The studying, speculating, and roster building are over, and there is not much more we can do to prepare for week one. All that's left is to sit back and enjoy some football while we get answers to many/most of our open questions. Week one always gives us a few new questions as well, so make no mistake: The first two weeks and how we adapt to the surprises they bring will be instrumental to winning our leagues.
Guru's Notes on Arizona
As we head into week one, the Cardinals' defense has two questions with possible IDP implications. The first is, where will the pass rush come from? Zaven Collins and Dennis Gardeck are set to start on the edge. Neither of those players will strike fear into opponents because neither has ever recorded more than seven sacks in a season.
It is painfully unlikely that we will get any useful help from Arizona's edge positions but there is at least some potential that we could find a little value at their second inside linebacker spot. We can comfortably expect good numbers from Kyzir White but his partner on the inside remains sketchy. Mack Wilson has worked with the starters all summer and is set to open the season with the job, but will he be on the field enough to make an impact in the box scores or will the Cardinals use a big nickel to get rookie safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson on the field?
Guru's Notes on Atlanta
The Falcons made a ton of changes over the offseason so there is much to watch for at all three levels of the defense. Will we see the same Matthew Judon who combined for 27 sacks in 2021 and 2022, or will the curse of the Falcons make him a marginal starter going forward? Will Justin Simmon's production in the box scores finally match his impact on the field?
The most impactful answer will likely come at the linebacker position, where we will finally see if Troy Andersen gets the start as anticipated. Can he live up to the lofty expectations many of us had before last year's injury.
Guru's Notes on Baltimore
We are looking for the Ravens to show us three things. Was last year's breakout by Justin Madibuike a coming-out party or simply one standout season? Can Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo be the next generation of excellent edge defenders? And can Trenton Simpson be as productive as Patrick Queen was last year, in the shadow of Roquan Smith? We should be able to get a good feel for the Simpson question from this week's game. It will take a little longer for a full review of the other two.
Guru's Notes on Buffalo
The Bills lost some starters to free agency but it is their injury situations that we need to pay the most attention to early in the season. Matt Milano was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return. With a torn biceps, this will not be a short stay for Milano. If he is able to return at all, it is unlikely to be before December.
Dorian Williams will get the first shot at replacing Milano. He got the first shot when Milano was lost last October as well, but Williams was not able to keep the job. He was on the bench at the end of the season while the starter was a guy the team signed off his couch late in the year. Chances are, Williams has already been snapped up. What we need to see is how well he plays. If last year's experience was not enough to make him a better player, Williams may be looking over his shoulder at Nick Morrow.
The other watch list situation is at safety. Longtime starters Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are gone while rookie Cole Bishop and free agent addition Mike Edwards missed a lot of time over the summer with injuries. Buffalo's current unofficial depth chart, has Taylor Rapp at strong safety and Demar Hamlin at free.
Guru's Notes on Carolina
The Panthers' defense is hardly swelling with talent or depth. That makes the loss of D.J. Wonnum a big one. Wonnum will open the season on the PUP, so he'll miss at least four games with a sore knee. While he is out, DJ Johnson will have an opportunity to impress.
Carolina will also be without corner Dane Jackson for a while. Veteran Mike Jackson is expected to get the call until Jackson is ready.
Guru's Notes on Chicago
There are two players to watch in Chicago, both in the secondary. Kevin Byard has been highly productive over his eight years in the league. We will now find out if he can continue to produce with a different team. It has been a minute since a Chicago free safety was an IDP factor, but the Bears have not had a player of Byard's potential for a long time.
While I feel pretty good about Byard's chances, the Bear I'm most interested in seeing is Kyler Gordon. Gordon could be an excellent addition for us if he continues to show up like he did in limited preseason action. He impressed all summer and is working in an aggressive nickel role, similar to the ones that have given us outstanding value in recent years.
Guru's Notes on Cincinnati
Myles Murphy will miss the start of the season with a sprained knee that landed him on the PUP list. That leaves the Bengals a little thin on the edge but they are expected to have both starters. Sam Hubbard remains questionable on the injury report with his sore knee but he has been practicing.
There is some debate about what the Bengals starting secondary will look like. Many experts and depth charts have Vonn Bell starting at strong safety over Jordan Battle while others still have Battle as the starter. The team's unofficial depth chart, which I believe to be correct, has Bell at the position. On the other hand, their depth chart still shows DJ Turner ahead of Dax Hill for the outside corner role, even though the team has announced that Hill won that job. The bottom line here is to stay away from these guys until there is clarity.
Guru's Notes on Cleveland
The only question we need to be answered by the Browns, is if they will deploy a three-down linebacker this year, and if they do will it be Jordan Hicks or Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah? Hicks has been questionable with an undisclosed injury over the last few weeks but he practiced on Monday which is a good sign.
Guru's Notes on Dallas
Eric Kendricks is the clear No. 1 linebacker for the Cowboys. DeMarvion Overshown is expected to hold the other starting spot, having moved ahead of Damone Clark early in the offseason. Last year's Cowboys used safety Markquese Bell as a linebacker but he has been moved back to safety. So will there be a second linebacker in nickel situations this year, and if so, will it make Overshown an IDP factor? We should know by Monday.
Guru's Notes on Denver
The theme of watching for linebacker roles continues with the Broncos. Cody Barton is set to start next to Alex Singleton with Justin Strnad as the only healthy backup on the roster. Denver pulled Josey Jewell in sub-package situations last year. I expect they will take Barton off of the field in those situations as well. We should be able to confirm one way or another after the week one game.
Guru's Notes on Detroit
Ifeatu Melifonwu has been the subject of much conversation over the offseason. It started with his unclear role but has now shifted to the mysterious injury he suffered in the second preseason game. There has still been no official word on the nature of the injury, but it is believed to be an ankle or heel issue. What we do know is that Melifonwu's availability for week one and his role when healthy remain in question.
The Lions have not yet confirmed that second-year linebacker Jack Campbell will be on the field full time but there is reason to be optimistic. The Melifonwu situation is one good sign for Campbell. Another is the shift of Derrick Barnes to Strongside linebacker. Last year, Barnes and Campbell shared time as the second linebacker in two backer packages with Malcolm Rodriguez getting on the field in some three LB groupings.
Guru's Notes on Green Bay
There are a lot of IDP managers out there hoping for big things from rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. Those in dynasty formats will need to exercise patience. Those in redraft leagues may not have that luxury. A nagging injury kept Cooper from earning a starting job in the offseason, leaving him behind Isaiah McDuffie and Eric Wilson on the eve of week one. With the Packers shifting to a 4-3 scheme, we will have to see how the playing time breaks down, but it is anticipated that McDuffie and Quay Walker could be on the field virtually full-time.
There is some unknown at the safety position as well. Xavier McKinney is locked in as one starter with rookie Javon Bullard expected to hold the other spot. Green Bay has given us nothing definitive here. What we do know is that Bullard has been seeing most of the first-team work recently, after being banged up earlier in training camp. Both players have the versatility to play either safety spot so this one will be high on the watch list.
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Guru's Notes on Houston
Henry To'oTo'o had his shot at a three-down role last year. Coverage struggles caused him to fall out of favor and eventually be bumped down the depth chart to a limited role on the strong side. With Christian Harris on IR, To'oTo'o could get a second shot at a major role. His biggest competition for playing time opposite Azeez Al-Shaair would come from Neville Hewitt or Jake Hansen. That said, Harris is expected to return, likely before the end of October, so don't get too excited about anything that happens in week one.
Jalen Pitre had a monster rookie season as the Texans' strong safety in 2022. He was moved to free safety last year and the numbers all but vanished. Pitre moved back to strong safety this summer, which should mean a return to useful production. That said, this is a much better Texans defense than the one Pitre played in as a rookie, so temper expectations appropriately.
Guru's Notes on Indianapolis
With edge defender Samson Ebukam on IR, the door is open for someone to step up. Rookie Laiatu Latu or Dayo Odeyingbo would seem to be the lead candidates, but the Colts have promoted Tyquan Lewis to the title of starter. Lewis has 13.5 career sacks over six years with the team, so this one is a real head-scratcher. Lewis may see the early down action but look for Latu and Odeyingbo to have significant roles, especially in passing situations.
Nick Cross has settled into the free safety role, making Julian Blackmon a safe play for us at strong safety.
Guru's Notes on Jacksonville
Do you need help at safety or have an open roster spot to fill before week one? Take a look at Andre Cisco. He has been the Jaguars free safety since coming into the league in 2021. Cisco showed flashes of quality fantasy production over the last three years but lacked consistency. This was partly due to nagging injuries but had more to do with the responsibilities and limited opportunities of the deep safety position. With the signing of Darnell Savage, the Jaguars moved Cisco to strong safety. He is a proven playmaker with eight turnovers in the last two seasons and has never been afraid to support the run. The change of position could make Cisco a significant contributor for us.
Guru's Notes on LA Chargers
The intrigue surrounding the Chargers is focused on the linebacker position, where Daiyan Henley and Denzel Perryman are expected to open the season as the starters. Henley is a probable long-term answer for the team, while Perryman is likely keeping the seat warm for rookie Junior Colson until he recovers from having his appendix removed. Colson was back on the field in mid-August and is expected to be available for week one, but he will not be rushed back. The time missed may have put Colson behind on the learning curve, but he should find his way into the lineup before long.
Guru's Notes on LA Rams
In one of the most surprising moves of the preseason, the Rams sent Ernest Jones to Tennessee in a trade. Why would a team ship out their best young linebacker just a couple of weeks before the start of the season? There is undoubtedly more to this story than those outside the organization will ever know.
It is unclear what the team's plan is here. Christian Rozeboom is the favorite to take over as the three-down linebacker, at least for the time being. He was a starter last season but came off the field in most passing situations.
According to the team's depth chart, Troy Reeder is the next man up. He saw time as a starter during his first stint with the Rams from 2019 through the 2021 season. Reeder is a dependable veteran who can hold down the fort, but there is no upside, and he is not a long-term answer.
There is speculation that the emergence of undrafted rookie Omar Speights had a lot to do with the willingness to move Jones. Speights has been a standout from the first time he set foot on the field and is generating excitement. A few days before roster cuts were announced, Rams general manager Les Snead told us that Speights had made the team and would be active on game days. He is sure to see time on special teams and there is a chance he could be in the defensive lineup soon.
Guru's Notes on Miami
The Dolphins have given us some decent IDP options over the past few years, but there have been no stars from this unit recently. With a good amount of personnel turnover from last year's team, additions like Jordyn Brooks and Jordan Poyer will soon tell us if Jerome Baker and Brandon Jones were simply not as good as we thought they were or were held back by the scheme. My money is on the latter.
Guru's Notes on Minnesota
Anyone with Ivan Pace, Blake Cashman, or Josh Metellus should be watching intently when the Vikings face the Giants on Sunday. The 2023 Vikings played a big nickel base defense with three safeties on the field full-time. Metellus prospered as the third safety/nickel linebacker, while Jordan Hicks played full-time at linebacker when he was healthy, and Pace held a two-down role much of the time. There is no way to know if the new coaching staff will continue down that path.
When Hicks signed in Cleveland, many IDP managers saw it as a sign of great things to come for Pace. Then the organization added Cashman, and the coaching staff gave him the green dot helmet that comes with every-down role. Until we see the team in action, there is no way to know for sure if the plan is to roll with two every-down backers or keep rolling out Metellus in a near full-time role. This whole situation should be avoided until we can get a better read.
Guru's Notes on New England
The trade of Matt Judon to Atlanta was unexpected but it made sense. The Patriots are not in a position to win this year. By the time they get there again, Judon's contract will be up, so why not get something for him by sending the veteran to a team that hopes to be a contender. It is the ripple effect of the trade that could have fantasy implications.
With Judon gone, the Patriots are thin at the edge position. Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings are the players New England is expected to lean on. Jennings has played enough for us to know he is unlikely to excel in the box scores. For Uche, the story is different. He had an opportunity to start in the second half of 2022. Over an eight-game span that year, Uche totaled 11.5 sacks. Despite his stellar production, his role shriveled up to almost nothing in 2023.
Guru's Notes on NY Giants
Tyler Nubin missed some time during camp and Dane Belton would not give up the starting safety job without a fight. Nubin, however, has been seeing action with the starters since the third week of preseason games. The Giants have not yet officially named a starter but the word is that Nubin is seeing more and more time with the first team over the last two-plus weeks.
While Nubin is all but certain to start at some point, Belton has likely earned a role as well. The Giants have used big nickel packages recently. With their current roster makeup, they could benefit by doing so again.
One young player who caught my eye during the preseason is linebacker Dyontae Johnson. He will open the season as the top backup at both inside positions, but if this young man gets a chance to play, they might not be able to take him off the field.
Guru's Notes on NY Jets
Chuck Clark is a player I have picked up in the last rounds of some drafts this year. He missed all of last season with an injury but has the potential to be highly productive. From 2019 through 2022, Clark managed borderline useful numbers with a Ravens team that made it hard for safeties to excel on the stat sheet. I have a feeling he will be on a lot of rosters by week three.
Managers in tackle-required formats might want to put Javon Kinlaw on your watch list. The change of scenery has been good for the former first-round pick.
Guru's Notes on Philadelphia
The Eagles defense will have six new starters in 2024. The biggest surprise among them is Zack Baun, who held off Nakobe Dean and Jeremiah Trotter Jr. for the job next to Devin White. I am still nervous that the team will use some sort of ugly rotation to keep all four guys involved.
Bryce Huff is expected to start on the edge in week one but could be on a fairly short leash early in the year. Huff has been disappointing over the offseason. If he doesn't pick it up, the Eagles could lean harder on 36-year-old Brandon Graham and/or rookie Jalyx Hunt.
With James Bradberry on IR and Sydney Brown on the PUP list, the Eagles have moved Avonte Maddox to safety. Considering C.J. Gardner-Johnson's injury history, this is good to know. That said, rookie Cooper DeJean impressed in the final preseason game. Don't be surprised if he sees time at safety if there is an injury.
Guru's Notes on San Francisco
Contract situations for offensive players are grabbing the headlines in San Francisco, so no one is talking about how beaten up this defense is to enter the season. Three of their five edge defenders are questionable or worse, including starter Leonard Floyd. Dre Greenlaw is on the PUP but could miss a lot more than four games, and George Odum could make the start in week one with Talanoa Hufanga working through a sore knee. Even Fred Warner is showing up on the practice report with a sore foot, though he said the injury is not serious.
Guru's Notes on Seattle
Jerome Baker could miss week one with a hamstring injury. Coach Macdonald told reporters that Tyrice Knight would get the start if Baker is not ready. Knight was a tackling machine at UTEP, and Seattle linebackers have produced several 90+ solo tackle seasons over the last ten years.
With the trade of Darrell Taylor to Chicago and Uchenna Nwosu out with a sprained MCL, the Seahawks signed Tyus Bowser to replenish the depth chart.
Guru's Notes on Tampa Bay
I was among the first to jump on the YaYa Diaby bandwagon at the end of last season. It's getting crowded there now as a lot of managers are expecting big things from him. Be patient if he gets off to a slow start, though. Diaby missed about a month of practice, including the entire preseason, while recovering from a high ankle sprain. He returned to practice this week and might be available for week one, but he could be limited or on a pitch count for a game or two.
Guru's Notes on Tennessee
Throughout most of the fantasy draft season, Kenneth Murray was the Titans' top linebacker target for IDP managers. The trade for Ernest Jones could throw a wrench into that. There is a chance the team will keep both linebackers on the field full time, but it's noteworthy that they did not have two full-time backers last season. There were games that they didn't even have one. Jones is likely the better of the two in terms of coverage, which should give him the edge on passing downs.
Guru's Notes on Washington
There are two Commanders defenders I am excited to see this week. Safety Jeremy Chinn is my preseason pick for IDP comeback player of the year. The other guy I like is Dorance Armstrong, who is flying under the radar in most leagues. Since coming into the league, Armstrong's pre-snap production has been right up there with the top-shelf fantasy options. This will be his first opportunity as a three-down starter.
That does it for the offseason. When the next EOTG comes out we will have much more concrete info to go on. Until then, best of luck in week one as we all try to get off to a fast start.
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