Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 4

Guru's IDP Notes on Arizona

Mack Wilson Sr. followed a strong week one by all but vanishing in week two when he played just 23 snaps. He bounced back with a solid week three at 3-5-1. Most importantly, Wilson saw his largest share of playing time this season, with 87% participation. One thing that helped his cause was lining up on the edge at times. With the Cardinals short on pass rushers and Wilson showing that he can get home, this might be the answer that works for everyone.

I'm not sure how a player can go 1-9 but it's a safe bet that the stat crew was a critical factor in Kyzir White doing so. There is nothing to see here besides the side note that the Cardinals' home stat crew gives way too many assists and not enough solo tackles.

Owen Pappoe showed up in week three with four tackles and an assist. The production might earn him a little more playing time, considering he did it on eight plays.

Guru's IDP Notes on Atlanta

With Nate Landman on IR, Troy Anderson has been on the field for nearly every defensive snap over the last two games. The way he has played, it is hard to see Landman getting back into the mix whether he comes back later this year or not until next. With seven tackles and five assists, Anderson led the Falcons in week three. I expect he will become an every-week must-start for us in short order if he's not there already.

Matthew Judon has already proven that he can be productive with the Falcons. There is one negative in that he has played less than 60% of the snaps in each of the last two games. The Falcons ran with a four-man rotation in those two games with all four guys getting at least 30 snaps.

Guru's IDP Notes on Baltimore

Week three told us that the Ravens are probably a defense that will look different from week to week based on the matchup. In weeks one and two, Baltimore fielded two linebackers on nearly every play, with Trenton Simpson seeing 70% of the action. In week two, Simpson played every snap. Last week, however, the Ravens used a lot more big nickel. They ran two linebackers roughly half of the time, with three safeties on the field for every play. Eddie Jackson received a little more than half of the playing time as the third safety with Ar'Darius Washington collecting the rest.

One option the three-safety package allows for is to move Kyle Hamilton around in search of weaknesses to exploit. After totaling six tackles and three assists in the first two games, Hamilton went 7-5 versus Dallas.

Nnamdi Madubuike and Odafe Oweh were shut out of the box score versus Dallas, but there is nothing to see here. The two played 73% and 61% of the snaps, respectively, which is their normal workload.

Guru's IDP Notes on Buffalo

The Dorian Williams we are seeing this season looks nothing like the one who struggled when his opportunity came as a rookie. Williams is playing well and managed to lead the team in tackles on Monday night at 8-3. Those numbers are particularly impressive, considering he played less than 60% of the snaps in the blowout win over Jacksonville. Even in close games, Williams is not on the field for every snap. Once Terrel Bernard returns, that could mean a little inconsistency.

Baylon Spector made his first career start versus Jacksonville. He was in the lead role, playing every snap until the starters were pulled. His numbers were less impressive than in week two when he came off the bench but that is more of a reflection on the game script than a walk back in performance. With the Ravens next on the schedule, Spector remains a viable starter for us if Bernard misses another game.

The Bernard watch is on. The Bills elected not to put him on IR, hoping he could be back before the four-week minimum. It would seem a long shot for him to get back out there in week four, but Bernard has not been ruled out.

After logging almost 80% of the snaps in week one, Gregory Rousseau has seen his playing time drop over the last two games. He saw less than 60% of the action against Jacksonville. We can chalk this one up to the score and game script, but his lone tackle was still very disappointing. While it is starting to look like his huge week one was an outlier, I suggest hanging on for one more week before giving up.  

Guru's IDP Notes on Carolina

Quarterback was not the only position for the Panthers to see new faces in week three. Jordan Fuller landed on IR Tuesday with a hamstring injury. He was replaced by Nick Scott during the game, and Scott is the favorite to handle the position until Fuller returns.  

Other personnel notes include Josey Jewell falling below 70% participation. The team went with more nickel looks, putting Troy Hill in an expanded role. That ate into Jewel's playing time a bit, but rookie Trevin Wallace took a bigger bite, poaching eleven snaps in his first action of the season on defense.

The Panthers signed Charles Harris off the street ahead of week two. In week three, he started and had a 70% share of the playing time. His numbers were not eye-catching, but Harris is worth a spot on our watchlist in deeper formats.   

Mike Jackson turned in seven solo stops and a pass defended in the opener. In week three, he had nine, with an interception and three passes defended. While there was a slow week two in between, it is clear that opponents are targeting him often.

Guru's IDP Notes on Chicago

Darrell Taylor had a great first week, so what did the Bears do? They cut his snaps from 38 in week one to 27 in week two and 15 in week three.

Gervon Dexter Sr. had a sack in each of the first two games and five combined stops in week three. There is no shortage of playing time for him either as Dexter logged 88% versus the Colts. His numbers have not yet been flashy but they are solid and consistent at a position that is always thin.

Guru's IDP Notes on Cincinnati

The Cincinnati defense surrendered 38 points to a rookie quarterback, who led his team to points on every drive. This unit has been gutted by injuries on the interior line, and Jayden Daniels shredded their secondary. This is not the most talented group in general, but much of the responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who called a horrible game. That has little to do with the IDP game, but as a Bengals homer, I had to vent.

One fantasy-related note: Rookie Kris Jenkins Jr. returned to action after missing the first two games with a thumb injury. He debuted as the third man behind Zach Carter and Jay Tufele, but Jenkins could ascend quickly if B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins miss much more time due to their hamstring injuries. Keep an eye on this young man.  

Guru's IDP Notes on Cleveland

Myles Garrett went into week three with two sore feet. He went down late in the fourth but managed to finish the game, albeit with just one tackle on the stat sheet. Garrett will have an MRI this week and is considered day-to-day. Even if he plays this week, don't expect much from Garrett as he will not be anywhere near 100%. He has a history of playing through some painful injuries. He also has a history of poor production when doing so. Have a backup plan, and if it's a good one, use it.

Garrett was the only Cleveland edge defender to play more than 50% of the snaps in week three. If he sits, Ogbo Okoronkwo and Za'Darius Smith would be the starters.

Things are looking up for Jordan Hicks. His 5-3 mark in week three was respectable, but the more important point is that he's played more than 85% of the snaps in consecutive games.   

Guru's IDP Notes on Dallas

Is it too much to ask for a little consistency from the Dallas coaching staff? DeMarvion Overshown and Damone Clark seem to be taking turns from week to week. Overshown played 58% in week one, 31% in week two, and 78% of the snaps in week three. Clark's time has been 34%, 69%, and 19%. Either of these players would give us useful production if they got all the snaps, but Overshown has been the best on the field. The question is, does the coaching staff see it that way, and will it make a difference in their approach if they do?

Guru's IDP Notes on Denver

In possibly the biggest IDP news of the week, Alex Singleton suffered a torn ACL on Sunday and is lost for the season. That will force the team to give Cody Barton a bigger role. With Drew Sanders on IR and unlikely to be ready until late in the year at best, Justin Sternad is in line for the start this week. Denver added Kwon Alexander on Wednesday as well. He could/should push for playing time in short order once he is up to speed with the defense.  

Denver elected to place Baron Browning on IR, making Nik Bonitto a starter for at least four games. Bonitto stepped up in his first start, getting to Baker Mayfield for one of the team's seven sacks. That and his history as a starter for the first half of last season suggest he will be a good option for us over the next month or so.

Zach Allen was down late in the 4th quarter. He walked off and looked okay, but watch the practice reports just in case.

Guru's IDP Notes on Detroit

Alex Anzalone traveled with the Lions but did not clear concussion protocol in time to suit up against the Cardinals. He should be available for week four, which is a good thing for the Lions since they sent Derrick Barnes to IR with a knee injury. This is not how we wanted to see Jack Campbell move into the starting role, but he is there nonetheless. Campbell played every snap but was unimpressive in the box score at 2-3. Don't let that scare you off, though. This was a game script thing. Arizona ran the ball all of thirteen times. That said, the Seahawks might not be a significantly better matchup, at least not unless Ken Walker III returns. No linebacker has more than three solo stops against them in the last two games.

The loss of Barnes means a bigger role for Malcolm Rodriguez as well. He jumped up to 86% in week three but that was because Anzalone was out.

Barnes was not the only Lions starter to land on IR this week. He was joined by Alim McNeill (shoulder) and Marcus Davenport (elbow). The loss of McNeill means a bigger role for rookie Mekhi Wingo, while Davenport will be replaced by a platoon that includes Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike.

Brian Branch had a big game, going 6-3 with a pair of passes defended before leaving with a concussion. It looked like he was knocked out for a few seconds on the play, so his recovery could take a bit. Brandon Joseph covered the last few plays at free safety and could be in line to start versus Seattle. This would be a good time for the team to get Ifeatu Melifonwu back, but who knows if that is a possibility. The team is not giving us much information about him.

Guru's IDP Notes on Green Bay

The good news for those rostering Isaiah McDuffie is that he finally showed up solidly on the stat sheet (6-3-.5). The bad news is that it seems he is being phased out in favor of Edgerrin Cooper. McDuffie played 97% in week one, 89% in week two and 78% in week three. Meanwhile, Cooper had his biggest share to date in week three, at 33%.

Because he plays the deep safety role, Xavier McKinney is not making a lot of tackles. He does, however, have an interception in every game thus far. Javon Bullard was shut out against Tennessee, but there is nothing to panic about. He was on the field for all but five plays.

Guru's IDP Notes on Indianapolis

Injuries are piling up along the Colts' defensive line. They lost Samson Ebukam before the season started. Then it was DeForest Buckner, and in week three, Kwity Paye left the game late in the fourth with a quad injury. That leaves the team with three healthy players on the edge. Tyquan Lewis, Dayo Odeyingbo, and rookie Liatai Latu who recorded the sack that ended the game in the win over Chicago.

Last week I talked about  Kenny Moore II playing outside due to the JuJu Brents injury. He was back in the slot role to open the game on Sunday. Unfortunately, Dallis Flowers, who started on the outside, was injured, sending Moore back to the outside late in the game. Samuel Womack III is the next man up at corner but it is hard to say what the roles will be if Flowers is out.

Guru's IDP Notes on Jacksonville

When it rains, it pours for the Jaguars. They were embarrassed on the scoreboard by the Bills. Adding injury to insult, stud linebacker Foyesade Oluokun left the game with plantar fasciitis. His season is not over, but Oluokun could miss several weeks. The team is optimistic enough to keep him on the active roster, which is a good sign. It is unclear who will be the next man up. I'm leaning toward Chad Muma, but Ventrell Miller is listed as Oluokun's backup on their depth chart. Muma and Miller played a lot in the blowout loss so it was hard to get a read on how the team will play their cards.

The one sure beneficiary will be Devin Lloyd, who should take over the lead role. Interestingly, despite the presence of Lloyd and Oluokun, the Jaguars had no linebacker with more than 85% of the snaps in any of their first three games.

Guru's IDP Notes on Kansas City

Chamarri Conner turned in another big game in week three with ten tackles, including five solo and an interception. Unlike the first two weeks, when he did it on less than 60% of the snaps, Conner saw action on 82% against the Falcons. He is working in a similar role that made L'Jarius Sneed an IDP stud not so long ago. Conner's bump in playing time came at the expense of Leo Chenal, who worked on 14 snaps. It was one game, so it's hard to say if this will be a trend or simply a matchup-based game plan. That said, if Conner is still available, it might be a good idea to pick him up.

If you are sitting on George Karlaftis or Mike Danna, this would be a good week to roll them out. The Chargers offensive line is down two starters. Joe Alt has a sprained MCL, and Rashawn Slater is out with a pectoral. Not to mention that Justin Herbert aggravated his sprained ankle and will be a stationary target if he plays.

Guru's IDP Notes on Las Vegas

Tyree Wilson was back in action against Carolina. I'm not sure if he started, but his 34 snaps were second behind Maxx Crosby among the team's edge defenders. Wilson managed two solo tackles in his season debut. He could get into the sack column this week against a Cleveland offense that has allowed a league-high 16 sacks.   

Marcus Epps led the team with ten solo tackles before leaving with a torn ACL. Isaiah Pola-Mao was the next man up on Sunday and is likely to be the starter going forward.   

With Divine Diablo out, Luke Masterson started in the two-down role next to Robert Spillane.

Guru's IDP Notes on LA Chargers

Joey Bosa was beat up heading into week three. He lasted two snaps on Sunday before leaving with a hip injury. There has been no update from the team as of Wednesday morning, but at the least, his week four is in doubt. The loss of Bosa shortens the rotation. Tuli Tuipulotu should assume the starting role with Bud Dupree as the third man. Tuipulotu saw a lot of action as a rookie last year, starting twelve games and going 37-16-4.5 with 3 turnovers. He could prove to be a strong pickup if Bosa misses significant time.  

Junior Colson missed time in the offseason as he battled a hamstring injury. It flared up again in week two, causing him to miss week three and putting week four in doubt. With the third man sidelined, Daiyan Henley had a great day, posting 9-3 with a pass breakup while playing every snap. Denzel Perryman also got a boost, going 6-3 on 81%. Colston is not practicing this week, and with the team on bye in week five, he would have two weeks to heal if he sits, which is likely.  

Derwin James Jr. will have the week off compliments of the league office. He received a one-game suspension for repeated violations of league safety rules. Elijah Moore should get the start.

Guru's IDP Notes on Miami

With two tackles on 48 plays, David Long Jr. was not having a good game against Seattle even before leaving with a hamstring injury. He was replaced by Anthony Walker Jr. who was 2-2 on 16 plays. The Dolphins have not yet updated Long's status but he will likely miss practice all week and be at least questionable for week four. Walker could be a decent add if Long misses time.

 Jordyn Brooks didn't exactly step up big in Long's absence, but he did manage a season-best of nine combined stops. While three tackles and six assists are modest numbers, Brooks has improved each week and has been on the field for every defensive snap.  

Guru's IDP Notes on Minnesota

Ivan Pace Jr. was a surprise inactive after coming up lame with quad and ankle injuries late in the week. Kamu Grugier-Hill got the call over Brian Asamoah II as the second LB, but he only played 21 snaps. The team returned to last year's approach, featuring three safeties on 78% of the plays. Camryn Bynum and Joshua Metellus played every snap with Harrison Smith getting 78%.

Jonathan Greenard went 3-1-3 against the Vikings, reminding us not to overlook a chance to play a good player when facing his former team.

Guru's IDP Notes on New England

The Patriots put Ja'Whaun Bentley on IR last week. The team filled the void by moving Jahlani Tavai into the lead/every-down role. He responded well, going 6-4 on 100% participation. Raekwon McMillan took over the complimentary two-down role and also put up solid numbers a 6-4, but he did it on 20 fewer plays. I am seeing a lot of managers pick up McMillan, which is not a bad thing unless Tavai is also available. McMillan will probably give us some good weeks, but Tavai is the safe and consistent addition.

Jibril Peppers left early with an ankle injury. If he is unable to go, Jaylinn Hawkins will get the call.

Guru's IDP Notes on New Orleans

The time has come to move on Bryan Bresee. He came into the league with big expectations in 2022 and showed signs of being special. If his last two games are an indication, Bresee has arrived. He totaled 4-0-3 with a forced fumble over those two games.  

Guru's IDP Notes on NY Giants

Dru Phillips was a hot waiver addition last week after two good outings. He left Sunday's game in the first quarter with a calf injury and is not practicing early this week. With Phillips out, Cor'Dale Flott stepped up, going 7-2 against Cleveland. I have much more confidence in Phillips than Flott as a long-term contributor for us. The fact that he has not landed on IR is a positive for Phillips. Hopefully, he will be able to practice late in the week.

When I saw Bobby Okereke's stat line of 1-7-.5, my first reaction was to wonder what was going on with him. In three games with 100% participation, he is 7-12-1.5 with a recovery. His point totals have not been horrible, thanks to the splash plays, but this guy has three consecutive seasons with 90+ solo tackles and 50+ assists. The good news is that he has been on the field for every snap. I can't say where the tackles have gone, but I'm confident he will find them.

Tyler Nubin gave us another head-scratcher with a near goose egg versus the Browns, despite 100% participation. At least this one is easier to explain. The Cleveland offense was horrible. The running game produced 42 yards on 12 carries, and Deshaun Watson completed 21 passes. In Nubin's defense, it's hard to be productive when the ball carrier never gets to you. He should be fine with four good matchups in a row on the schedule.

Guru's IDP Notes on NY Jets

The Jets' safeties are a moving target. We got a huge game from Tony Adams in week one but he has been invisible over the last two. Chuck Clark had seven tackles and two assists heading into week three. He posted his best tackle stats to date against the Patriots with seven combined stops, adding a sack and two turnovers.

What we have here is a case of the team not designating either player as strong or free safety. It looks like they are playing more of a right and left, but that does not necessarily happen in every play. Whatever their keys are, the result is that Clark and Adams have alternating responsibilities, likely based on offensive formation and defensive play call. It might be a coincidence that Clark has spent more time in the box over the last two games. Then again, it could be the start of a useful trend.

 Will McDonald IV answered the bell with a sack and a half after being thrust into the starting role in week three. He has room for improvement versus the run, but he was not horrible in that aspect, either. With five sacks in two games, who needs tackles anyway? The only concern here is playing time. McDonald saw the most action of the team's edge defenders in week three, but it was still short of 60%.  

With three solo stops and a good snap count in each of the first two games, Javon Kinlaw was looking pretty good. When he showed up with a sack against the Patriots in week three, his stock was on the rise. Then the snap count summary came out after Thursday's game, and the bubble popped. After seeing well over half of the action in the previous two games, Kinlaw had the lowest participation rate among the five interior linemen who saw action. Sixteen plays will not get it done.

Guru's IDP Notes on Pittsburgh

Alex Highsmith was nursing a sore groin going into week three. After aggravating the injury, he is expected to miss a few weeks. Highsmith has not been placed on IR but said on Monday that he will not be back until he is 100% healthy. That opens the door for last year's fourth-round pick, Nick Herbig. All Herbig did against the Chargers was go 3-0-2 with a forced fumble on a mere 19 snaps. It's hard to say how long Highsmith will be out, but I expect he will heal a lot faster if Herbig continues to produce like that.

Guru's IDP Notes on San Francisco

When we see a stud like Fred Warner post a stat line of 1-3 and a pass defended, the first thing that usually goes through our minds is, was he injured? If you caught last week's edition of The Guru and the Godfather, which comes out on Fridays, this one might not have been such a shocker. The bottom line is that there is nothing to see here but a bad matchup and an ugly game script. Warner is fine and should bounce back this week, even though the Patriots are not a great matchup either.

Javon Hargrave will miss the rest of the season with a triceps injury. Jordan Elliott should step into the starting spot, with Kevin Givens as the third man.  

Guru's IDP Notes on Seattle

The Seahawks are beat up on the interior line. Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams were out before the first quarter ended on Sunday. Murphy has a hamstring issue, while Williams took a shot to the ribs. As of Wednesday afternoon, there has been no update or speculation on their availability for week four.  

Jerome Baker was questionable for week three and did not play due to his sore hamstring. The fact that he was questionable leaves room for optimism about his availability for week four. In Baker's absence, Tyrice Knight got the start and put up a decent 5-1. The important note is that Knight did not have the position to himself. Instead, he shared time with Drake Thomas, who got roughly a third of the snaps.

The Seattle defense held Miami to three points and is becoming one of this season's big surprises. Helping them get there is an emerging Derick Hall. The second-year man had a sack in the opener while on the field for a little less than half of the defensive plays. The coaching staff must have liked what they saw since Hall has been over 65% in each of the last two. The Dolphins are a mess right now so we should consider that, but we can't overlook Hall going 4-1-2 with a forced fumble. The big issue with Seattle linemen in the past has been the mass rotation they like to use. There is a major drop-off from the starters to the rest of the depth chart. That could mean enough playing time for Hall and Boye Mafe to be major factors.  

Guru's IDP Notes on Tampa Bay

Christian Izien stood in for the injured Antoine Winfield Jr. over the last two games and has put up Winfield-like numbers. In those outings, Izien is a combined 11-7-0 with an interception and 2 pass breakups. The party could be over soon for Izien as Winfield returned to the practice field on a limited basis Wednesday. Winfield still has a long way to go so Izien could get one more hurrah before going back to his normal duties as the slot defender.

K.J. Britt and SirVocea Dennis continue to split playing time equally.

Guru's IDP Notes on Tennessee

It didn't take long for Ernest Jones IV to settle in after the late trade to Tennessee. The Titans still have some holes but the linebacker position is no longer among them. Jones and Kenneth Murray Jr. could prove to be a perfect fit here. Jones has the coverage skills, which was a weakness for Murray, and Murray is a physical run stuffer who can now be turned loose to blitz. The result against the Packers was a mark of 10-3-0 for Jones and 5-3-2 for Murray. This arrangement also allows both players to stay on the field full-time.  

Jeffrey Simmons came out of week three with an elbow injury. Monitor his practice participation this week. If he misses time, Sebastian Joseph-Day and Keondre Coburn should see increased roles.

Guru's IDP Notes on Washington

The good news for Jeremy Chinn is that week three was his most productive of the season to date. The bad news is that he totaled all of four tackles. At least now, after getting a good look at the Commanders' defense on Monday night, I know why he is so disappointing. The Commanders are playing a lot of two deep zone. That means both safeties are way off the ball, making it hard to get involved in run support. This also explains why Benjamin St-Juste has been so productive. In cover two, the strong side corner usually plays near the line in press coverage and has a big role in run support.

That is going to do it for the week four offering. Best of luck on the waiver wire and in this week's games.

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