Dynasty Trading Post: High-Leverage Running Backs

Chad Parsons analyzes the dynasty trading market for strategy, target players, and team-building concepts.

Chad Parsons's Dynasty Trading Post: High-Leverage Running Backs Chad Parsons Published 11/27/2024

Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly with examples and completed dynasty trades.

This week, we'll focus on the trade market for high-variance running backs Jonathon Brooks and Christian McCaffrey.

All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise

© Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina

Jonathon Brooks' debut in Week 12 was as quiet as a mouse, with a mere five snaps and no impact on Chuba Hubbard's lead role. Brooks is a fascinating case study of how the general fantasy and dynasty crowd acknowledged 2024 was likely a lost season for Brooks due to a significant knee injury late last season. However, as the weeks have dragged on without his return to play this season, Brooks' trade value has waned and now offers a buying opportunity. Throughout, Brooks was more of a 2025 proposition, and the new Chuba Hubbard contract offers pessimism to a clear starting role for Brooks. However, the reminder is that Hubbard's contract is not as optimistic as initially reported with guaranteed money (looks worse than Rhamondre Stevenson's recent contract as a point of comparison), and Brooks was a top-50 selection. This depth chart could easily flip by the end of the season or especially by Week 1.

The first two deals are classic veteran wide receiver flips in-season when having a quality string of production for future assets and insulation. The highlight of the last trade for Christian McCaffrey is how possessing the primary backup (Jordan Mason in this case) can help grease the wheels and make a trade execution easier for a contender looking to add an older running back like McCaffrey. That likely clinched the trade or even made adding the 2nd round pick possible here.

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RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco

The three games since Christian McCaffrey's return have been tepid by McCaffrey's lofty standards, bottoming out with fewer than 10 PPR points in Week 12. Brock Purdy missed the game, Deebo Samuel Sr. looks disinterested, and McCaffrey has had minimal chances to find the end zone. That said, McCaffrey is one of the rare workhorse running backs by market share in the NFL and possesses a 20+ point upside to win your week any game. The market offers both buy and sell opportunities depending on if you are bullish or worried about McCaffrey's season finish and future outlook.

Buying Opportunities

The key question when buying McCaffrey is if you are giving up anything with the upside this year and next close to McCaffrey. Chris Olave has yet to show a big ceiling. Aaron Jones is a similarly old running back and a looming free agent. Isiah Pacheco has yet to return and Kansas City is already talking about a hot hand approach or splitting the workload more than when Pacheco left his foundation back role. With significant questions at RB2-3-4, Kansas City could easily splash the depth chart in the offseason as well.

Selling Opportunities

Using a 1st and 2nd round selection to get significantly younger with an apex running back and asset like Jahmyr Gibbs is a no-brainer whether a contender or not. Also, multiple 1sts provide significant market flexibility for future trading and team-building alike in the second deal. Finally, Achane could easily outscore McCaffrey this year and next, plus is younger. Acquiring a future 2nd on top is pure gravy.

Check out all of Chad Parsons' content at Footballguys.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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