Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 29: Dallas Cowboys

Overview

The Cowboys did not play great defense in 2023, but they were good. They allowed the fifth-fewest yards through the air, had the fourth-lowest completion percentage, and were tenth in plays of 20+ yards. Dallas ranked eighth with 17 interceptions, and their 46 sacks were more than respectable. The run defense was a little less successful but was in the top half of the league in all the main categories. They gave up the sixteenth most yards, ranked fifteenth in yards per carry, and were eleventh in runs of 20+. The Cowboys tied for twelfth with 27 turnovers while, in the category most significant to wins and losses, they surrendered the fifth-fewest points.

The organization must have been content with last year's performance, at least from a personnel perspective. The team's most important change was at defensive coordinator, where Mike Zimmer will take over. The rest of their offseason attention to that side of the ball amounts to a second-round edge defender and a pair of third-day guys in the draft, with one significant free-agent move.

The good news for the organization is that the starting unit returns virtually intact. The bad news is their depth was depleted in free agency. That could be a plus for IDP managers with more time on the field for some players, but it could also leave the Cowboys vulnerable. The move to Zimmer could also help on the IDP side. From his first stint in Dallas to six seasons as the Bengals DC and eight as the head coach in Minnesota, Zimmer's defenses have been strong and have given us a slew of quality fantasy options.

Defensive Linemen

Micah Parsons is the face of the Dallas defense, or at least he is the most recognizable name. He is a rare example of a young pass rusher who needed no transition time between college and the NFL. As a rookie in 2021, Parsons split time between off-ball linebacker and edge. The dual role helped him rack up 64 tackles, 19 assists, 13 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. His tackle numbers slipped in year two when Parsons saw less action at linebacker, and they are probably not coming back. His 2022 numbers of 42-23-13 with 6 turnovers were good enough for a seventh-place finish among edge defenders.

His solo stops were down a little last year, but the combined tackles were nearly equal. At 36-28-14 with a pair of turnovers, Parsons was back in the top ten. We may never see another 50 solo tackle seasons from him, but Parsons is 25 years old and has just entered the prime of his career. He is just short of elite-tier consideration but is a safe bet for another top-ten finish.  

DeMarcus Lawrence is entering season eleven with the Cowboys and has been a starter since 2015. He was a solid, three-down defensive end for much of his career, but his role has evolved recently. There was a point when it looked like Lawrence might become one of the elite. His best season was in 2017, when Lawrence put up 58 combined tackles, 15 sacks, and 6 takeaways. He followed that with a mark of 42-21-10 and 4 more turnovers in 2018. Unfortunately, Lawrence has no more than six sacks in any season since.

Over the past few years, the Cowboys have been using an edge rotation that has Lawrence working on early downs but heading to the sideline in a lot of passing situations. That approach limited him to 612 plays in 2023, resulting in the lowest production of his career in a non-injury season. Dorance Armstrong and Donte Fowler are gone, but don't count on Lawrence getting significantly more playing time. The plan is to give Sam Williams more playing time and have rookie second-round pick Marshawn Kneeland step into the rotation as well.

Lawrence is 32 years old and in the final year of his contract. That could mean Williams and Kneeland are auditioning to be next year's starter. Williams was the team's second-round pick in 2022. He has seen limited action over his two seasons. Williams has 576 snaps as a pro, totaling 30-18-8 with 5 turnovers. With a bigger role, he could become an IDP factor.

Kneeland comes out of college with a similar scouting report to Williams. He has a great motor and the physical tools to become a good starter but needs more sand in his pants to hold up as a point-of-attack defender versus the run. Kneeland has strong hands and gains separation to make plays but can be pushed around at times. He is bigger than Williams and has the frame to add more muscle, so with a year or two of experience and weight room work, Kneeland could make a good three-down starter.

His college production was not exactly impressive. As a three-year starter for Western Michigan, Kneeland totaled 126 combined stops with 13 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in 32 games. Chances are, he will be worked in on passing downs in 2024. There may not be much short-term value, but Kneeland is a good taxi candidate for dynasty managers.  

The Cowboys rotated five players at the tackle positions last year. Osa Odighizuwa logged the most playing time at 647 snaps, while no one else played more than 351. Odighizuwa was also the closest thing to an IDP contributor among this group. It was an odd season for him, though. He came out of the gate on fire with six tackles and three sacks in the first two games. Then came a face plant that saw Odighizuwa fail to record another sack all season. He continued to make some contributions in the tackle columns, but that eventually dried up also. He recorded no solo stops over the final four games.

The virtual vanishing act might be attributed to a combination of things. There is speculation that some of the Dallas defenders wore down late in the year. Some blame the scheme, and then there is the shoulder injury that Odighizuwa has been nursing in the off-season.

With a final mark of 26-20-3, Odighizuwa ranked 39th among interior linemen last year. Well out of the realm of usefulness to IDP managers. However, he was sitting at number 25 heading into week fourteen. He is a talented player who holds up well versus the run and is capable of better numbers as a pass rusher. The move to Mike Zimmer as coordinator might be the spark that lights the fire. Zimmer has given us some highly productive interior linemen over the years, and he's not afraid to keep his best players on the field.

The Cowboys used a first-round pick on Mazi Smith last year. He was not much of a factor as a rookie, at least partly due to a bum shoulder that was surgically repaired after the season. With Neville Gallimore and Johnathan Hankins gone, the team will rely heavily on the second-year man to step up.  

Smith is quick and athletic for a man who is six foot three and 337 pounds, but he is going to see a lot of double teams as the one-technique tackle. This will not be new to him after dealing with the same thing as a two-year starter at Michigan. Like many that play the position, Smith's contributions on the field are not likely to show up big on the stat sheet. In 28 games for the Wolverines, he averaged barely over three combined tackles per game and had half a sack.

• Edge Micah Parsons – Strong edge1 with elite tier potential
• Edge Demarcus Lawrence – Depth with a limited ceiling  
• Edge Marshawn Kneeland – Dynasty target
• Edge Sam Williams – Sleeper with second-starter upside
• Edge Viliami Fehoko – No impact
• DT Mazi Smith – Marginal IDP value at best
• DT Osa Odighizuwa – DT2 potential
• DT Chauncey Golston – No impact
• DT Carl Davis – No impact
• DT Justin Rogers – Developmental rookie
• DT Denzel Daxon – No impact

Linebackers

Linebacker has been a position of need for Dallas over the last few years. It was never more clear than last year when Leighton Vander Esch went down in week five, and they turned to a backup safety to fill the void. One other interesting note: Vander Esch is the only Dallas linebacker to play every snap in a game since 2020, and the only time he did so was at the start of last season. That should change in 2024.

The Cowboys made their one big free-agent signing count with the addition of Eric Kendricks. Not only is he a proven veteran with nine years of starting experience, but seven of those years were under Zimmer in Minnesota. Kendricks is a three-down middle backer who knows the scheme well and will be like a coach on the field for what is a rather young unit.

Kendricks has never been an elite option for fantasy managers but is always a dependable third starter or better. He has several top-20 finishes and has broken into the top twelve on occasion. Kendrick has at least 106 combined stops in eight consecutive seasons, with a career-best of 87 solos in 2022 and a career-best of 141 combined in 2021. He doesn't make a lot of big plays but will contribute in that area as well, with 17 sacks and 19 turnovers on his resume'. There is a slim chance of him breaking into the LB1 conversation, but it is a safe bet that he will be a three-down player and at least a priority LB3.

Zimmer's defenses usually feature two full-time linebackers. Dallas could go from no IDP options last season to two in 2024. The battle to determine who the second one might be could be interesting. Damone Clark started in the middle for the team last year but is a natural at the weak side position. The problem for Clark is that DeMarvion Overshown is the favorite for that spot. As the team's third-round pick last year, Overshown was turning heads and headed for a starting job when he tore his ACL in an August pre-season game.

As a former safety turned linebacker, Overshown is smaller and faster with better cover skills than any of the team's other options at linebacker. He was a productive, three-year starter at Texas, posting good tackle totals along with 9 takeaways and 17 pass breakups after transitioning to the new position. We need to keep close tabs on this key training camp battle. If he is fully recovered, the job likely goes to Overshown, with the bigger Clark kicking into a part-time role on the strong side.  

Kendricks is the man in the middle for now but he is 32 years old and playing on a one-year contract. The organization hopes to be prepared for the future with the selection of Marist Liufau in this year's draft. He is not as physical as some middle backers and tends to be a little impatient, which can get him in trouble, but a year behind Kendricks could go a long way toward fixing those issues.  

• MLB Eric Kendricks – LB3 floor with a high LB2 ceiling
• WLB DeMarvion Overshown – Sleeper with breakout potential
• SLB Damone Clark – Longshot, but could be productive if he wins the competition
• SLB Buddy Johnson – No impact
• MLB Marist Liufau – Dynasty target.

Defensive Backs

DaRon Bland was the fantasy game's top corner in 2023 by a whopping 42 points. That will make him the first corner off the board in most leagues this year. If he is not on the board in the last five rounds of your draft, let someone else have him. Lightening never strikes the same place twice and defensive backs never lead the league in interception two years in a row, much less score five touchdowns.

Bland had a season for the ages and is a good NFL corner but his chances of a repeat are about as good as winning the lottery two weeks in a row. His 53 tackles and 16 assists are repeatable, as are the 15 passes defended. Put those numbers with the 5 interceptions he recorded as a rookie in 2022, and you still get a solid CB1.

Bland is not the only Dallas corner to have a season like that in recent years. Trevon Diggs is a great example of what I am talking about. He recorded 49 tackles, 9 assists, 3 interceptions, and 14 pass breakups as a rookie in 2020. In year two, digs went off for 43-9 with 11 picks, 21 passes defended, and 2 scores, to lead all corners by a wide margin. In 2022, he fell back to earth with a thud at 50-9 with 3 picks and 14 pass breakups.

Diggs spent most of last season on IR with an ACL injury and opened training camp on the PUP. At a position so reliant on speed and change of direction, he will have to be close to 100% before getting back on the field. Once he is there, the Cowboys will have a starting tandem to rival any in the league, but it might be a while before we see it.

With Stephon Gilmore gone and Diggs on the mend, Bland is set to open as the team's lead corner. Jourdan Lewis returns and will continue as the slot defender, but there could be an open competition to fill the other corner spot until Diggs is ready. Nahshon Wright, C.J. Goodwin, and Eric Scott could all have their names in the hat but the most interesting possibility here is Gareon Conley. The 2017 first-round pick of the Raiders spent the last four years in the UFL before signing with Dallas. It will be interesting to see if his comeback is successful.

Strong safety Donovan Wilson was 77-24-5 with 4 turnovers and a top-twelve finish in 2022. That is a major outlier in his five NFL seasons but there is a clear reason why. He couldn't make plays from the sideline. In 2022, Wilson was on the field for over 950 plays. He has seen no more than 732 in any other year. That should change in 2024.

Jayron Kearse is gone and Malik Hooker is set to be the free safety. That should put Wilson in the strong safety position full-time. The only competition for the job could come from Markquese Bell who was a backup before the desperation move to linebacker last year.

For an idea of what we might get from Wilson this year. We can look back at Harrison Smith's 2021 season under Coach Zimmer. All Smith did was put up 83-31-3 with a couple of turnovers and seven passes defended. Granted, Wilson is not Harrison Smith, but there are plenty of similarities between the two. Wilson is not getting much attention in early drafts. Put him on your list as a late-round backup, but don't be shocked if you can't keep him out of your lineup once the season starts.

Zimmer's defenses usually feature a single-high safety who lines up deep to clean up loose ends. Hooker should be that guy in Dallas. The nature of the position makes it unfriendly to box score production. Hooker has not been very productive when placed in better situations, so there is no reason to expect much from him.

• SS Donovan Wilson – Sleeper with second-starter potential
• FS Malik Hooker – No impact
• SS Markquese Bell – Deep/injury sleeper
• SS Israel Mukuamu –  No impact
• FS Juaneh Thomas – No impact
• CB Trevon Diggs – Recovering from ACL injury
• CB DaRon Bland – High upside CB1
• CB Jourdan Lewis – Marginal value
• CB Nashon Wright – No impact
• CB Caelan Carson – No impact
• CB Gareon Conley – Watchlist player

The sprint to the finish is on with the Giants up next.     

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