Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 9

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

Jalen Thompson turned in a season-best of 8-3 against the Dolphins. It was his second double-digit point total of the season. This guy was once a consistent, every-week start for us, but that is no longer the case. He's been little more than a bye-week fill-in or matchup-based spot starter since last season. If you are looking for a matchup to exploit, the next really good one is not until week 16. The next six games include three mediocre matchups and three weak ones. At least Budda Baker remains matchup-proof.

Sean Murphy-Bunting missed week eight with a sore neck. The Cardinals have been quiet on the severity of the injury. All we know is that he did not practice last week. Teams tend to be exceptionally cautious with neck issues, so it is hard to say if he will be available. With Murphy-Bunting sidelined, rookie Max Melton stepped into the starting lineup. Melton played every snap, posting a respectable 4-4. While the upcoming schedule is less than stellar for the safeties, four of the next seven opponents are top-six matchups for corners. Factor in the rookie corner rule, and Melton could give us a good stretch run if Murphy-Bunting misses significant time.

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

After missing the last four games with a sore knee, Troy Andersen could be back on the field against the Cowboys this week. According to Coach Morris, Andersen is day-to-day, but there is optimism after he returned to the practice field last week. Dallas is a good matchup for linebackers, but he may not have a full workload right away.

If Andersen misses another game, there will be plenty of managers looking for production from Nate Landman. Be aware, however, that Landman played 75% of the snaps versus Tampa Bay with rookie JD Bertrand picking up 22%.

With Justin Simmons sidelined, Richie Grant started at strong safety and played every snap. His total of 3-1 was disappointing, considering the Buccaneers were the second-best matchup for safeties going into week eight. Justin Simmons was doubtful with a sore hamstring leading up to week eight. His status for week nine is yet to be determined, but it is noteworthy that the Cowboys are also a good matchup for safeties.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

One important lesson we learned in week eight is that the Browns are a much different matchup when they have a real NFL quarterback. As a result, Kyle Hamilton went off (9-1-1, forced fumble, and 2 pass breakups) versus what was previously the worst matchup in the game for safeties. We also learned, or at least reinforced, that Hamilton has to be in our lineups every week regardless of matchup.

This week's matchup features a rookie under center, but not your typical rookie. Denver has been a strong matchup for safeties, giving up the fifth-most points to the position. The interesting point is that Bo Nix has thrown one interception since week two.   

The biggest news with the Ravens is that Marcus Williams was benched ahead of last week's game. Eddie Jackson got the start and played well, putting up 6-4 while playing every snap. Ar'Darius Washington was promoted to the third safety role. Jackson put up good numbers for us while with the Bears, so he might be a worthy addition.  

For the first time since week two, Roquan Smith (5-3) and Trenton Simpson (4-0 FR) played 100% of the snaps. We'll have to see if this was a change in approach or just a matchup-based outlier. Simpson had consistently been seeing about 65% of the action.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo's linebackers were a disappointment for fantasy managers last week. Dorian Williams saw his role reduced to 63% of the action, managing just two combined stops. Baylon Spector stepped in for Terrell Bernard again, going 3-2 on the day despite 100% participation. Bernard's status for week nine is still up in the air, but the ankle injury was not expected to sideline him for long.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

Josey Jewell returned to the field with a bang, going 6-4 100% of the playing time. He will take over the green dot duties going forward and is an every-week play for us. Trevin Wallace saw his production plummet to two tackles and two assists with a forced fumble, somewhat salvaging the day for those who started him. The good news is that Wallace still saw 89% of the playing time. Don't hesitate to play him this week versus a New Orleans offense that has allowed the third most points to linebackers.  

Undrafted rookie Demari Richardson got the start at strong safety against Denver. He stepped up big on the stat sheet, going 7-4. Don't rush out to pick him up though. Richardson started because Jordan Fuller and Nick Scott were injured. Scott landed on IR, while Fuller was activated last week and began practicing. Chances are, Fuller will be ready soon.

Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears

The good news for the Bears and those of us who have him is that Montez Sweat finally showed up, going 3-1-1 versus Washington. The bad news is that it was his lowest snap percentage of the season at 50%. While it was good to see him finally do something, be careful about letting it con you into starting him this week. The Cardinals are giving up less than a sack and a half per game, have now allowed one since week five, and give up modest tackle totals to edge defenders.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

 Cam Taylor-Britt went through a rough stretch of games early in the season. He's not making the Pro Bowl this year but has been much better lately, both on the field and in the box scores. Taylor-Britt has eleven or more points in three of the last four games. The Raiders are a solid matchup this week and for those who look ahead, The Bengals play Dallas in week 14 when six teams are on bye. Only two teams surrender more points to the corner position than the Cowboys.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

The Brown's defense had been keeping them in most games. They finally got decent play from the quarterback position but now the defense is beat up. Edge defender Ogbo Okoronkwo left Sunday's game with a knee injury and Denzel Ward suffered a concussion. Both players are significant contributors for Cleveland but the loss of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to a neck injury will have the most impact.

As I write this, the Browns have not given an update on the nature or severity of the injury. What we do know is that Owusu-Koramoah spent the night in the hospital. We also know, as mentioned earlier, that NFL teams are very cautious about neck injuries. Thus, it would be a shock to see Owusu-Koramoah on the field this week, and it would not be a surprise to see him land on IR and miss at least four games.

With Jordan Hicks nursing an elbow injury, we could see Mohamoud Diabate and Devin Bush as the starting linebackers this week. Many managers are adding Diabate after he was 5-4 with a pass breakup against Baltimore. There is no argument from me about doing so, but be aware that he was replacing Hicks while it was Bush who was 3-2 after coming on to replace Owusu-Koramoah. There is a chance that Hicks will return this week. Stay on top of this if you have a horse in the race.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys

Amani Oruwariye was 6-2 on 36 snaps and heading for a big game when he left with a back injury. Dating back to his stint in Detroit, Oruwariye is picked on mercilessly when he gets on the field, and it usually turns into good tackle production. There are two injuries to watch in this situation. Even if Oruwariye is available, he may not get on the field much. DaRon Bland has been practicing and could be active for week nine.

Guru's IDP Notes: Denver Broncos

Kwon Alexander was involved in week eight. He even tied Cody Barton in tackles, with both going 1-1. The difference is that Barton played every snap while Alexander did his damage on 13 plays. Those 13 plays came at the expense of Justin Strnad, who was down to 61% participation. The bottom line is that there is nothing to see here. Barton's near-vanishing act was half fluke and half horrible matchup. That won't be an issue this week versus Baltimore.

Brandon Jones totaled 7-5 against the Panthers. That gives him double-digit fantasy points in four of the last six games, including an eleven solo outing in week six against a Chargers team that is the worst matchup in the game for safeties. Until there is a reason to do something different, Jones will be in my lineups going forward, regardless of opponent.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions

With the trade deadline looming (November 5th), the spotlight will be on Detroit to see if they do something about a non-existent pass rush. Even linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez is now down with an ankle. He was a major factor in the blitz over the last two games. As a result, Alex Anzalone landed the Lions' only sack in week eight.

Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers

For the third time in four games, Evan Williams started at strong safety. He has been impressive and appeared to have moved past Javon Bullard on the depth chart. Williams played the first 18 defensive snaps on Sunday before leaving with a hamstring injury. Green Bay has a week nine bye, so unless he is fully healthy, it is unlikely that Williams will suit up for the Lions. That makes Bullard a viable starter for us with a strong matchup.

Quay Walker sat out last week with a concussion. As suggested in last week's column, it was Eric Wilson (5-4) in the lead role with Edgerrin Cooper (5-4-1 FF PD on 60%) and Isaiah McDuffie (4-4 on 67%). Walker practiced twice last week but was not cleared to play. Chances are, he'll be back for week nine.

Jaire Alexander hurt his knee on the last play of the game. If he is unavailable, look for Carrington Valentine to get the start.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Houston Texans

Danielle Hunter did nothing before landing a pair of sacks in crunch time near the end of the game. Fortunately, it still scores the same. That makes it four sacks in the last three games for Hunter, who appears to be back.

Speaking of being back, the Texans expect to have Henry To'oTo'o available for this week's game. He was a last-minute scratch for week nine after practicing late in the week. With Houston playing on Thursday, it is unlikely that we will see Azeez Al-Shaair until at least week ten as he is not yet practicing. That means another start for Neville Hewitt.

Devin White shows up at 2-1 on 50% of the action, in an even split with Jake Hansen. Both go back to the bench with To'oto'o's return.

We were watching to see if Denico Autry had an expanded role in his second game back from suspension. He did not, instead playing less than half of the snaps and making no impact.

Guru's IDP Notes: Indianapolis Colts

Players are often eased into action after a stint on IR. DeForest Buckner would have none of that. After missing five games, he logged over 60% of the snaps and was his usual disruptive self. Buckner's 2-1-1 was a solid contribution for fantasy managers, but his impact on the field was even greater. As a manager with several shares of Buckner across my eleven IDP leagues, it stunk to be without him for five games. The silver lining is getting a guy like that back for the stretch run with fresh legs.

I believe Kenny Moore II (6-1) saw time in the slot in week eight. When the Colts had three corners in the game, it looked like Samuel Womack III was on the outside with Moore in the nickel. Unfortunately, Womack played less than half of the snaps.

Guru's IDP Notes: Jacksonville Jaguars

Here we go with another game of linebacker musical chairs. In my early notes, I mentioned that Ventrell Miller was staying in the middle, with Foyesade Oluokun sliding to the weak side. Upon further review, that was indeed the case, but it was not the whole story. Oluokun did line up on the weak side most of the time, going 4-4 on a 93% play share. Miller did, indeed, get the start in the middle and lead the team with five solo tackles. Miller did not, however, play full-time. He logged 59% of the snaps, while Devin Lloyd played 57%. The Jaguars are likely to proceed with this approach. Miller has proven that he can be productive on fewer snaps, while Lloyd has not.

Ronald Darby left the game with a hip injury. If he misses time, rookie Montaric Brown will be back in the lineup. He made a lot of tackles while covering for Tyson Campbell.

Guru's IDP Notes: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs made an under-the-radar move in trading for Joshua Uche. This was a move to add depth, but Uche has shown the ability to get after the passer in the past. He had eleven sacks in eight games in 2022.

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Chargers

For the fourth time this season, but the first time since week four, Daiyan Henley worked on over 90% of the snaps against the Saints. When he does so, Henley is productive. Week eight was no exception when he was 6-5 with a batted pass on 100% of the playing time. What was different from the other games was that neither Denzel Perryman nor Junior Colson had a significant role as a second linebacker. Perryman was 2-1 on a 34% share, while Colson was 1-1 on ten snaps. The Chargers have been all over the place with their linebackers from week to week, so I'm not holding my breath for the same breakdown in week nine.

Joey Bosa was active but absent from the stat sheet due to a limited role. He played 20 snaps and came out no worse for wear, so his playing time should increase this week.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Rams

In an unexpected late-week move, the Rams put Troy Reader on IR on Saturday. The ensuing shuffle put Christian Rozeboom in the lead role. It was a quiet game for him, going 2-4 versus the Vikings, but Rozeboom played 94% of the snaps. Omar Speights picked up some playing time, logging 22 snaps, while utility player Michael Hoecht also saw some time as an off-ball backer. There are no studs here, but sheer volume gives Rozeboom some value going forward.

With the hole at linebacker, it would make sense that the safeties should stay busy. That could be the case going forward, but it was not so in week eight. After posting at least six combined stops in each of the first six games, Quentin Lake was 1-1 versus the Vikings. Minnesota is a poor matchup for safeties in general, but this was beyond poor. The good news is that Lake is healthy and had his normal 100% participation. The funny-shaped ball takes strange bounces. This was one of them.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Miami Dolphins

After a couple of games to get up to speed, David Long Jr was back in the full-time role, playing 97% of the snaps in week eight. At 6-2, the numbers returned as well.  

Nothing is foolproof in this game but we tend to get good production much of the time when players face their former teams. The cliché we get from players about it being just another game is a load of dung. Don't miss the opportunity to play Jordan Poyer when the Dolphins face the Bills this week.

Calais Campbell has quietly reached double-digit points in five of seven games and has good matchups down the stretch.

Guru's IDP Notes: Minnesota Vikings

Leave it to Ivan Pace Jr. to break the curse of the Rams. Pace managed a strong 7-6 after guys like Fred Warner, Robert Spillane, and several other good linebackers gave us nothing but disappointment with the matchup. The question now becomes, how close is Blake Cashman to returning from his turf toe injury? The answer to that question is unclear as of Wednesday afternoon. Cashman did not practice Monday or Tuesday, which is not a good sign. On the other hand, Coach O'Connell sounded somewhat optimistic on a Tuesday radio show. The team elected not to put Cashman on IR because they did not expect him to miss more than a couple of games. Hopefully, the Thursday practice reports will clear things up some.

Guru's IDP Notes: New England Patriots

Christian Ellis has not yet put up flash numbers but go get him if you can. His playing time has steadily increased over the last five weeks, as has his production. Ellis went 3-6-1 with a pass breakup against the Jets. Most importantly, his 84% play share was the most of any New England linebacker. If you manage to get him on your roster, play Ellis this week as well. There is no better matchup for linebackers than the Titans.

Guru's IDP Notes: New Orleans Saints

From the "Where did that come from?" file, Pete Werner logged 98% of the snaps and racked up 7-2 against the Chargers. This is the kind of production we expected but have never gotten from Werner since last year. Maybe he is back on track, but it will take more than one good game to convince anyone.

At 4-1 with a pass breakup, Kool-Aid McKinstry was short of Paulson-like production against the Chargers. At least at a glance. When we consider that the Chargers are a below-average matchup for corners, 8+ fantasy points are not horrible. Let's see how he does this week versus a Carolina offense that is the second-best matchup for the position.

Carl Granderson is struggling. With no sacks since week two and an average of about five points over the last five games, we almost have to move on. I say almost only because the Saints face Cleveland in week 11, the Rams in week 13, and the Giants in week 14. The Browns are currently the best matchup for edge defenders, followed closely by the Giants, with the Rams four slots behind. It comes down to how deep your league is and what options are on the wire. If you are stuck, there is reason for optimism.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Giants

It took eight weeks, but Bobby Okereke finally came to the party. At 7-7-.5 with a forced fumble and a recovery, Okereke doubled his previous season high of 12 points. Now we have to decide if he is really back or if this was a mirage. There are three reasons to be optimistic. The guy had 90+ solo tackles in each of the last three seasons, so we know how productive he can be. There are several plus matchups on the schedule, including the Cowboys, Saints, and Ravens, starting in week 13. Most of all, we drafted Okereke because this is who we thought he was. Maybe we were not so wrong after all.     

Andru Phillips has been the third or fourth corner for most of the season, seeing time in sub-packages. He played more than 80% of the snaps in two games. One of those games was in week two when he was 7-5-1 against the Commanders. The second was last week when he went 6-1 in Pittsburgh. This week is the rematch with Washington, so if he starts, Phillips could be the stream of the week. The problem is that the Giants' secondary situation is muddled. Cordale Flott missed last week with a sore groin. His availability for week nine is unclear at mid-week. It looked like Deonte Banks was hurt on a play, but it was later reported that he was benched but remains the starter. Keep an eye out for clarity here.   

Azeez Ojulari just keeps getting better. His 3-4-2 against Pittsburgh is a career-best. That said, Washington is a far weaker matchup.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Jets

It was supposed to be the week that C.J. Mosley returned to the lead role. Unfortunately, he never made it. Mosley was knocked out of the game with a neck injury. As I write this, we are awaiting the results of an MRI. Even if it is not a serious injury, Mosley is all but certain to miss time. That means business as usual for Jamien Sherwood, who continues to impress.

Chazz Surratt showed up with five solo stops against the Patriots. Upon further review, there is nothing to see here. He played 23 snaps. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Philadelphia Eagles

So much for the thought of Zack Baun fading. At 8-4 with a forced fumble, he turned a middle-of-the-road matchup with the Bengals into his highest point total since week one. Nakobe Dean was not far off the pace at 7-2 with a recovery, and Reed Blankenship also bounced back from a run of mediocre games, going  6-2 with a pass breakup.

We should not expect such production from this trio in week nine. The Jaguars are an average matchup for all positions. The telling statistic is that no opponent has had more than one player with six or more solo stops against them all season.

Darius Slay Jr. left Sunday's game with a groin injury. If he misses time, Isaiah Rodgers would likely fill in. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Seattle Seahawks

Ernest Jones IV was traded to the Seahawks last Wednesday. By the time he got to Seattle, the practice schedule was pretty much finished for the week. In most situations, that would mean a limited role at best on Sunday. No so for Jones, who played all 76 snaps and recorded his highest combined tackle total of the season at 7-8. His next challenge will be producing against a Rams offense that, before Ivan Pace Jr. had a big game against them last week, was the worst matchup for linebackers. There is some risk with Jones in this one, but we almost have to roll the dice.

Coby Bryant turned in another respectable outing in his second start. He was 5-1 with a pass breakup despite facing a Bills offense that allows the second-fewest point to safeties. He should fare much better this week versus a Rams team that has given up the fourth most.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lavonta David missed some snaps last week with an ankle issue. He had it taped and returned to finish the game at 4-4. That suggests he will be fine for week nine, but keep an eye on the injury news as the weekend draws near. David is an automatic start if he goes. This week's matchup with Kansas City makes K.J. Britt a decent option as well. His upside is limited, especially in the big play department, but the Chiefs have given up the eighth most points to linebackers.

It seems like the Buccaneers have a different look in the secondary every week as they shuffle to cover injuries. In week seven, Tyrek Funderburk was a surprise starter in place of Jamel Dean, with Christian Izien limited to 10 snaps. Last week, Izien was 7-2 on a 92% share. He has proven to be highly productive for us when working in a full-time role. Be careful, though. Izien worked in the nickel/slot role last week because Tykee Smith was out with a concussion. Smith is still in protocol, but if he is cleared later in the week, Izien could be bumped to a lesser role.

Guru's IDP Notes: Tennessee Titans

Once in a while, there is a game that makes us look twice and say what the heck? The Titans and Lions might have been the strangest game of the season. Detroit scored 52 points despite their quarterbacks passing for less than 100 combined yards. So they must have run a lot, right? A lot of yards, yes, a lot of carries, not so much. Jahmyr Gibbs carried eleven times and David Montgomery nine. With six touchdowns scored, there simply was not much opportunity for Titan's defenders.

Even with the odd game script, Kenneth Murray Jr. should have done better than one assist. We can write that one off as a strange bounce. What we need to be looking at this week is the other linebacker spot. After sending Ernest Jones IV to Seattle, Tennessee promoted Jack Gibbens, who proceeded to play every snap and lead the team with eight total stops. The wild card here is Jerome Baker. He came to the team in the trade with Seattle and was inactive on the short week. It remains to be seen if the Titans consider Baker a backup or will work him into the lineup once he has learned enough of the scheme. I expect he will at least be active for week nine. Hopefully, we will have a better answer after this week's game.

The Lions are a tough matchup for edge defenders, so the poor showing by Harold Landry III was expected. His being virtually shut out was not. Expect a bounce back this week versus a Patriots team, which is a much better matchup.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Washington Commanders

Quan Martin had his most productive game of the season against Chicago at 9-2, but don't get too excited about it. After an 8-1 performance in week one, Martin went six games without reaching eight fantasy points in any of them. The Giants matchup is on the weak side of mediocre for safeties. The schedule after that features three of four games against bottom ten matchups.

This is a good week to consider Dorance Armstrong as a sleeper option. New York did a pretty good job of protecting Daniel Jones through the first six games, especially compared to the 2023 season. However, their carriage turned back into a pumpkin in week seven, and they have allowed 12 sacks over the last two games.

That's all for my week nine offering. Best of luck as we head into turn three and approach the stretch run.

Enjoy this article? Find more from John here.