Dynasty Movement: Week 4

Our Dynasty staff took to a theme in this week's Dynasty Movement: players we are trying to trade before situations worsen. As always, the staff worked through multiple quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who fit this concern. For more Dynasty content, check out the Footballguys Dynasty Football show with Jagger May and myself. We do three episodes weekly, discussing a variety of relevant Dynasty trends. 

Dynasty Movement at Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville

Sam Wagman - Is it possible that Trevor Lawrence just isn't that great? Sure, there are plenty of reasons why he's stumbled so far in his career, and this season, the offensive line is horrible, but he just can't seem to get things over the hump. Currently QB15 in consensus rankings, I worry that Lawrence, even though he just signed a massive extension, won't be a rock-solid QB2 going forward. He is one of the league's most-sacked QBs this season, and this offense is quickly spiraling toward "must-sit" territory.

Julia Papworth - I wanted to believe in Trevor Lawrence; I did. He was the generational quarterback coming out of Clemson who would change the position forever. This 90-touchdown passing college quarterback landed in Jacksonville to turn around the culture and the team. 

But now, I am trying to get out of Lawrence like Homer Simpson backing up into the hedge in the front yard.

I was hopeful for Lawrence with the addition of Calvin Ridley last season, whether it was because of Ridley's time off from football, Lawrence's inability, or a combination of both - nothing came of it. Suppose you have Lawrence on a dynasty roster. In that case, you are looking at an almost 25-year-old quarterback the franchise has financially invested in beyond the point of getting out (ahem, Deshaun Watson), who is behind the 28th-ranked OL pass blocking efficiency, according to PFF.

He has the seventh-highest total pressure so far this season, with over 25% of them turning into sacks. I am doing everything I can to move Lawrence for any trade value.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis

Hutchinson Brown - If you can sell high still on Anthony Richardson due to the name he holds, I'd be doing that in Dynasty. He has proven mightily inconsistent as a passer, with almost nearing the league in turnover-worthy plays, six interceptions, and a bottom-six completion percentage in throws that range between zero and twenty air yards. He's missing easy throws and consistently making poor mistakes, just like in college. 

Not only is he not showing growth as a passer, but his rushing production is different from where we want it to be. He is running for under 40 yards a game, and those rushing numbers, along with his struggles as an inconsistent passer, will not lead to consistent fantasy success. If he is unable to fix his inconsistent passing, the Colts may question their future at quarterback down the line as well, which would completely tank Richardson's long-term value.

Jagger May - I'll argue for Anthony Richardson's long-term future and why now is a good time for uncompetitive rosters or folks with extra draft picks to buy.

We knew Anthony Richardson was a boom-or-bust prospect with few games. We just saw the flashes early and didn't have a large enough sample size to see the bad things as we do now. Richardson hasn't played 18 games since college and will need the reps to consistently make what seems like the easy throws or avoid egregious misses. When we look at the growth of former prospects like Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen, I'm willing to gamble on a player in an extraordinary situation like Indianapolis. Remember that it isn't the player's fault that our expectations got out of hand. The incorrect process was putting so much faith in his season-long value, not chasing his long-term upside.

Bryce Young, Carolina

Julia Papworth - I dreamed a dream that Dave Canales could fix Bryce Young. That dream has died. After benching Young, the organization said he would start again, but it is hard to believe this when Andy Dalton led the team to an impressive three-touchdown performance in a win over Las Vegas. Whatever the case, the sun has almost entirely set on Young's value in Dynasty. The only thing that could revive slightly would be a trade to an organization like the Rams or the Dolphins, where he could benefit under the tutelage of a completely different style of head coach. Even then, he wouldn't be startable. So far in his career in the NFL, Young has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and has the lowest PFF passer rating of a quarterback with at least ten dropbacks this season. 

Young is currently QB33 in our Footballguys consensus Dynasty Rankings, and if anyone will give you anything in Dynasty for Young, take it.

Caleb Williams, Chicago

Andy Hicks - Caleb Williams has come in for much criticism in his first few games. Most of it is unfair. Why a head coach and organization would throw their number one asset to the Wolves is a key reason why some franchises continue to suck. Leaving Williams to fend for himself behind that line and the lack of threat from the running game forces Williams to throw it over 50 times like he had to against the Colts. To his credit, Williams looks poised and capable of being a great quarterback. Will the Bears mess him up for good or just temporarily? It is hard for these guys to regain confidence when a team goes out of its way to destroy it. Look at Sam Darnold. Hopefully, Williams can avoid that and be the success Chicago envisioned. I am bumping his rating significantly.

Malik Willis, Green Bay

Andy Hicks - It is great to see a young quarterback, written off as a flop in Tennessee, come back and prove he was as good as the evaluators predicted. Sure, he isn't Lamar Jackson, but only one guy is. Willis has proven in his two starts that he can run an offense and be useful in this league. Sure, there are advantages to the system he has in Green Bay, but it still requires execution. Hopefully, his next team of choice isn't just a financial one but one that can put him in a position to succeed. He gets a solid boost.

Justin Fields, Pittsburgh

Andy Hicks - Chicago could have kept Fields, started him, and allowed Caleb Williams precious time to sit and watch. Franchises are far too impatient with their number one assets. The leap from college to the NFL is never easy, and time will benefit almost every young quarterback. Fields is lucky that he landed in a professionally run organization. With the Russell Wilson injury, Pittsburgh was fortunate to have a player of the caliber of Justin Fields to replace him. Maybe even keep the job for the season. Fields earns himself a decent rise in rankings. He is completing many passes and not overusing his running ability. That will give him a long-term future in the NFL.

Dynasty Movement at Running Back

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay

Sam Wagman - Rachaad White is a big one for me. He's currently RB15 in our Footballguys consensus Dynasty Rankings, but is in massive danger of tumbling down the charts. Todd Bowles noted after this past week that Bucky Irving has earned more work, and that, coupled with White's continuing poor efficiency metrics on the ground, signals a changing of the guard sooner rather than later. White will always be solid as a pass-catcher, but his days as a rare three-down workhorse back seem close to over.

Javonte Williams, Denver

Sam Wagman - Javonte Williams is another RB that I'm apprehensive about. He ranks fourth-worst in Rushing Yards over Expectation this season, averaging 2.2 yards per carry. The Broncos offense has been slow to start things off, but how can we value Williams as RB22 when he simply cannot get things going in this offense? It's a crowded RB room when healthy with Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime there, and even though Williams has faced 8+ defenders in the box 54% of the time this season (first in the NFL), I'm worried he gets jumped in the pecking order at some point.

Andy Hicks - The career of Javonte Williams is a case of what could have been. It doesn't help us now, as his 2.2 yards of carry this season indicates. Fourth-stringer Tyler Badie made Williams look like a statue in the fourth quarter against the Bucs. It is hard to see Williams returning and earning the coach's trust. Maybe he is a guy who can land a roster spot elsewhere and surprise us, but the brutality of the running back position makes him more than likely to fade away. A big fall in rankings.

James Conner, Arizona

Hutchinson Brown - James Conner is a solid running back in fantasy this year, averaging just over 14 PPR points per game. He's getting the volume and in the endzone twice this year. However, in reality, he hasn't looked amazing to me. He's looked like he's aged, and given that he hasn't played a full season in his entire career, the injury concerns loom. To add the cherry on top of that, Trey Benson has already started to get involved in the offense.

Conner's value is incredibly volatile and fragile due to those two key factors, so I would sell now while you can before things get bad.

D'Andre Swift, Chicago

Julia Papworth - At 25 years old in a Chicago offense that had potential and eyes on the future, D'Andre Swift looked to have a chance to have some dynasty value. After three weeks this season not finishing better than RB37, I have changed my mind, and it seems that Chicago may have as well. Swift's snap percentage has gone down every week, from 70% to 66% to 53%, and his running back rush share in week 3 was only 52%. The Bears got Roshcon Johnson on the field against the Colts, who is younger and more explosive, and Johnson did more with his 37% snap share than Swift did with his 53%. This season, Swift has the lowest YPA among running backs with at least ten rushing attempts, and he might be on his way to becoming a permanent backup running back. He is currently RB25 in our Footballguys consensus Dynasty Rankings, and he is fading quickly. 

Braelon Allen, NY Jets

Andy Hicks - All credit must go to the Jets for drafting a high-quality player like Braelon Allen at a draft discount. Allen himself has blamed his slide on a poor combine. The film itself has never disputed his talent, and in the first three games for the Jets, he indicates he could play himself into a 1b role for the team. Despite that, Breece Hall is elite, and Allen will have a promising long-term future. Patience may be required, but this is an asset worth valuing. A substantial upgrade was given.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay

Andy Hicks - Watching Rachaad White and Bucky Irving running the ball for the Bucs this year, you cannot believe who is the established starter and who is the unproven rookie. White looks horrible, and Irving is great so far. He was assumed to be the locked-in starter with White, but that has been upended with the fourth-round pick just looking much better. Irving should be lifted in his rankings, as it is hard to see him not taking this opportunity and making the most of it. White still is a good receiver, but his days of leading the carry count should be over.

Jonathon Brooks, Carolina

Jagger May -  This is less of a "dynasty movement," and more about "the buy window for Jonathon Brooks is about to close." Remember that the worry with Brooks is when he would return and, most importantly, if Bryce Young could lead an effective offense. One of those issues is answered. Andy Dalton is a high-end backup for a reason. Moreover, college quarterbacks are more athletic than ever, but they are far worse processors. So the Dave "The QB Whisperer Who Also Makes Productive RBs" Canales can cook up meaningful touches for an explosive back that was the clear-cut RB1.

Dynasty Movement at Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis

Sam Wagman -  I am worried about Michael Pittman Jr. He's WR28 in our dynasty rankings, but he's been a hot mess to start off the 2024 season so far as he acclimates to playing with Anthony Richardson. Richardson's style of play, which amounts to chucking the ball deep a ton, isn't conducive to Pittman's area of expertise, running short-intermediate routes and moving the chains. Pittman could tumble down rankings, and I'd like to move off of him ASAP if possible.

Julia Papworth - The WR28 in our Footballguys consensus Dynasty Rankings, Michael Pittman Jr., is slowly dropping in my rankings with every Anthony Richardson throw. We knew Richardson would make his fantasy hay in the rushing attack, but we were hopeful he would throw well enough to support one alpha pass catcher in Pittman. Not only does he have less than 100 yards receiving over three games, he only has 19 targets and one target in the red zone. The Indianapolis Colts have the third-lowest PFF passing grade, and 8% of Anthony Richardson's plays are turnover-worthy, making holding onto Pittman in Dynasty risky at best.

Jauan Jennings, San Francisco

Hutchinson Brown -Juan Jennings had a fantastic week four with 175 receiving yards and three touchdowns. I would sell this game for any long-term valuable assets you can get. He's a solid wide receiver and a great handcuff for when Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, and/or Brandon Aiyuk go down to injury, but he hasn't proven to be much more than that for the last couple of seasons. If a manager in your league will buy him for anything more valuable than that, I'd be happy to sell him. 

Andy Hicks - It is easy to write off the game Jauan Jennings had against the Rams as a one-off monster. That is a fair assessment. To give him credit, though, he has been with the team since being drafted as a seventh-round project in 2020 and made the most of his fourth and fifth-receiver chances behind Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey. With three of those players out against the Rams, he had to lift and did. Now would be a poor time to grab him if he is on another roster. Once the other guys return and Jennings returns to his two and three reception games, that's the time to pounce. The 49ers cannot afford to keep all these guys in 2025, and Jennings takes advantage here or elsewhere.

Tyreek Hill, Miami

Andy Hicks - I was trying to and succeeded before the start of the season, but now it would be trying to get something before all value disappears. Always sell high is the motto, but how many people believe that if and when Tua Tagovailoa returns, Hill regains his value? One cog was lost in the Miami offense, and the whole thing collapsed. Here, that cog is the most important one in Tagovailoa. Tyreek Hill, at age 30, is not the same asset as he was a year or two ago. Age will catch them all. He has the potential for many great games in the next few seasons, but a cumulative 1700+ yard season like his first two in Miami is a pipe dream. Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, and whoever else the Dolphins can trot out are causing a significant drop in quality that affects the team. Unless Tagovailoa comes back concussion-proof, this is such a shame. The NFL needs an offense like the Dolphins had.

Michael Wilson, Arizona

Andy Hicks - Michael Wilson looks like a starting wide receiver in the NFL. With Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride's more dominant targets, his stats may need to improve, but Wilson will get his share. If Wilson can continue to develop, he becomes a free agent and breaks out with his second franchise. If he picks the team carefully. He may still find good fantasy numbers in Arizona, but they are capped. A strong long-term investment could pay off here for fantasy managers.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City

Andy Hicks - If Rashee Rice did not have the off-season he had, his performances to date in 2024 would have been expected. It is hard to see such a talented player make stupid decisions. What he is doing merits another big jump in his rankings. He is playing like an elite receiver who is now the number-one option for the best quarterback in the league. Time to reflect on that and hope the Chiefs have a babysitting program in play once the Chiefs finish their season,

Darnell Mooney, Atlanta

Andy Hicks - Chicago drafted Darnell Mooney in the fifth round. He was a pleasant surprise for the Bears in 2020 and 2021. Fresh off a 1000-yard season, hopes were high in 2022. Injuries and a poor offense put an end to that. 2023 saw the arrival of D.J. Moore. After his worst season, Mooney signed a low-publicity free-agent deal with the Falcons. He has had a great start to his first year in Atlanta.  While he will not be an elite receiver, he holds significant value as a WR3. Kirk Cousins can spread the ball around, and the Falcons offense moves the ball well. A nice upgrade for Mooney

George Pickens, Pittsburgh and Zay Flowers, Baltimore

Jagger May - Now is the time to buy players like George Pickens and Zay Flowers. You want elite talents that are being targeted, and both are two sides of the same coin. Flowers is Top 15 in targets, and George Pickens is the Pittsburgh passing offense that's only being held back by offensive line penalties. Either of these can be had for a 1st, according to KTC, but they can still be had with a package deal in sharp leagues.

Dynasty Movement at Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore

Sam Wagman - Oh man, am I looking to move on from Mark Andrews. Things have gone from bad to worse, with Andrews running fewer routes than Charlie Kolar in the Week 3 win over the Cowboys, and John Harbaugh was less than concerned about it. That won't happen every week, but Andrews has not looked himself. With Isaiah Likely ready to contribute, will the Ravens force Andrews into the pass-catching game plan?

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia

Hutchinson Brown - I would see what you can get for Dallas Goedert. In the first two weeks of the season, when AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith were around, Goedert averaged just 3.5 catches for 35 yards. In 2023, he averaged about 4.2 catches for 41 yards a game.

He's just not a super involved piece of the Eagles' offense due to how consolidated the targets are on Smith and Brown. I would use this big game he just had as an opportunity to package him with another piece and try to buy low on a tight end at the top of the ranks who you believe will bounce back from their struggles.

Cole Kmet, Chicago

Andy Hicks - With tight end scoring down across the league, again Cole Kmet comes into contention as a starting option. Every year, Kmet gets dismissed for showier options. He ranked 7th and 8th over the last two years and has had three consecutive seasons with 50 or more catches. I don't know what he has done to receive such a lack of respect, but Kmet deserves better. I already had him higher than most. Let's move him up again.

Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati

Andy Hicks - Gesicki had three good seasons with the Dolphins from 2019 to 2021. He was a viable starting fantasy option. Diminishing returns occurred when Mike McDaniels became the head coach. Then came a lost season in New England. Gesicki lands with the Bengals and gets the opportunity to resurrect his fantasy career. Cincinnati has been a wasteland for fantasy tight ends of late, but this is the time for that to change. Gesicki moves up the rankings.