid match-up on paper, Julian Love was a major disappointment against the Cardinals in week twelve. To be fair, Love's 2-0 with a couple of passes defended had more to do with the Arizona offense than any shortcoming by Love. The Cardinals' offense couldn't get the ball past the linebackers in the running game (12 rushes for 40 yards), and when they threw, it was almost as if Love were a shutdown corner that they were trying to avoid. The Jets are not a strong match-up on paper but I don't see Love being written out of the game script twice in a row.

Rayshawn Jenkins was activated from IR and played 50% of the snaps as the third safety in big nickel situations. Interestingly, Coby Bryant not only continued to start but also played every defensive snap on the way to six solo stops and an interception he returned for a score. It remains unclear if Jenkins will return to the starting safety role now that he's had half a game to knock the rust off. Don't count on it though. 

Guru's IDP Notes: San Francisco 49ers

Dre Greenlaw is expected to practice this week. By the time he is game-ready, it may be too late for much of an impact, especially if he is eased into the lineup. Put him on the radar just in case.  

Nick Bosa was inactive with a hip injury last week. As of Wednesday afternoon, he had not been seen on the practice field this week either. Leonard Floyd stepped up against the Packers, going 4-0-2, giving him three and a half sacks in the last two games and four and a half in the last five. While his recent numbers are good, it will be tough sledding for all of the 49ers pass rushers this week. The Bills have allowed an average of one sack per game since week five with edge defenders averaging 5.5 total tackles as a group.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers secondary has been a moving target all season. With Jordan Whitehead recovering from a pectoral injury that will keep him out for the rest of the fantasy season, five of the team's top six defensive backs have missed time.

The good news is that Jamel Dean should be back in the lineup this week. Just in time for a strong matchup with a Carolina offense that has allowed the third most points to corners. It's a safe call that Dean and Zyon McCollum will be the starting corners. It's also a safe call that Antoine Winfield Jr will be at safety. With Whitehead out, does Tyree Smith move into the starting lineup with Christian Izien in the nickel role? Providing that Smith is a go, that would be my expectation. Smith's availability remains in question due to his sore knee. The bottom line here is that Izien should have a big role. He was 5-5 last week and is productive when he stays on the field.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Tennessee Titans

Jerome Baker was on the field for all 56 of the Titans' defensive plays against Houston but managed just three solo stops on the day. If the Texans were a poor match-up we could easily overlook this. That is not the case though, as Houston is a top-ten matchup for linebackers. Baker gets another shot this week against the Commanders who are also a top-ten matchup.

Guru's IDP Notes: Washington Commanders

Jeremy Chinn is feast or famine. In his six good games, he's scored 118 fantasy points. In his six bad games, Chinn totaled 37. Another interesting but odd fact about Chinn is that matchups seem irrelevant. In two games against teams that allow the second and third fewest points to safeties, he totaled 17 tackles and 4 assists. Likewise, in three games against teams that are top-five match-ups, he is a combined 8-3. Washington's next three games are against the Titans, Saints, and Eagles, who rank 28th, 29th, and 30th, respectively, in points allowed to safeties. Does this mean we should start Chinn? Toss a coin I guess.  

Benjamine St-Juste went 6-0 in week nine, 6-1 in week eleven, and 5-1 in week twelve. Most managers would be happy with those numbers from the corner position. What the numbers don't tell us is that his role has been steadily reduced over those games. He played 98% of the snaps in week nine, 72% in week eleven, and 58% in week twelve. Sooner or later this is going to catch up with him on the stat sheet. Don't get caught with your hand in the cookie jar when that happens.

That does it for week 13. Best of luck to all of you, especially those who, for all practical purposes, are in a playoff game this week.  

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