Dynasty Data: Startup Draft Reaches at WR

Photo: USA Today Sports

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A player's Dynasty ADP is largely a function of his redraft ADP and Age. Data modeling can help us quantify the strength of these connections.

A linear model built to predict a wide receiver's Dynasty ADP based only on their age and Redraft ADP returns an R-squared value of 0.957. An R-squared value of 1 would be a perfect connection. The 0.957 value indicates that about 95.7% of the variability in dynasty values can be explained by age and redraft value.

The most interesting aspect of these models is not the players whose Dynasty ADP is exactly what the model predicts. Instead, the insight comes from analyzing the outliers. In this week's four-part series of articles, we will highlight the running backs and wide receivers whose Dynasty ADPs most differ from what the model says their Dynasty ADP should be, based upon their age and Redraft ADP. For example, Jameson Williams is 23.3 years old and has a redraft ADP of 109 (according to Sleeper). The model says Williams should be going in the middle of the 8th round of dynasty startups (93.5 overall). Instead, his actual Dynasty ADP (111.5) is a full round and a half later. The model says Jameson Williams is a steal at his current Dynasty ADP, but is he really? 

We will investigate that question and examine the other running backs and wide receivers whose Dynasty ADPs are outliers according to the model.

Series: See RB Dynasty Startup Draft Steals here >>>
Series: See RB Dynasty Startup Draft Reaches here >>>
Series: See WR Dynasty Startup Draft Steals here >>>
Series: See WR Dynasty Startup Draft Reaches here >>>

Wide Receiver Dynasty Reaches

Let's look at the players the model predicts should be going later in Dynasty drafts than they actually are to see if we can identify potentially undervalued Dynasty targets.

Thoughts on Overvalued WRs

Model Dislikes Older Rookies. The first thing that stands out is that the model believes many of the older rookie wide receivers should be going later in dynasty drafts. This is understandable. Ricky Pearsall is only 0.5 years younger than Elijah Moore, who already has three NFL seasons under his belt. Age is something to be aware of when drafting a player like Pearsall or Luke McCaffrey in a dynasty startup. However, the gap between the predicted Dynasty ADP and the real Dynasty ADP of the rookies above is nothing to be concerned about. The main reason for the gap is that each rookie has an obvious long-term upside based on projected depth chart changes. It is highly unlikely the 49ers can keep both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel long-term. 

Stop Drafting Treylon Burks and Elijah Moore. There is no longer a believable upside case to be made for either Burks or Moore. Both are still relatively young but have been in the league long enough that we know what type of players they will be. After a few years, draft capital does not matter. Early reports from OTAs are not promising. Cedric Tillman appears to be ahead of Moore, and new head coach Brian Callahan recently noted that Treylon Burks will need to prove himself on special teams to be active on gamedays.

Be Cautious with Tyreek Hill. I remember someone starting their dynasty draft with Adrian Peterson and Rob Gronkowski as the two approached their 30th birthdays. The logic to justify the selections was, "I know they are old, but these two are just built different, and the normal aging rules do not apply." Both fell off the cliff almost instantly. The truth is that we don't know who will defy the typical age curve. No matter how talented the player is, using your first-round startup selection on a 30-year-old is taking a huge risk.

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