NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Winners of 17 of their last 18 games, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions square off in a high-stakes NFC matchup with significant playoff implications on Thursday night. Interestingly, the Packers’ lone loss during this span came in Week 9, when they fell to the Lions 24-14. This week, Vegas oddsmakers predict another Lions victory, projecting a 28-24 final score in favor of Detroit.
For Showdown DFS formats, the Vegas odds and the relative lack of key injuries (details below) suggest a balanced roster construction. Aim to include at least two players from each team to build a lineup with the best chance of contending for a top prize. If you want to take a flyer on a roster that leans heavily towards the Lions, I think there is a possibility that Detroit proves to the world that they are the class of the NFC North and put a beatdown on the Packers; if that happens, a 5-1 roster distribution would differentiate you from the masses.
Injury Roundup
Green Bay will be without Romeo Doubs (concussion) for the second consecutive week, which benefitted Dontayvion Wicks last Sunday against the Dolphins. Wicks saw his weekly snap count almost double with Doubs missing the game. After Doubs, the Packers will most miss their two-time Pro-Bowl cornerback, Jaire Alexander, who has missed the previous two weeks with a knee injury. We should be careful to not overemphasize Alexander's absence, as the Packers' secondary has been stellar all year, including the (five) weeks he has missed a game due to injury.
The Lions benefitted from playing on the Thanksgiving Day slate and enter Thursday's matchup with a few extra days of rest. They are most banged up on their defensive line, where Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring) and D.J. Reader (shoulder) are already announced as inactive. Josh Paschal, a defensive end with two sacks in 2024, will also miss this contest with a knee injury. Collectively, these injuries could bode well for Josh Jacobs and the Packers' running game.