Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 11

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

With Jalen Thompson inactive, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson got the start at safety. This may have been a preview of next year, with Taylor-Demerson turning in a solid 5-1 with two pass breakups.

Baron Browning had a limited role, playing 18 snaps in his first game with the team. With the bye week to get more familiar with the scheme, we should see a lot more of him in week twelve. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

Mike Hughes left Sunday's game with a neck injury. He got the all clear when the MRI showed no structural damage. It's unclear if he will miss any time but it should be minimal.

Interestingly, the Falcons skipped over Dee Alford, who had a marginal role and put Clark Phillips III in the lineup. After playing 90% plus in four consecutive games, Alford was on the field for 15 snaps versus New Orleans.  

In my early note, I mentioned that Troy Andersen was active but did not show up on the stat sheet. Upon further review, he played 13 snaps before aggravating the knee injury. It looks like Nate Landman will be joining Kaden Elliss as starters for a while longer.

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

Kyle Hamilton left the week 10 game with a nasty-looking ankle sprain. Baltimore played on Thursday, so Hamilton will have a few extra days to heal. Coach Harbaugh said the injury is not considered serious, so the extra time could be enough for him to play against the Steelers this week. Ar'Darius Washington finished at safety and would likely get the call if Hamilton is not ready.

Nnamdi Madibuike finally looked like the guy who helped a lot of managers win championships last year. After racking up five tackles, three sacks, and a forced fumble versus the Bengals, he will likely earn a start in most leagues this week. The Steelers are allowing about half a sack per game to interior linemen, which is about what Cincinnati was giving up before last week as well. The Steelers, however, are a strong matchup in the tackle columns, with opponents' interior lines averaging 14 combined stops against them. The bottom line is that Madibuike should be in our lineups this week.

Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills

Greg Rousseau kept it going with 3-1-1 and a forced fumble against the Colts. After his five-game slump that started in week two, Rousseau has four straight outings with double-digit points. He could make it five this week against a Chiefs offense averaging the seventh most points to the edge position.

The Bills opened the 21-day window for Matt Milano's return. It might be a week or two away, but he is getting close. If you have been depending on Dorian Williams, be prepared. That window may be closing soon.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

 D.J. Wonnum is back with a bang, going 4-2-1 with a forced fumble against the Giants. There was no easing him in as Wonnum played 50 snaps (67%) in his first game of the season. On one hand, we should not overreact to this since it was against the Giants. On the other hand, The Panthers are off this week but finish with the Chiefs, Buccaneers twice, Eagles, Cowboys, and Cardinals. Of that group, only Arizona is in the bottom half of the league in average points to the edge position, and even they are middle of the pack. With the return of Wonnum, Charles Harris went from starter to surprise inactive.  

Demani Richardson made a good showing while Jordan Fuller was out, but it was not enough to earn him any playing time when Fuller returned on Sunday. Fuller was, however, his normal average self, going 2-4.

A'Shawn Robinson has been anything but average of late. Adding his 5-2-1 and a forced fumble from week ten, he is 13-5-3 with a turnover in the last three games. Hopefully, he will still be in the zone after the bye.    

After the big tackle numbers in his first start a few weeks ago, Trevin Wallace continues to fade. With the return of Josey Jewell in week nine, Wallace has been under 70% of the snaps in two straight games. It's time to move on.

Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears

Kyler Gordon returned from his hamstring injury in week ten. His numbers were nothing to speak of at 3-1, but Gordon was back in the nickel role, moving around on an 81% play share. Over the six weeks, games against the Packers, Vikings twice, Lions twice, and 49ers are not great matchups for outside corners but are not bad for nickel guys. In week 17, Chicago plays Seattle, which is a great matchup.

It was another ugly performance for Montez Sweat who went 0-1 against New England. If that were not disappointing enough, he was third among the team's edge defenders in playing time at 45%.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

Jordan Battle and Vonn Bell continue to split playing time virtually equally, but their play on the field and production on the stat sheets has been anything but equal. As a Bengals homer, it is time to make the change and roll with Battle. After going 5-2 on 30 snaps versus Baltimore, he is 8-5 with a pass breakup on 61 snaps over the last two games, while Bell is 1-4 on 63. C'mon, Zach, make the change!

If you can get your hands on Trey Hendrickson, make it happen. He came crashing back to earth with a 2-1 against Baltimore and has a mediocre matchup with the Chargers this week, followed by a bye. After that, he gets the Steelers, Cowboys, Titans, and Browns in weeks 13 to 16. All four of those teams are top-ten matchups for the edge position, with the Titans ranking fourth and the Browns first.

Sam Hubbard has struggled for most of the season, and his playing time now shows it. Hubbard has seen less than half of the defensive snaps in two straight games and is under 50% in the last two games. The team would love to see last year's first-round pick, Myles Murphy, step up. So far, he's been invisible.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

There are two situations to watch when the Browns return from their bye this week. Jordan Hicks is expected back from his elbow injury. With Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah on IR, what will the linebacker position look like? Hicks will be a starter and likely take over the three-down role. Who will line up with him? If Hicks moves into Owusu-Koramoah's spot, it would likely be Devin Bush in the middle. If Hicks stays in the middle, it will likely be Mohamoud Diabate on the weak side.

The other situation of interest is at the edge. After sending Za'Darius Smith to Detroit, Ogbo Okoronkwo is in line to start. He had been part of a rotation opposite Myles Garrett. With Smith gone, Okoronkwo could get enough snaps to be relevant.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys

DeMarvion Overshown was having a career game (8-3-2) before leaving with a dreaded non-contact injury. He was not gimpy walking off of the field, so there was optimism that it may not be serious. The Cowboys and his fantasy managers got good news on Monday when he was diagnosed with bursitis. His availability for week eleven remains uncertain, but he is not expected to miss much time.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Denver Broncos

There could be a shakeup at the Broncos linebacker position in the next few weeks. They looked at Kwon Alexander, who saw action in a couple of games before getting no playing time on defense last week. The shakeup could come when Drew Sanders returns. It is not yet imminent, but when Sanders suffered the Achilles' injury in April, Sean Payton said they hoped to get him back late in the season. Sanders has been practicing on a limited basis. Watch for an increase in participation, which would signify a potential return.

Both the Broncos and fantasy managers would welcome Sanders's return, which could bump Cody Barton out of the lead role. Barton has struggled recently, with two or fewer solo tackles in four of the last five games.

John Franklin-Myers has quietly recorded three sacks in the last four games. Matchups with the Falcons, Raiders, and Browns over the next three weeks will give him a good chance of adding to that total.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions

With all the injuries, Detroit was supposed to have no pass rush. Don't tell that to the Texans, who gave up four against them, and that was with Za'Darius Smith inactive. Smith will be on the field this week and likely in a significant role. He could be a solid pick-up for our stretch run.

Smith will get all the attention, but bargain hunters should look at Josh Paschal. His role increased when Aidan Hutchinson was lost. Paschal was 4-0-1 in week seven before missing two games with an illness. He returned last week to go 4-1-1 against Houston, making Paschal 8-1-2 in his last two games.

Kerby Joseph took the week off—at least the stat sheet looks that way. Joseph was in his normal, full-time role, but the game flow simply didn't go his way.  

Ifeatu Melifonwu practiced in full all last week and could be active as soon as week eleven. After watching him blow up down the stretch last season, we know what he is capable of. Upon return, it will be very interesting to see what role he has, if any.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Houston Texans

If you watched the Texans, you saw Devin White making some flash plays. Unfortunately, he's not getting a lot of opportunity. White played 32 snaps in week eight when both starters were sidelined but just 22 over the last two weeks combined.

The Texans are using a four-man rotation at safety (usually playing three at a time), with no one getting 80% of the snaps. Jalen Pitre led the way with 78%.

Guru's IDP Notes: Jacksonville Jaguars

We follow snap counts because they are both important and available to us. They are vital to projecting consistency from a player, but they are sometimes trumped by game flow. This was the case in Jacksonville last week when Devin Lloyd piled up 16 tackles, including 9 solos, on less than 80% of the action. Ventrell Miller was 4-1 with a batted pass on 60%, and Foye Oluokun 6-4 with a pick while playing every defensive snap. In short, nothing has changed.

Maybe Josh Hines-Allen should change his name back. He's been a huge disappointment for most of the season. There are some juicy matchups for him the rest of the way. That said, after following his best game of the year at 4-0-2 in week nine with an 0-1 against the Vikings, it will be hard to trust him even with the great matchups from week 13 to week 17.

Guru's IDP Notes: Kansas City Chiefs

 With Jaylen Watson out, the Chiefs have been shuffling the secondary over the last three weeks. In week eight, three players shared time at the corner position opposite Trent McDuffie. In week nine, Josh Williams made the start and played every snap. Last week, it was Nazeeh Johnson putting up big numbers (6-4-1) as the surprise starter. The numbers are eye-catching but who knows what the Chiefs secondary will look like this week.

The pass rush has reinforcements on the way. Charles Omenihu will return to practice this week and could be activated as soon as week eleven, though he will likely get another week of practice in before being activated.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Chargers

Over the last three weeks, Daiyan Henley has parlayed a trio of top-five matchups into 25 tackles, 14 assists, a sack, and 3 pass breakups for an average of 18 fantasy points per game. With Junior Colson on IR, Henley is playing every snap and making the most of the opportunity. He's become an every-week must-start, even against the Bengals, who are a middle-of-the-pack matchup.

In last week's column, I mentioned that Khalil Mack looked like he was dealing with a groin issue. It turned out to be the case. He started against the Titans but left very early. Mack and Joey Bosa ended up playing 24 snaps between them, with Bosa getting 20. Considering how well the backups are playing, the Chargers may not want to push Mack or Bosa.

Tuli Tuipulotu followed his 5-1-2.5 in week nine with a mark of 3-2-2 on 83% of the snaps against the Titans. Bud Dupree was shut out in week nine. He was 4-0-1 in week eight before blowing up for 4-1-2 and a forced fumble last week. The Bengals are a far more difficult matchup, allowing the third-fewest points to edge defenders on the season. However, with four teams off, options are limited.

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams defensive line has been on fire of late. They added three more sacks to the total versus Miami on Monday night. Keep those guys in you lineup this week against a Patriots team that is allowing 3.2 sacks per game to oposing linemen, including 1.7 to the interior positions. Factor in the 9+ tackles they are giving up to the interior positions and the Patriots are the second best matchup for tackles.

In a very interesting development, on Monday night, Omar Speights not only started but saw more playing time (74%) than Christian Rozeboom (62%). Spaights also outproduced Rozeboom in the tackle columns at 6-2, compared to 2-1. Rozeboom salvaged the game for fantasy managers with a pick and three passes defended. It's even more interesting when considering the Rams' next three opponents, New England, Philadelphia, and New Orleans, are all top-six matchups for linebackers.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins benched David Long Jr in week nine. They left him there in week ten. With Anthony Walker Jr. playing well, there is no reason to expect a switch back. Walker totaled nine stops and added an interception against the Rams. Las Vegas is a mediocre matchup for linebackers so consider Walker a decent LB3 option this week.

With a sack in each of the last two games, Chop Robinson is showing signs of big things to come. As anticipated, he is not making a splash as a run defender. His two solo stops on Monday night were a season high.  

Jordyn Brooks was 6-5 against the Rams and is putting up the kind of tackle totals we saw from him before the injury.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Minnesota Vikings

As anticipated, the return of Blake Cashman sent Ivan Pace Jr. back to a part time role. Pace played 26 snaps against Jacksonville. However, don't hesitate to start either of these guys against the Titans this week. The Tennessee offense is run heavy, making them the third best matchup for linebackers, and their use to "12 personnel" with two tight ends, allows opponents to stay in their base defense much of the time. We might call Pace a two down, matchup based player. This is one of those matchups to exploit.   

Guru's IDP Notes: New England Patriots

The Patriots piled up nine sacks against Chicago last week. Don't expect a repeat. The Rams do a much better job of protecting the quarterback, allowing an average of two sacks per game and 1.5 to defensive linemen.

Last week I wrote about Christian Elliss having his playing time reduced. Later in the week we learned he was dealing with an abdominal issue. Ellis was inactive against the Bears and is far from a lock to return in week eleven. His absence last week resulted in Jahlani Tavai playing full-time and going 7-2-1 with a pass breakup. Early in the season, the Rams were a horrible matchup for middle linebackers. In the four games since the bye, that has not been the case.   

Marte Mapu got the first shot at starting when Jabrill Peppers was placed on the exempt list. He was nearly an every snap participant in four straight games before dropping to 77% in week nine and 40% in week ten. Dell Pettus appears to have moved past Mapu in terms of playing time, logging 55% in week nine and seeing 63% of the action in week ten.

Guru's IDP Notes: New Orleans Saints

A glance at his totals of 4-1 and snap count of 67% might have us thinking that Pete Werner was back to normal after a couple of strong outings. Further investigation reveals that he left the game with a hand injury. As of Wednesday afternoon there is no update on his status for week eleven. If he does play, get him into you lineup against a Cleveland squad that has allowed the second most points to linebackers.

The Saints are a goldmine of corner production. Against the Falcons, Ugo Amadi led the team with 9 solo stops, including three tackles for loss and a pass breakup. Alonte Taylor was not far behind at 7-2. Even third corner Shemar Jean-Charles managed 4-3. Kool-Aid McKinstry will return from his hamstring injury before long. When he does, pluck him off waivers. Until then, Amadi might be a solid addition.   

Peyton Turner had his highest snap count of the season. He went 2-2-1 with a forced fumble and a batted pass on 32 snaps. With Carl Granderson showing up on milk cartons, could there be a change coming? Turner is a former first round pick afterall. Put this one on the watch list.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Giants

I've said it before and will say it again: never underestimate the extra motivation that comes from a player facing a former team. Brian Burns has been a strong option for us all season. He has six sacks and double-digit points in six of the last eight games. At 4-5-1, his best fantasy output of the season came in week ten against the Panthers, who drafted him in round one back in 2019.

After blazing hot streaks earlier in the season, Azeez Ojulari and Dexter Lawrence II have cooled off in recent weeks. Lawrence led the league in sacks after week seven. In the three games ince, he is 4-10-0. Similarly, Ojulari had five sacks in his first three games as a starter and is 1-3-0 over the last two games. This could be nothing more than a coincidence but we should not overlook the fact that NFL teams scout and adjust. When players put together runs like Lawrence and Ojulari did, opponents game plan to stop them.

This might be a good time to trade Lawrence. He still ranks at or near the top of the tackle position, but there are a couple of reasons for concern. The three-game slide is a big one. Just as importantly, when the team returns from this week's bye, three of their next four games are horrible matchups for interior linemen. The only remaining matchup with an opponent on the top half of the matchup list is in week 14 against the Saints, who rank 14th.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Jets

Maybe there is something in the New York water. Like Ojulari and Lawrence on the other side of town, Will McDonald IV seems to have used up all his mojo. After racking up eight sacks over a six game span, he has two assists and a fumble recover over the last three games. If you need a roster spot to cover a bye, McDonald's has to be a consideration.  

Tony Adams was back in action against the Cardinals. He put up a solid 5-5 on 81% of the snaps before liming off late in the game. There has been no mention of an injury but keep an eye on the practice reports later in the week just in case.

Jalen Mills turned in a funky stat line for a safety at 1-7. There is nothing to see here though. He was a 100% participant and should continue to be for the forseeable future.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Pittsburgh Steelers

Alex Highsmith is back on the shelf after an ugly ankle injury late in Sunday's game. He is expected to be out a while and may be an IR candidate. This makes the Preston Smith addition look like a brilliant move. Smith came on for 23 snaps and landed his first sack as a Steeler. He will have a great chance to add to it with two matchups against the Browns over the next four games. Cleveland has given up the most points to edge defenders on the season.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks released Tyrel Dodson. The timing of this is a surprise, but I've said all along that Dodson is not an NFL starter. The only question I have is why they did not hang onto Jerome Baker. At any rate, it looks like Tyrice Knight is going to get his shot earlier than expected. Knight looked good and was productive in short duty earlier in the year. If you need help at linebacker, he should be at or near the top of your waiver wish list.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Calijah Kancey is the real deal. He was 5-0-1 with a forced fumble against San Francisco, giving him three sacks in last two games, four in last five, and 15 solo tackles in five games since returning to action in week six. Looking ahead, after this week's bye, the Buccaneers get the Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, and Panthers again in championship week. That's a juicy schedule for our playoff run.   

Kenny Britt's struggles on the field are taking a toll on his playing time. He's worked on less than 65% of the snaps in last two games.

Guru's IDP Notes: Tennessee Titans

After a great start to the season, Harold Landry III has fallen on hard times with one sack in the last five games. Tennessee failed to record a sack at all against the Chargers last week and have another tough matchup versus the Vikings in week. The silver lining for those of us with Landry, is that he tends to give us solid tackle totals even when sacks elude him. The bad news is that he has no plus matchups on the schedule the rest of the way.

Every season, there is a player or two who shows up late and carries some lucky managers to a title. This year's late bloomer could be Jack Gibbens. In three starts, he is 18-19-.5, including two games with at least 14 total stops. He has some tough matchups during our playoffs, but his next three games are against the Vikings, Texans, and Commanders, who are all top-ten matchups for linebackers.  

I need to make a correction to the week ten EOTG. Jerome Baker did not play every snap in week nine. That was a error from the people that do the snap counts. The 100% play share went to Darrell Baker Jr., not Jerome who has not yet seen the field since going to Tennessee.

Guru's IDP Notes: Washington Commanders

I had grand expectations for Dorance Armstrong entering the season. I should have planted my flag on Dante Fowler Jr instead. He was 3-2-2 versus the Steelers, has 8 sacks in last six games, and strong matchups in five of the next six games. Three of those games will be againt the top three teams in points allowed to the edge position.  

It took a while to get there but now we're seeing the Jeremy Chinn I expected before the season. He went 6-7 with an interception and fumble recovery against Pittsburgh for his highest point total of the season, giving him at least 11 fantasy points in four of the last seven games.

Washington made a deal for Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. Lattimore brought a lot of injury baggage with him and is off to an ominous start with his new team. He has already been ruled out for week eleven.  

That does it for week eleven. Best of luck as we start the sprint to the finish.

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