Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 5

As we head to week five, we've moved out of stage one of the season. The initial shock and mad waiver scramble that comes from it are now behind us. In stage two, we will be micro-managing rosters and trying to survive a war of attrition compounded by bye weeks. At times, it will be a struggle just to field a full lineup. Keep your chin up, and no matter how bad your team may look, remember that nearly everyone is in the same boat.   

Possibly the best part of this stage is that after four games, we finally have enough data to make decisions on. Some guys have proven to be rock solid every-week starters, some have bombed, and a bunch have shown us they will probably be inconsistent all season. Fortunately, we can counter some of that with knowledge, as we also have enough to go on and can make more educated guesses on matchups.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

Mack Wilson Sr. sent mixed signals over the first couple of games. Consecutive weeks with at least an 85% snap share and solid production in three of four games is enough to instill some confidence. That and a good matchup with the 49ers, is enough to make Wilson a viable LB3 this week. The fact that he's seeing some time on the outside and being turned loose as a pass rusher adds some big play upside on most weeks. San Francisco allowed eight sacks over the first two games but one in each of the last two.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

Troy Andersen was a game-winner for anyone that started him in week four. His mark of 10-7-0 with a pick-six was impressive. The story has a downside, as Andersen was limited to 76% of the snaps due to a sore knee. He missed practice on Tuesday and has been ruled out for Thursday's game with the Buccaneers. Rookie D.J. Bertrand stepped in on Sunday and is in line for his first career start. 

Matthew Judon could not overcome a tough matchup with New Orleans and a 55% snap share. While the playing time is likely to be a concern all year, this week's matchup with the Buccaneers is a plus. Tampa Bay allows 3.8 sacks per game, including 2.5 to edge rushers.

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

A dominating defensive performance in week four led to low tackle totals for Baltimore's linebackers. The Bengals offense is playing well but the inability of Cincinnati's defense to stop the run could mean another slow day for Roquan Smith. Games rarely go as we expect them to, but there is a good chance Baltimore will ride King Henry in this one, controlling time of possession and keeping the Bengals in passing mode when they have the ball.    

Guru's IDP Notes on Buffalo Bills

Speaking of King Henry, Taylor Rapp lost a fight with Henry's thigh and is in concussion protocol. Cole Bishop replaced him and played fairly well. Bishop would get the call if Rapp is not cleared. He and Damar Hamlin should be good options in a matchup with the Texans. They might not make much big-play impact, but the safety position has averaged 18.5 tackles against Houston.   

Where is Ed Oliver, you say? He is certainly off to a slow start with a pair of goose eggs already, but patience is the prescription here. It's a thin position, so the chances of finding a better option on the wire are slim. Oliver is still seeing his normal workload of around 70%, and the Texans have been a plus matchup for tackles. The position is averaging almost seven stops and one and a half sacks against them.

Guru's IDP Notes on Carolina Panthers

Carolina got the double whammy, losing Shaq Thompson for the season to a torn Achilles and Josey Jewell to a hamstring a few plays later. Jewell is expected to miss at least one game but should return sometime in October. With Thompson heading to IR, the door is open for rookie Trevin Wallace.

Jewell will have the lead role when healthy, so his stock goes up in the long run. For this week, however, Wallace becomes a quality start. The off-ball linebacker position is averaging 20 combined tackles versus Chicago. If you don't have a horse in this race, use the opportunity to get a look at Wallace for future consideration.  

Claudin Cherelus picked up a few snaps after Jewel went down as well, but there is no reason to be excited about him. For much of the fourth quarter, the Panthers turned to a big nickel with three safeties and one linebacker. That could be a big part of their plan until Jewell returns.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati defensive line is crippled by injuries. They could get B.J. Hill back this week but will likely be without Trey Hendrickson, who has a sore neck after a friendly-fire incident. The good news for Hendrickson is that there was no nerve damage, so he may not miss much time. On the other hand, he left the stadium on Sunday with his arm in a sling.

Sam Hubbard has been playing through an injury all season. While he looked better on the field versus Carolina, it did not show up on the stat sheet. It looks like Hubbard and Joseph Ossai are on the edge this week, but the Bengals could get Myles Murphy back soon. He was designated to return from IR on Wednesday.

Cam Taylor-Britt was horrible in week four. He was beaten off the line several times and gave up some big plays before being replaced by DJ Turner in the second half. The team has been mum on Taylor-Britt, who simply did not look right.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

Jordan Hicks went into week four with sore ribs and an elbow issue. He aggravated the elbow eight snaps into the game and was replaced by Devin Bush. Bush went on to post a modest 3-1 on an 86% play share. The Commanders are a plus matchup for linebackers, so Bush could be a solid stream for this week if Hicks is not ready.

Ronnie Hickman logged every snap at safety against the Raiders, totaling a solid six solo stops. He could give us another productive outing this week. Juan Thornhill should be back soon, though.

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas got by the Giants in week four, but it was costly. DeMarcus Lawrence left in the third quarter with a foot injury, and Micah Parsons went to the locker room in the fourth with a high ankle sprain. Lawrence hit IR on Tuesday. The team has not ruled Parsons out as of Wednesday, but his chances of playing in week five are slim.

The Cowboys would love to have a Dorance Armstrong to plug in, but they are not as deep as in seasons past. With both starters down, rookie Marshawn Kneeland is set to make his first career start versus the Steelers. Carl Lawson could get the call on the other side.    

Andrew Booth Jr got the start at corner for the injured Caelen Carson. Booth struggled and was replaced by Amani Oruwariye in the second half. Carson is trending toward playing this week and DaRon Bland is closing in on a return as well.  

It looks as if DeMarvion Overshown has separated from Dameon Clark in what was a time-share to start the season. Overshown put up a strong stat line of 6-3 with a pass breakup on 86% of the playing time against the Giants. Meanwhile, Clark followed his twelve snaps in week three with five in week four. The snap count trend is encouraging for those of us who have Overshown. A matchup with the Steelers is enough to make him a strong consideration as a starter this week. Their opponent's linebacker positions are averaging 21 combined tackles.

Guru's IDP Notes: Denver Broncos

Despite some significant injuries, the Denver defense is proving they are the real deal. Even with the loss of Alex Singleton, they kept the Jets out of the end zone. As expected, Cody Barton stepped into the lead role, playing every snap against New York while producing ten combined stops. Also as anticipated, Justin Strnad moved up the depth chart into the other starting spot. He was 3-1-1 on 77% of the action. The Raiders are not a particularly good matchup for linebackers, but at least the struggles of Denver's offense will likely mean a close, low-scoring game.

Nik Bonitto put another mark in the sack column. With the Raiders giving up over three per game, Bonitto has a good shot at making it three weeks in a row.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions

Jack Campbell had a nice stat line at 6-1 with a forced fumble against the Seahawks. The numbers behind the numbers, however, were not as expected. When Alex Anzalone missed week three, Campbell filled in with 100% of the playing time at MLB. Most of us expected another three-down role for him with Derrick Barnes out as well. That was not the case. Campbell stayed in his normal role, logging 68% of the snaps, while Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Ben Niemann picked up the snaps Barnes left behind.

The corner position is hard to predict because so much depends on offensive game plans. That doesn't matter to Carlton Davis, who has double-digit points in three of four games and at least four tackles in all four of them.

Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers

Edgerrin Cooper had his best production of the season in week four, but he drew no closer to taking over the starting job. The playing time breakdown was about the same as week three, with Cooper recording four solo tackles and a fumble recovery on a 31% share.

Xavier McKinney is still not putting up big tackle totals, but he has an interception in four straight games. Sooner or later, that streak will end, leaving fantasy managers hanging. That could happen this week against the Rams since Matthew Stafford takes good care of the ball.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Indianapolis Colts

Injuries are piling up for the Colts defensive line. It started with Samson Ebukam in the preseason. Then it was all world tackle DeForest Buckner, followed by Kwity Paye, who missed last week with a quad injury. On Tuesday, the Colts added Tyquan Lewis to the growing list. He was placed on IR with an elbow. There is hope that Paye can suit up for week five. If he does not, Dayo Odeyingbo and rookie Laiatu Latu would be the starters. Odeyingbo was 1-2-1.5 while leading the Colts' edge position in snaps last week. If injuries have hammered you, Odeyingbo could be a decent stream option versus a Jacksonville team that's allowing over three sacks per game.

With Kenny Moore II sidelined, Chris Lammons stood out in the box scores at 4-1-1 with a forced fumble and a recovery while working as the slot defender. Samuel Womak got the start on the outside.  Moore missed the game with a hip injury that is not expected to keep him out for long.

Guru's IDP Notes: Jacksonville Jaguars

Devin Lloyd missed week four with a sore knee. With Foye Oluokun on the shelf for at least four games, the Jaguars went with Ventrell Miller and Chad Muma at linebacker.  Both players were productive with Muma at 4-4 on 95% of the action and Miller 8-3 on 84%. This still leaves us unsure who would line up next to Lloyd if he returns this week.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Las Vegas Raiders

With Marcus Epps out for the season, Isaiah Pola-Mao moved into the strong safety job. He put up a strong 4-2-1 with a pass breakup against a struggling Cleveland offense that provided limited opportunity. Palo-Mao was even more impressive on the field than in the box score, which leads to optimism about his potential going forward. Put him on your waiver list this week.

Maxx Crosby missed the first game of his career in week four. The Raiders were happy to hear that he plans to play this week. Without Crosby, Tyree Wilson stepped up and led the team's edge defenders in snaps at 71%, but his lone assist on the stat sheet was disappointing. Charles Snowden took advantage of the opportunity, recording the first full sack of his career. With a sack and a half in the last two games, Snowden has my attention. Let us see if he can add to the total versus Denver.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Chargers

Daiyan Henley left Sunday's game for a few snaps with a shoulder issue. He returned to the game, which is a good sign, but keep an eye on his practice status this week just in case. With Junior Colson still nursing a sore hamstring, Troy Dye would be the next man off the bench, while Denzel Perryman would likely have the lead role if Henley misses time.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Miami Dolphins

It took four games to get there, but Jordyn Brooks finally looked like the guy who used to fill the stat sheet in Seattle. He stepped up big, going 9-4-1 with a batted pass. The initial reaction might be to assume this had something to do with David Long Jr. being out but that was not the case. Brooks was in his usual role. Anthony Walker Jr. stood in for Long and wore the green dot. Walker missed a few snaps before the half due to cramps and finished with a respectable nine combined tackles. Long could be available for week five, but Miami has a bye in week six, so the coaches might elect to hold him out against the Patriots.

Jaelen Phillips walked off slowly after going down with a knee injury on Monday night. On Wednesday it was announced that his injury is season-ending. With four other players at the position already on IR or PUP, Emmanuel Ogbah, Quinton Bell, and rookie Chop Robinson, are likely to be the edge rotation.

Guru's IDP Notes: Minnesota Vikings

With Ivan Pace Jr. on the mend, Minnesota turned back the clock to 2023. They rolled out a big nickel base defense with Blake Cashman as the lone linebacker most of the time. They had three safeties on the field for 70 of 76 plays.

Patrick Jones II recorded his fifth sack of the season. He also played 57% of the snaps, marking his first game with over 50%. The Vikings had Andrew Van Ginkel work as a linebacker on some snaps, allowing them to get three pass rushers in the game.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New England Patriots

Kyle Dugger left Sunday's game with an ankle injury. The team updated his status on Tuesday, suggesting he likely avoided the dreaded high ankle sprain. His status for week five is in question, but he is not expected to miss an extended amount of time.

Snap counts are important, but they don't always tell the story. Jahlani Tavia led the Patriots linebackers with 89% but was only 3-1 on the day. Meanwhile, Raekwon McMillan continued to be the most productive of the group, posting seven stops on 78%. Christian Ellis got some work against San Francisco as well. He finished with more fantasy points than Tavia or McMillan with a mark of 2-1, a forced fumble, and a recovery, but he only played 14 snaps.

Guru's IDP Notes: New Orleans Saints

The Saints have a huge matchup with the Chiefs this week but could be shorthanded on defense. Tyrann Mathieu was forced out of Sunday's contest with a sore groin, and there are several injury issues at the linebacker position. Demario Davis was inactive for week four with a sore hamstring. His replacement, Willie Gay Jr, lasted a few plays before leaving with a hand injury. That left Pete Werner and D'Marco Jackson at the linebacker positions for most of the game.

Werner played every snap and still did almost nothing at 3-3. Jackson logged 71% of the playing time and was 1-2. Granted, the Falcons' offensive struggles played into it. They had 15 running plays and 21 completions on the day. The Chiefs are no longer the offensive juggernaut they once were, but they should be a better matchup than Atlanta.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Giants

Bobby Okereke has not been a complete bust, but he has been a disappointment. After totaling 92 solo stops in 2023, Okereke is currently on pace for 51 this year. I have to believe he will eventually wake up and be more like the LB1 many of us drafted him to be, but don't count on that happening this week as the Seahawks are a middle-of-the-road matchup for linebackers.

One player that should excel this week is Cor'Dale Flott. He stepped into the starting role when Dru Phillips went down with a calf injury a couple of weeks back. Flott went 7-3 versus the Browns in week three and was 3-1 with a pair of pass breakups against Dallas on Thursday. A matchup with Seattle could mean numbers more like the ones he put up in week three. The corner position is averaging 14 tackles, 6 assists, and 3 passes defended against the Seahawks, making them the top matchup for corners thus far.  

Guru's IDP Notes: New York Jets

I talked about the Jets safeties a couple of times previously. In week four, they gave us yet another different look, using more two-deep looks than in previous weeks. As a result, Tony Adams went 5-6, with Chuck Clark posting 2-5. This defense is an ameba and will continue to evolve with different looks based on the opponent and game plan. There will be more good games from these two players, but don't expect much consistency from either of them.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Philadelphia Eagles

Reed Blankenship was not injured in week four; he left the game with an illness. With a bye this week to recover, he should be fine the next time we see Philadelphia.

Guru's IDP Notes: Pittsburgh Steelers

When you look at the Steelers depth chart on the Footballguys site, you would think the defense is one big family with the last name of IR. Pittsburgh currently has nine defenders who will not be available this week. No position has been hit harder than the edge where Jeremiah Moon is on IR with Nick Herbig (ankle) and Alex Highsmith (groin) not expected to go against Dallas.

The injuries leave T.J. Watt as the only healthy player on the roster at the position, so it's hard to say what the team will do to compensate. It is, however, safe to expect that since the Cowboys have no one else to fear, Watt will be the focus of their blocking scheme. He managed two assists in week four. Even if they throw three guys at him on every play, Watt will likely do better than that, but it could be tough sledding for him.

Payton Wilson is a guy to watch as the season progresses. He and Elandon Robers split time virtually equally over the first three games. In week four, there was a little separation. Wilson produced six combined stops on 37 snaps, while Roberts totaled three assists on 21. Hopefully, this will become a trend that will make Wilson a factor as the season progresses.

Guru's IDP Notes: Seattle Seahawks

Julian Love left Monday's game with a thigh injury. Thigh injuries are most often bruises that can be painful but not debilitating, so his availability could come down to pain tolerance. There has been no update on the severity of the injury so for now, consider Love questionable and have a backup plan.

The Seahawks are another defense decimated by injuries heading into week four. The worst was along the line where Leonard Williams, Boye Mafe, and Byron Murphy II all sat out. The silver lining for managers was that the shortage of depth meant more snaps for Derick Hall. He has four sacks on the season and has stepped up big over the last two games in particular, totaling 6-3-3 with a forced fumble. Hall's 81% play share on Monday was his highest of the season, topping the 66% from the previous two games. Hall is not the only Seattle lineman who is on a roll. Jarran Reed is 6-8-2 over the last three games, with at least 9 points in each.

When we see the Giants as an opponent, the first thing that comes to mind for most IDP addicts is the 80+ sacks they gave up last year. When Daniel Jones was running for his life in week one it looked like 2024 would bring more of the same. The Giants have tightened the ship since that game, allowing four sacks over the last three weeks. The matchup may be diminished a little, but we should still strongly consider Hall, Reed, and, if they are available, Williams and Mafe this week.  

Jerome Baker was close to returning to the field last week, but the team decided to give his sore hamstring a little more time to rest. There is a possibility he will be ready to go versus the Giants. If not, Tyrice Knight could be a good replacement option for us. Knight started against Detroit and totaled 7-2 on 74% of the snaps.

Guru's IDP Notes: San Francisco 49ers

Fred Warner scored a lot of points for us early, but then left Sunday's game with an ankle injury. He is considered day-to-day so the injury must not be too serious. If Warner misses time, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles should get the call.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SirVocea Dennis was beginning to separate from K.J. Britt in playing time and production. We'll have to keep that in mind for next year. Dennis was knocked out of Sunday's game early on with a serious shoulder injury. That should make Britt an every-down guy going forward. Britt's numbers have not been impressive but the sheer volume of playing time at a traditionally productive position should be enough to make him relevant.

Yaya Diaby may finally be getting over the ankle injury that slowed him for most of September. He recorded sack number one on the season versus Philadelphia. The prospects of him getting his second this week are not all that good, though. Kirk Cousins is hard to chase down; thus, the Falcons are giving up just a sack and a half per game.

Guru's IDP Notes: Washington Commanders

There is still no explanation as to where our Commanders' IDPs were hiding for the first three weeks, but they finally showed up against Arizona. Jonathan Allen combined for seven points over the first three games. He posted fourteen against the Cardinals. Jeremy Chinn and Dorance Armstrong were high on my sleeper list heading into the season. After three depressing games from them, Chinn broke out with 7-3 and a forced fumble, while Armstrong racked up 3-2-1.5 with a forced fumble. It was only one game, so it proves nothing, but the fact that these guys came with high expectations is enough to provide optimism that it was not an illusion.

That does it for round five. Best of luck in your matchups this week.

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