NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Winners of 17 of their last 18 games, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions square off in a high-stakes NFC matchup with significant playoff implications on Thursday night. Interestingly, the Packers’ lone loss during this span came in Week 9, when they fell to the Lions 24-14. This week, Vegas oddsmakers predict another Lions victory, projecting a 28-24 final score in favor of Detroit.

For Showdown DFS formats, the Vegas odds and the relative lack of key injuries (details below) suggest a balanced roster construction. Aim to include at least two players from each team to build a lineup with the best chance of contending for a top prize. If you want to take a flyer on a roster that leans heavily towards the Lions, I think there is a possibility that Detroit proves to the world that they are the class of the NFC North and put a beatdown on the Packers; if that happens, a 5-1 roster distribution would differentiate you from the masses.

Injury Roundup

Green Bay will be without Romeo Doubs (concussion) for the second consecutive week, which benefitted Dontayvion Wicks last Sunday against the Dolphins. Wicks saw his weekly snap count almost double with Doubs missing the game. After Doubs, the Packers will most miss their two-time Pro-Bowl cornerback, Jaire Alexander, who has missed the previous two weeks with a knee injury. We should be careful to not overemphasize Alexander's absence, as the Packers' secondary has been stellar all year, including the (five) weeks he has missed a game due to injury.

The Lions benefitted from playing on the Thanksgiving Day slate and enter Thursday's matchup with a few extra days of rest. They are most banged up on their defensive line, where Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring) and D.J. Reader (shoulder) are already announced as inactive. Josh Paschal, a defensive end with two sacks in 2024, will also miss this contest with a knee injury. Collectively, these injuries could bode well for Josh Jacobs and the Packers' running game.

Captain Considerations

1. David Montgomery
2. Jahmyr Gibbs
3. Josh Jacobs
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown

Green Bay Showdown Players

Quarterback

Jordan Love (FLEX)

Despite a recent surge by the Bears' passing offense on Thanksgiving, the Detroit Lions have consistently excelled in pass defense this season. Prior to that game, no quarterback had thrown for more than one touchdown against them. Given this strong defensive track record, I anticipate a return to form this week. Consequently, I'm not confident in the Packers' passing attack, including quarterback Jordan Love. While the projected game script might suggest Love as a viable option, I'm inclined to fade him against Detroit's formidable secondary.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs (CPT or FLEX)

Josh Jacobs has been a focal point of the Packers' offense since their Week 10 bye, averaging over 25 touches per game. This increased workload has revitalized his performance, placing him just behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry in rushing yards this season.

The Lions' defense is currently dealing with significant injuries, particularly along the defensive line. Key players such as Aidan Hutchinson, DJ Reader, and Malcolm Rodriguez are sidelined, which has weakened their run-stopping capabilities.

Given these circumstances, the Packers would be wise to leverage Jacobs' rejuvenated form to control the clock and keep the Lions' potent offense off the field. This strategy not only plays to Jacobs' strengths but also exploits the Lions' current defensive vulnerabilities, enhancing Green Bay's chances of orchestrating an upset.

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson (FLEX...maybe)
Jayden Reed (FLEX...maybe)
Dontayvion Wicks (FLEX)

Since the beginning of October, the Packers have had only two games with a 100-yard wide receiver, tempering enthusiasm for their receiving corps. Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are averaging just two catches per game since the Week 10 bye, yet both are priced above $6,500—a steep cost given their 2024 production.

Dontayvion Wicks, who stepped in for the injured Romeo Doubs last week, is a more affordable option at $4,200. Wicks played more snaps than Reed in that game and led this trio with four receptions. If you're considering a Packers wide receiver in Showdown contests, Wicks offers the most prudent value.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft (FLEX)

Tucker Kraft has emerged as a reliable option in the Packers' passing game, delivering double-digit fantasy points in 75% of his last eight games. Priced at $5,600, he offers solid value despite facing a formidable Lions defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Kraft's consistent performance and role in Green Bay's offense make him a viable selection, even in a challenging matchup. His recent track record suggests he can still produce valuable fantasy points against Detroit's stout defense.

Detroit Showdown Players

Quarterback

Jared Goff (FLEX)

Jared Goff's performance this season has exhibited both low floors and high ceilings, making his Week 13 outlook against the Green Bay Packers somewhat unpredictable. The Lions certainly have the offensive capability to surpass 30 points; however, the distribution of these points—whether through Goff's passing or the rushing efforts of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery—remains uncertain.

The strength of the Packers’ secondary, combined with the possibility of the Lions dominating early, suggests that Detroit may lean on their run game. If the Lions build a comfortable lead, Goff may not need to throw extensively through all four quarters. While Goff possesses significant upside, the matchup dynamics and potential game script could favor a run-heavy approach, limiting his fantasy ceiling in this contest.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs (CPT or FLEX)
David Montgomery (CPT or FLEX)

A key factor in the Lions' impressive 11-1 record this season has been their dominant rushing attack, powered by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. This dynamic duo has combined for over 2,200 all-purpose yards and 22 touchdowns, far outpacing any other running back tandem in the NFL. However, their success creates a dilemma for fantasy managers in Showdown contests: how should we approach rostering them? Should we choose one? If so, which one? Or should we roster both to secure full coverage of the Lions' ground game? If we choose the latter, it likely means sacrificing Amon-Ra St. Brown, one of the top-tier options on this slate.

The challenge is further complicated by the Lions’ consistent 50-50 split in playing time and opportunities between the two backs, making it nearly impossible to predict who will have the bigger game. As such, the recommended approach is to employ strategic lineup construction with two main options:

1. Roster David Montgomery, the cheaper option, as he is likely to have lower ownership than Gibbs, providing a leverage play.
2. Roster both Montgomery and Gibbs, a contrarian strategy that few will adopt. This approach banks on the Lions establishing an early lead, limiting their reliance on the passing game.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown (CPT or FLEX)
Jameson Williams (FLEX)
Tim Patrick (FLEX)

The Lions' receiving corps is essentially limited to the players listed above, with little depth beyond them. Kalif Raymond suffered a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, and Allen Robinson II is playing a minimal role, logging just a handful of snaps per game. This solidifies Amon-Ra St. Brown as the clear leader of the group. St. Brown has seen seven or more targets in each of the Lions' last five games and remains Jared Goff's go-to option. With his combination of a high floor and significant upside, he is a prime candidate for the Captain slot in your lineup.

A tier below St. Brown is Jameson Williams, who, in his third NFL season, is finally developing into the player Detroit envisioned when they drafted him in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Williams' usage has increased in recent weeks, and he flashed his potential with a 100+ yard performance in this explosive Lions offense within the last month. However, at $7K, he isn't a must-play, especially with Tim Patrick available at a 50% discount. Patrick is an excellent salary-saving alternative, having played 70% of the team's snaps last week in Raymond's absence. He should continue to see significant playing time, making him a strong flex consideration in Showdown formats.

Tight End

Sam LaPorta (FLEX)

Kickers and Defenses

Given the likely high-scoring nature of this contest, both kickers are viable options, though there are arguments against each. For the Lions, Jake Bates has been nearly flawless this season, but Detroit's efficiency in the red zone—ranking sixth in the league—has limited his fantasy production. With only 20 field goal attempts across 12 games, Bates' opportunities have been sparse, making him a less enticing option despite his accuracy.

For Green Bay, Brandon McManus has been outstanding since taking over for Brayden Narveson in mid-October. McManus has missed just one field goal in that span and remains perfect on PATs, making him a reliable choice if the Packers can keep up offensively.

Neither defense stands out in a game projected to be high-scoring by Vegas. However, if your lineup requires a defense, Detroit is the better option. In their Week 9 matchup, the Lions held the Packers to just six points until a late garbage-time touchdown by Emanuel Wilson. If Detroit can deliver a similar performance at home this Thursday, their defense could offer value as a low-rostered punt play in Showdown lineups.