Footballguys staff got together to play a game of Buy, Hold, or Sell. They grouped and examined three similarly valued Dynasty players and placed them into each category.
The team looked at young wide receivers in Superflex Dynasty formats: Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jayden Reed.
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The Results (number of votes in parentheses)
- Buy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4), Jayden Reed (1), Jordan Addison (1)
- Hold: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2), Jayden Reed (2), Jordan Addison (2)
- Sell: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (0), Jayden Reed (3), Jordan Addison (3)
Each Staffer's Responses
Ryan Weisse
- Buy: Jayden Reed
- Hold: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Sell: Jordan Addison
Putting it bluntly, I'm buying Jayden Reed everywhere, so he had to land in that slot for this group. He will be the most productive receiver in Green Bay, and we saw a top-10 upside for parts of last season. Holding Jaxon Smtih-Njigba makes the most sense. Everyone seems down on him, so there is no trade value, but he will be much better than we saw in 2023. That leaves Jordan Addison as the sell. He's a former first-round pick who scored ten touchdowns as a rookie. With the questions at quarterback in Minnesota, his value might be slightly down, but that's also an excellent reason to move him now, in case it's worse than we thought.
Andy Hicks
- Buy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Hold: Jordan Addison
- Sell: Jayden Reed
These second-year receivers have great futures, so selling one needs to be at a higher price than expected.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba should start eating into Tyler Lockett's playing time. Although some were disappointed in his rookie season, he showed room for improvement. He is easier to get a hold of at a cheaper price.
A rookie quarterback will exacerbate Jordan Addison's Justin Jefferson problem. The upside is limited—in the short term, anyway. Patience is required.
Jayden Reed has the easiest path to being a number-one receiver and can be talked about when trying to move him, especially if injuries beset Christian Watson. Green Bay has a deep roster of young targets, and I wonder if Reed will consistently perform well year to year.
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Jason Wood
- Buy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Hold: Jayden Reed
- Sell: Jordan Addison
This is an enticing trio, and I view all three as assets worth keeping or acquiring. Smith-Njigba gets the buy ranking because his disappointing rookie season offers a discount we are unlikely to see again in his career. There’s no reason his redraft profile should be discounted yet, and he could become the Seahawks' most prized young offensive piece this year. Reed was, to my eyes, the best of the Packers receiving corps last season. But the unit is deep and young, which adds risk until we see how the roles and target share play out when they’re all healthy and available. Addison met my lofty expectations last year, but the quarterback switch significantly increases his bust risk.
Corey Spala
- Buy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Hold: Jordan Addison
- Sell: Jayden Reed
Seattle provided their first-round rookie wide receiver with a less-than-ideal situation. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron did not utilize Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s skillset to its fullest potential. I am buying him heading into year two before his untapped potential is found. Seattle hired Ryan Grubb to replace Waldron, and the expectation has been clear for Smith-Njigba: “a massive piece” for the offense, according to Grubb.
Green Bay has many receiving talents at wide receiver and tight end. This is not sufficient reason to sell a player; I do not believe in too many mouths to feed. It is fair to assume Reed figures to lead the offensive pass catchers. I think there is value to be traded with Reed. You can diversify into other positions, drop a tier at wide receiver, and/or acquire draft picks.
I do not believe Jordan Addison will sustain his 10-touchdown rookie season, but I do believe in his talent and role with Minnesota. I am not discouraged by Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy, admittedly a decline from Kirk Cousins. I am holding Addison as the perceived value has taken a hit with the uncertainty at quarterback. Situations change, while talent does not. Addison appears to be locked into another 100+ target season heading into year two.
Matt Waldman
- Buy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Hold: Jayden Reed
- Sell: Jordan Addison
This is the most difficult of the five to label. I could place them in any category and offer a good argument. If approaching this as a short-term investor, Addison is a sell, Smith-Njigba is a buy, and Reed is a hold.
Addison is a sell because if J.J. McCarthy isn't the resounding choice to start by mid-August, I have little faith in Sam Darnold. Addison's value will decline until the Vikings find a legitimate NFL starter, which could take 2-6 years. He'll still have low-end starter value, but he may not reach the heights we saw at points last year.
Smith-Njigba has a great work ethic, looks much improved from last year, and had promising moments last year. The Seahawks offense will be pass-heavy, and Smith-Njigba is the most likely to see his value rise.
Reed is in a crowded Packers' receiver room, but he's a hold because he's the best all-around weapon for Green Bay's passing offense. He has the speed to win downfield, the hands and routes to work over the middle, and the skill with the ball in his hands to win after the catch, as well as earn some of the Deebo Samuel work the Packers gave him last year. The other three options in Green Bay all have at least one legitimate question mark with their games. Reed doesn't.
Jeff Bell
- Buy: Jordan Addison
- Hold: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Sell: Jayden Reed
Not me buying on bad news. Addison was the best of the three during his rookie season, looking like a difference-making player. Yes, the quarterback transition is a concern, and an off-the-field incident is not great. But years of Dynasty have taught us to bet on talent.
Reed is full of excitement. All young receivers who flash tend to be in dynasty. He is in the best offense, but he also may have a better chance of falling short of realizing his ceiling. There are some concerning usage trends, particularly in two receiver sets.
Smith-Njigba held a buy window when the Seahawks restructured Tyler Lockett’s contract in March. As the summer and redraft season has heated up, expectations of him jumping Lockett in the pecking order also have. Hold the value here, as league-mates will likely target the earlier offseason price point.