Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 10

It's been a busy week in the IDP world. In addition to the normal injury situations, we have a slew of underperforming players, coaching changes, lineup changes, and even a trade or two with some impact. Let's see if we can navigate this minefield without tripping one.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

Sean Murphy-Bunting missed week eight with a neck injury. He was supposedly removed from the injury report ahead of the week nine game but was inactive. Rookie Max Melton got the start in week eight and has now played every snap in two straight games. He put up good numbers (8-1 FF, PD) in relief of Murphy Bunting in week seven, adding 8 more stops in week eight. Melton had a slow day versus Chicago last week but if he remains in the lineup down the stretch, there are some strong matchups on the schedule. Arizona has the Jets this week, Seattle in weeks 12 and 14, and Carolina in week 16. All of those teams are top-seven matchups for corners.

The Cardinals boosted a lacking pass rush with a trade for Baron Browning. Injuries have kept Browing from reaching his potential thus far but he he should be a good scheme fit with the potential to be productive if he can stay on the field. With L.J. Collier hopping off the field on one foot late in last week's game, Browning could have a big role immediately.

Kyzir White remains the lead man at the linebacker position in Arizona but keep an eye on Owen Pappoe this week. The 51% snap share he saw last week was a season-high, as were the stats he put up at 4-1 with a forced fumble. Meanwhile, Mack Wilson Sr. logged 71% participation but did virtually nothing with it yet again, at 1-1.

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

Troy Andersen returned to practice ahead of week eight. He was questionable in the leadup to the last two games before landing on the inactive list for both of them. This could be the week he finally gets back on the field. That said, If you put him in your lineup, make sure you have a plan B.

There is no need for a plan B if Kaden Elliss is on your roster. He is coming off a great game at 8-5-1 and, like whoever gets the start beside him, be it Andersen or Nate Landman, has a strong matchup with a Saints offense that had provided the fourth most points to linebackers on the season. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

I'm unsure what the Ravens are doing at the free safety position. Marcus Williams was a surprise healthy scratch in week eight with Eddie Jackson making the start. Jackson seemed to play well and was statistically productive. The team threw us another curve in week nine when the two players switched. Williams was back in the lineup with Jackson on the inactive list. Stay away from these guys until Baltimore figures out what they are doing. 

I mentioned in last week's column that Kyle Hamilton has become matchup-proof. He turned the weak matchup with Denver into a big outing at 7-3 with a pass breakup. Cincinnati is a much stronger opponent.

Trenton Simpson played virtually every snap in the last two games. He was 7-2-1 with a batted pass against Denver, giving him three consecutive games with double-digit fantasy points. The Bengals are a mediocre matchup for linebackers. On the other hand, Denver had allowed the sixth-fewest points to linebackers before last week. Interestingly, Simpson has outscored Roquan Smith in two straight as well.

The trade for Tre'Davious White likely has minimal direct IDP impact. It is a boost for the Ravens' defense in general and could mean more opportunity for Marlon Humphrey with Brandon Stephens possibly moving to the slot.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills

Gregory Rousseau opened the season with a three-sack bang. He then went into hiding, scoring 19 fantasy points in the next five games before scoring 35 over the last three. Rousseau is streaky for sure. After last week's 4-3-1 against Miami, he is hot right now.  

Von Miller returned in week nine after serving his suspension. It was perfect timing for the Bills who placed Dawuane Smoot and Casey Toohill on IR early this week. Miller did not make an impact versus the Dolphins but that is likely to change going forward. Buffalo is down to a three-man rotation on the edge so Miller will have plenty of opportunity.

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

Jordan Fuller has not played since pulling a hamstring in week three. He was a full participant in practice last week but was ruled out on Saturday after being doubtful on the Friday injury report. He could be ready this week but there might be another factor in play here. Fuller is a marginal NFL starter when healthy. Nick Scott, who is also a marginal NFL starter, moved into the lineup for four and a half games before joining Fuller in the trainers room.

When Scott was lost, the Panthers turned to undrafted rookie Demani Richardson, who has been impressive in two starts, both on the field and in the box scores. In two games, he has 15 tackles, 8 assists, and a pass breakup. The situation makes me wonder if the coaching staff may be thinking about giving the youngster a longer look. I am picking Richardson up in some leagues this week. If Fuller sits, Richardson will be in some of my lineups. If Fuller is active, I'll still sit on Richardson until he returns to the bench.

Charles Harris went 5-1-1 against the Saints, giving him three sacks in the last five games. He is seeing plenty of playing time, exceeding 70% of the snaps on most weeks, and has a matchup in Germany this week with a Giants team allowing the second most points to edge defenders. With four teams on bye, Harris could be a good stream option.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

It was a career day for Trey Hendrickson, who was unstoppable on the way to four sacks, a forced fumble, and a batted pass. The sack explosion pushed him ahead of Dexter Lawernce for the league lead with eleven. Hendrickson is an every-week, matchup-proof, must-start for us moving forward.

For his linemate, Sam Hubbard, it is a little more complicated. Hubbard came on strong after working through the hamstring issue that slowed him early on. In the month leading up to the matchup with Las Vegas, Hubbard reached double-digit fantasy points three times, exceeding 20 twice in four games. That run came to a screeching halt against the Raiders when Hubbard was 0-3. Most importantly, he was on the field for just 28 snaps. As of Wednesday afternoon, there had been no word of an injury issue or any explanation from the team. Considering that Hubbard had his best game of the year, going 7-2-1 against the Ravens in week five, we need to figure this out before Thursday, if possible.  

B.J. Hill was forced out of Sunday's game with a rib injury. If he is sidelined this week, Kris Jenkins Jr. will slide into the starting lineup. The 2-3-1 he recorded versus Las Vegas was Jenkins' best production of the season, but it was no more than a scratch on the surface of his potential. The Ravens are not a good matchup for tackles, but three of the Bengals' four matchups after that are top-six matchups for the position. 

Could there be a changing of the guard on the horizon at safety? Vonn Bell and Jordan Battle worked in a virtually even timeshare in week nine, with Battle outperforming the veteran. There were no big numbers involved but it is a situation worth monitoring.

It was a disastrous week for those who started Germaine Pratt. He finished with one tackle and a pass breakup in this game, but there is nothing to see here. His playing time was down a little to 82%. That may have been due to the lopsided score and the Bengals pulling starters in the fourth quarter. It was simply a bad matchup made worse by the offensive game plan working away from Pratt. He had nine combined stops against Baltimore in their earlier meeting. Similar production this week is a reasonable expectation.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

The Browns have a bye this week but are still making news. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah landed on IR with a neck injury. With Jordan Hicks still nursing his elbow, Cleveland started Devin Bush and Mohamoud Diabate against the Chargers. Bush responded with a strong 6-2-1 on 81% of the snaps. Not so much for Diabate who went 2-2 with a pass breakup on 91%. There is a good chance Hicks will return after the bye. The question is, where will he line up and who will be out there with him? We are unlikely to get an answer before the team takes the field again.  

The Browns shipped Za'Darius Smith to Detroit. While he was a marginal fantasy option, taking him out of the mix could allow Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to be a bigger factor. Okoronkwo has a pair of sacks on the season and is 7-1-1 with 3 tackles for loss over the last two games, after working through the knee injury that bothered him early on. Put him on the watchlist when the team returns to action.    

Guru's IDP Notes: Denver Broncos

Denver had the league's stingiest defense until the Ravens lit them up for a 40 burger on Sunday. The game was ugly and hard to watch, but there were some interesting numbers to be aware of. Cody Barton was in his normal role, playing every snap. So his 1-6 stat line can be written off as a fluke. Justin Strnad finished 1-1 but was not in his normal 70% role. He was on the field for 14 plays (25%), while Kwon Alexander went 2-3 with a forced fumble on 54%. As of Wednesday afternoon, there has been no explanation from the team. There might be an underlying issue here, such as an injury. If Strnad is your guy or you need help at linebacker, watch for some word from the team later in the week.  

Denver realized that Nik Bonitto was a better, more productive fit for them on the edge, so they Traded Baron Browning to the needy Cardinals. Bonitto no longer has to look over his shoulder.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions

He's not Aiden Hutchinson, but the trade for Za'Darius Smith solidifies the Lions defense and plugs a big hole. Smith has five sacks on the season. The low tackle totals keep him from being a major fantasy factor. He has three or fewer combined stops in seven of nine games. The change of venue could help in that area. Smith rarely reached a 60% play share with the Browns. With the lack of depth in Detroit, he could be on the field a lot more going forward.

Ifeatu Melifonwu is expected to practice soon and could be activated in the next week or two.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers

When we look at the stat sheet from the Packers/Lions game, keep in mind that much of this game was played in torrential rain. As a result, Green Bay fielded three linebackers on 79% of the plays. Quay Walker was back in his normal full-time role. Eric Wilson collected 74% of the action, Edgerrin Cooper 67%, and Isaiah McDuffie got 33%.

The Packers shipped Preston Smith to the Steelers at the trade deadline. The move allows 2023 first-round pick Lucas Van Ness to take his place in the starting lineup.

Guru's IDP Notes: Houston Texans

Denico Autry was very quiet in his first two games with the Texans. He blew up in the third, going 3-0-2. There is more to the story, however. Will Anderson Jr. left the game with an ankle injury after eight snaps. Autry did all his damage after moving to the edge. Anderson is considered day-to-day and Coach Ryans remains hopeful that he will be available.

Henry To'oto'o was back in action last week. His totals were low at 3-1, but his workload was 100%, with Neville Hewitt losing a few snaps at 86%. There is a fairly good chance that Azeez Al-Shaair will return in week 10, sending Hewitt back to the bench. A matchup with the Lions should be good for whoever takes the field.

Guru's IDP Notes: Indianapolis Colts

It took a long time and some injuries to get there, but Dayo Odeyingbo has finally become the Colts leading edge defender in terms of snaps. His 75% play share in week nine was his second-highest total of the season and the third week in a row that he led the position in snaps. The production has been spotty, and he has some poor matchups in the next couple of weeks. But for those who look ahead, the Colts play Tennessee and the Giants in weeks 16 and 17. Both are top-five matchups for edge defenders.

Guru's IDP Notes: Jacksonville Jaguars

There was not much change in the linebacker snap counts in week nine. Foye Oluokun showed up with 8 solo stops on a 90% play share, while Ventrell Miller was 4-4 on 57% and Devin Lloyd 6-2 on 77%. This is welcome news for those rostering Lloyd, who had a lower count last week, but not so much for managers with Miller.

At 4-0-2, Josh Hines-Allen had his best game of the season against the Eagles. The question is, can we count on him the rest of the way? He's been wildly inconsistent with more horrible weeks than good ones so far. Hines-Allen has three games with at least 13.5 points and four with 4 points or fewer. On the optimistic side, there are no horrible matchups left on the schedule. There are also four games versus teams that rank among the six best matchups for the position, including the Raiders and Titans in weeks 16 and 17.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Kansas City Chiefs

Nick Bolton flopped on Monday night, but he was not alone. Despite what was a highly competitive game in which the Buccaneers put up one heck of a fight, Tampa Bay only handed the ball to a running back 13 times. The only Chiefs' defender to muster more than eight fantasy points was George Karlaftis, and he didn't even have a huge game at 3-1-1. Don't count on a big rebound for Bolton this week against a Broncos offense that has allowed the sixth-fewest points to linebackers.      

Guru's IDP Notes: Las Vegas Raiders

Nate Hobbs was heading toward a big game, putting up five combined stops before being carted to the locker room early in the second quarter with an ankle injury. With the Raiders on bye this week, the chances of an update on Hobbs before week eleven are slim.

The bye came at a good time for Raiders defenders. Hopefully, the week off will be enough for Hobbs to recover, and it will certainly help Robert Spillane. He was questionable right up to game time with a sore knee. Spillane suited up but was not 100%. The result was a 1-6 on the stat sheet and the lowest point total of the season for the linebacker.

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Chargers

For the second consecutive week, Daiyan Henley was the only Chargers linebacker to work more than half of the defensive snaps. He was not a 100% participant as in week eight, but Henley turned the game's best matchup for linebackers into 14 combined tackles and a pass breakup on 85%. We could see a repeat this week when Los Angeles hosts a Titans offense that is the second-best matchup in the game for the position. 

Khalil Mack came through for us with a sack and forced fumble. He has a good matchup with the Titans sitting fifth in points allowed to the edge position. I have a little concern with Mack though. After the sack of Jameis Winston, Mack was hobbled as he went to the sideline and appeared to be dealing with a groin issue. He returned to the game a little later but played sparingly the rest of the way. Mack's snap count was way down at 42% on the day. We should keep an eye on this when the late-week practice reports come out.

Joey Bosa continues to nurse a hip injury. Coach Harbaugh told us before last week's game that Bosa was expected to have a bigger role after playing 20 snaps in week eight. It didn't work out that way as he worked on 19 snaps and was blanked on the stat sheet.

With both starters gimpy, we could see a lot of Tuli Tuipulotu and Bud Dupree this week. Tuipulotu has three and a half sacks over the last two games and is coming off the best game of his career at 5-1-2.5. He is high on my sleeper list this week.

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Rams

Christian Rozeboom moved into the three-down role when Troy Reeder landed on IR two weeks ago. Rozeboom is a marginal NFL starter, but the situation is making him a serious fantasy contributor. In week nine, he turned a poor matchup into 11 total tackles with 8 solos. This week, he gets a Miami squad that has allowed the fourth most points to linebackers.

Tre'Davious White was removed from the injury report on Friday but was inactive on Sunday. It was listed as a coach's decision, and we now know why. They wanted to make sure he was healthy for the trade to Baltimore. The Rams are set to proceed with Cobie Durant, Darious Williams, and Ahkello Witherspoon as their top three corners.  

Backup safety Jaylen McCollough showed up on the stat sheet with seven combined tackles and an interception versus the Seahawks. With the team paper thin at the linebacker position, the Rams turned to McCollough as their second backer. He was on the field for 56 snaps at the position, while Omar Speights, Jacob Hummel, and Nick Hampton combined for 15. Keep an eye on this situation going forward. If he continues to see 70% of the action as a linebacker, McCollough could be a sneaky add as a safety.

Guru's IDP Notes: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins didn't win any friends in the IDP community when they benched David Long Jr. with no warning last week. Long was in uniform but it was Anthony Walker Jr. with the start and a mark of 4-6 on 100% participation. Many managers will grab Walker in this week's waiver moves. While that is a good idea, there are a couple of good reasons to hold him out of our lineups this week. The last two linebackers to face the Rams have been productive, but Los Angeles has generally been a horrible matchup for linebackers. The bigger issue is that we need to see if the Dolphins are going to stick with the move or go back to Long. See the Ravens' safety situation with Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Minnesota Vikings

On my Monday Notepad, I noted that Jonathan Greenard was shut out. I should have added, through three quarters. Greenard came up with a pair of sacks late in the game, making him the highest-scoring player among Vikings' defenders.

It was a slow week for Ivan Pace Jr., but that was not completely unexpected, considering that the Colts are giving up the fewest points to the linebacker position. The matchup will be better this week when the Vikings go to Jacksonville, but there is another angle to watch. Blake Cashman has not practiced since suffering the toe injury but there is optimism that he could get back on the field this week. When Cashman returns, Pace goes back to a part-time role.   

Guru's IDP Notes: New England Patriots

After leading the Patriots linebackers with an 84% snap share in week eight, Christian Ellis dropped back to just under 60% versus the Titans. The result was a modest 4-2 despite the stellar matchup. Meanwhile, Jahlani Tavai reclaimed the top spot on the unit in both tackles and fantasy points at 6-5 with a pick on 88% of the playing time. 

Guru's IDP Notes: New Orleans Saints

We can stick a fork in the Saints' hopes for 2024; they are done. Instead of looking at their roster, the team selected a scapegoat and fired head coach Dennis Allen. There will be a ton more turnover before next season, both with the coaching staff and the roster. New Orleans is looking to the future, and what they see is a huge cap deficit starting next year. All things considered, it is a surprise that Marshon Lattimore was the only highly-paid veteran traded away.

With Lattimore gone and Paulson Adebo recovering from a broken femur, Alonte Taylor goes from the nickel role to number one corner. The team prepared for losing Lattimore at some point with the selection of Kool-Aid McKinstry, who will assume a starting role once he recovers from the hamstring injury that kept him out in week nine. Unfortunately, the injury kept us from learning if McKinstry could be a significant fantasy contributor like the players before him.

Is Pete Werner back? After missing three games with an injury, he has been on the field for 98% of the snaps in each of the last two games and with 13 tackles and four assists, has led the team in stops two weeks in a row. The test will come in week ten when the Saints face a Falcons team that has allowed the second-fewest points to the position. The good news is that New Orleans hosts Cleveland in week eleven and has good matchups throughout the fantasy playoffs.  

Will Harris has been designated to return and will begin practicing this week.

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Jets

The Jets recorded eight sacks, but Will McDonald IV somehow had none of them. He left with a non-contact injury early but returned a series or so later and did not seem to be slowed. New York played on Thursday, so if there is an injury, McDonald will have extra time to heal. Haason Reddick had a bigger role in his second game but was not a factor at 0-1-.5 on 57% of the action. Meanwhile, Michael Clemons had his best day as a pro, going 2-1-2 with a forced fumble.

Jalen Mills has quietly exceeded 11 fantasy points in two of the last three games. With all of the team's injuries at safety, it looks like he will be in the lineup for a while, potentially for the rest of the season. Many league host sites still have Mills as a corner. This is a situation we can take advantage of.  

Jamien Sherwood turned in his most productive game as a pro, going 7-0-2 against the Texans. The more he plays, the more Sherwood looks like the future for the Jets. At the very least, he is safe for the next few weeks. The Jets gave an update on C.J. Mosley early this week. He is dealing with a stinger that left his neck sore and stiff, hampering his range of motion. He had a procedure done to help loosen the muscles but will not return until fully recovered, according to the team. It remains to be seen if Mosley will land on IR, but he is expected to be out at least a couple more weeks.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Philadelphia Eagles

Need some help at the edge position? See if Josh Sweat is available. His 3-2-2 with a pass breakup against Jacksonville was a season-high and gave Sweat five sacks in the last five games. A week ten matchup with a struggling Dallas team adds to his rising stock.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have gone from a scrappy team clinging to wildcard aspirations early on, to a division contender with the luxury of trading for quality veteran depth on defense. The addition of Preston Smith and Nick Herbig nearing a return, means the pass rush will be relentless and deep.  

Guru's IDP Notes: San Francisco 49ers

His return is not yet imminent, but Dre Greenlaw was recently seen on the field in shorts and a helmet, doing some running. His rehab could pick up steam from here and Greenlaw might be relevant in time for our playoffs.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In last week's column, I expressed concern about the role of Christien Izien when Tykee Smith and Antoine Winfield Jr. returned. That happened on Monday night and those concerns were realized. Instead of playing Izien on the corner where Jamel Dean is out and Tyrek Funderburk had been benched a week earlier, the Buccaneers started Josh Hayes, leaving Izien with two defensive snaps.

Guru's IDP Notes: Tennessee Titans

Quandre Diggs will miss the rest of the season with a Lisfranc injury. Mike Brown is the next man up at the position. He managed six combined stops on 81% of the snaps after entering Sunday's game and is worth monitoring. The Chargers are a poor matchup this week, but the Titans have good matchups for safeties during our playoffs.

In a shocking move, the Titans fielded three linebackers on every snap against the Patriots. Only Jack Gibbens recorded useful numbers at 5-9-.5, but that might have much to do with the matchup. Kenneth Murray Jr. was not a complete bust at 3-3. However, coming on the heels of his 1 assist effort in week eight, it is enough to keep him out of our lineups. The head-scratcher here is how Jerome Baker managed to play the entire game without making a single play. The fact that he was on the field full-time is enough to give Baker one more week in some situations.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Washington Commanders

The addition of Marshon Lattimore is a huge upgrade for a team that unexpectedly finds itself in the driver's seat for a playoff spot. What it means for fantasy managers is unclear. I anticipate that Lattimore will replace Noah Igbinoghene, shifting Benjamin St-Juste to the number two role where he belongs. It will take a game or two to see what that means on the stat sheets.  

Dante Fowler Jr is on pace for the second-best season of his nine-year career. After adding 3-3-2 and a forced fumble to his resume last week, he has 6.5 sacks over the last seven games. If recent production is not enough to convince you. Five of the Commanders' next six opponents are among the top ten in points surrendered to the edge position. 

That's a wrap for week ten. Best of luck to you as we begin the sprint to the finish.

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